Political Commentator
Member
Do you think it will be Hilary Clinton, or somebody else?
Please explain your answer.
Please explain your answer.
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Who will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
- Thread starter Political Commentator
- Start date
My money's on Bernie.
(I hope he hates the idea of people betting money on him.)
(I hope he hates the idea of people betting money on him.)
It looks like it is going to be a close race for a while. Both Hill and the Bern have strong positive and negative support. The Repobo party is similarly fractured. This means the defining issues have not yet been identified. The economy is still in a fragile state. There are some tender international issues. Trump and Cruz are scary candidates. If we could remove them, strategically, the country would be better off. But the election process seems to do the opposite. It gives them a platform to demogogue. With the nomination in the summer, it could be a while before the key issues are fully in play. So keep looking for these defining issues, and maintain an open mind.
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Sultan Of Swing
Well-Known Member
If Bernie maintains momentum he wins. That is a huge "if" though, and the pessimist inside me says Hillary will recover eventually and win it.
^ an interesting way to pose the question.
The Dem process is still open and will likely be close until the nominating convention. The supers play a role but will not dominate.
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Deathbydefault
Apistevist Asexual Atheist
"or somebody else"
Hillary fan?
Bernie will likely win so long as he keeps his momentum and talking points the same.
The more I research the guy and look at his old speeches, the more potential I think he has than any other candidate.
Midnight Rain
Well-Known Member
TBH its really close. But its a matter of two things. 1st is time and the 2nd is under handed politics.
More time and more debates seem to insinuate that Bernie will win. Each debate he gets a huge boost in the polls and catches up little by little to Hillary. He has had a steady increase with no significant drops over the past year. Hillary however has consistantly dropped in popularity over the last two months. She was well over 50% sitting comfy. However in Feb we have seen her fall under 50% for the first time in a long time. The reason why THAT is so significant is because Bernie has had a constant rise without much fall from Clinton. That means most of the Bernie supporters are from the "undecided" camp moving on to him rather than pulling from Hillary. But now we see a significant percentage of people moving from Hillary to Bernie. At her height of popularity some time last December she was at 56% and now she is at 48%. That is a 8 point loss and I'll bet a pretty penny that all of them (or at least most) went to Bernie.
Clinton has shown a significant advantage in two major states. South Carolina and Nevada. Nevada was basically a tie as he lost by 3 percentage points in is second toughest state. South Carolina will be his toughest fight.
the second issue is under handed politics. Clinton is far better than him at being a politician and throwing mud. But thankfully that has backfired on her as Bernie's issue based campaign has gained momentum and it puts Hillary in a negative light. She might regroup and attempt to do something more effective. But Bernie has a lot of ammo that he could sling at her if he so chose. There is also the looming inditement that could kill her campaign.
Deathbydefault
Apistevist Asexual Atheist
It is quite a funny thing, those commercials Hillary approves.
Bernie runs a straightforward campaign and takes pride in being completely politically transparent.
Too bad for her, ads 'attacking' (pfft) Bernie only show more people that he is the more progressive and reliable of the them.
Bernie wont play tough politics, he knows he's in the best position possible right now.
He's been consistent in politics for 30years, runs the most humanist and modern of ideas through our heads, and has overall been only issue based.
If he starts mud slinging now he'll only give her ammunition, he's doing the right thing by just being himself.
We the supporters have been the ones doing the mud slinging (and have done a damn fine job).
Sanders has lost some luster in MI over his bumbling & nasty kibitzing over the Flint water debacle.
Even Mrs Revolt (a life long Dem) regrets voting for him in the primary.
(At the risk of violating political opacity & marital bliss, I counselled that Hillary is still worse.)
This does tell me that Bernie can be a mud slinging partisan.
It's only a question of who receives the poo.
Deathbydefault
Apistevist Asexual Atheist
Perhaps I'm not fully aware of everything he's said on this issue.
Mud slinging those /in the wrong/ isn't something that can be used against him, at least not too successfully
Maybe some type of maturity can be called into question, but I see no issue with it as of yet.
It's a politically safe game because he's attacking a Republican.
But it's also less effective in the primary.
Deathbydefault
Apistevist Asexual Atheist
Perhaps to the more sensitive voters.
The younger voters and those that only care about a candidates rationality and consistency will give little weight to this situation.
It'll appeal to those who care little for what is politically correct as well.
I myself enjoyed it because he was playing tough politics.
There's "tough", & then there's simplistic obfuscatory demonization.
I imagine it's an absentee ballot thingie.
I had some opportunity, but I don't do mischief in other people's parties.
Deathbydefault
Apistevist Asexual Atheist
I say it was both, what say you?