Why the Fermi Paradox doesn't work.

[Mycroft]

For the uninitiated, the Fermi Paradox (basically) posits that if an alien civilisation exists at all, we'd have seen some kind of evidence of it by now.

But this doesn't work for two main reasons:

1) The size of the universe

in relation to

2) The speed of light.

Now the closest star to us is the Sun. It's 150 Million Kilometres away and it takes light eight minutes to travel that far.

So the sun is 1.521 x 10^-5 light (0.000016) years away.

So it takes light 8 minutes to travel 0..000016. Now make that one light year. It now takes light 365 days to travel that one light year.

Now make that 100,000 light years (roughly the size of the galaxy).

Now make that 2.2 Billion light years (next galaxy)

Now make that 13.8 billion light years (theoretical size of the observable universe so far).


Why does the paradox fail?

Because even within the rather small scope of 100,000 years, an entire civilisation of aliens could have risen, and become extinct.

In 13 billion years, countless civilisations could have lived and died.

And light from those events wouldn't have reached the earth yet (and, indeed, may never will).

 

[Riverwolf]

Another reason is in the Drake Equation itself (which calculates the possible number of civilizations at any one time in the Galaxy). One of the variables is "likelihood of life of a given planet to become intelligent" (or something to that effect). That falls apart right away, because intelligence isn't a single thing, nor does having intelligence that's 1-1 with human intelligence guarantee that this species will develop any form of advanced technology. We had this degree of intelligence for FAR FAR longer than we've been farming, let alone sending radio signals into space.

 

[Mycroft]

Another reason is in the Drake Equation itself (which calculates the possible number of civilizations at any one time in the Galaxy). One of the variables is "likelihood of life of a given planet to become intelligent" (or something to that effect). That falls apart right away, because intelligence isn't a single thing, nor does having intelligence that's 1-1 with human intelligence guarantee that this species will develop any form of advanced technology. We had this degree of intelligence for FAR FAR longer than we've been farming, let alone sending radio signals into space.

I believe the drake equation also makes a lot of assumptions about what kind of life can become intelligent. Which is basically 'anything like us'. I believe this assumption to be foolhardy.

In fact, since intelligence (in us) is largely a electro-chemical affair, I would speculate that anything else capable of generate similar electrical pathways (gas, silica, crystalline, certain heavy metals and superheavy elements) might also be capable of something like intelligence.

 

[George-ananda]

For the uninitiated, the Fermi Paradox (basically) posits that if an alien civilisation exists at all, we'd have seen some kind of evidence of it by now.

Just off hand, this seems wrong. They may not want to be detected in any direct and obvious way so the evidence is more subtle.

 

[Revoltingest]

It isn't a paradox because it's quite likely that we just don't have the technology to detect civilizations which are very far away.
Nothing is proven or disproven.

 

[Tiberius]

I always figured this...

Let's say that an alien civilisation DOES develop to the point where it can travel between the stars. It can create colonies, trade with other races, etc... Now, they will do this in one of two ways. Option one: they will travel sublight, in which case their spaceships are likely to be generational ships or other long-term vehicles, simply because it takes a long time to get anywhere in space if you are going slower than light. Option two: they have some kind of faster than light drive. I don't mean like warp drive in Star Trek. It could be wormholes or something. But, they have some way of getting from point A to point B faster than a beam of light can make that same journey.

Now, what does this suggest?

Option one: They are not likely to use radio communications. Why would they? Their colonies are so far away that it would take decades to have a chat. Such communication is unfeasible. They are more likely to let their colonies be self governing, self sustaining, with very little if any direct communication. But in any case, listening for radio signals is a waste of time.

Option two: They are not likely to use radio communication. Why would they? Why would they use a method of communication that is slower than their ships? It amkes about as much sense as me letting my neighbour borrow my lawnmower by mailing it to him. If he lives next door, where I can travel quickly, why would I use such a slow method of communication? Likewise, if the aliens have FTL travel utilising wormholes or something, then they'd send their communications along with their ships.

Another possibility that could occur in either case is that they may have some kind of FTL communication, perhaps using quantum entanglement. But in any case, listening for radio signals is a waste of time.

 

[allfoak]

Perhaps aliens have been detected but not in the way we would expect.

Suppose for a moment that detection is not about physical space and time but spiritual dimensions.
What if aliens were in a different dimension rather than far away?
Then detection would take on a whole new meaning and would explain why some see them and others do not.

 

[Mycroft]

Suppose for a moment that detection is not about physical space and time but spiritual dimensions.

No.

 

[Mycroft]

I always figured this...

Let's say that an alien civilisation DOES develop to the point where it can travel between the stars. It can create colonies, trade with other races, etc... Now, they will do this in one of two ways. Option one: they will travel sublight, in which case their spaceships are likely to be generational ships or other long-term vehicles, simply because it takes a long time to get anywhere in space if you are going slower than light. Option two: they have some kind of faster than light drive. I don't mean like warp drive in Star Trek. It could be wormholes or something. But, they have some way of getting from point A to point B faster than a beam of light can make that same journey.

Now, what does this suggest?

Option one: They are not likely to use radio communications. Why would they? Their colonies are so far away that it would take decades to have a chat. Such communication is unfeasible. They are more likely to let their colonies be self governing, self sustaining, with very little if any direct communication. But in any case, listening for radio signals is a waste of time.

Option two: They are not likely to use radio communication. Why would they? Why would they use a method of communication that is slower than their ships? It amkes about as much sense as me letting my neighbour borrow my lawnmower by mailing it to him. If he lives next door, where I can travel quickly, why would I use such a slow method of communication? Likewise, if the aliens have FTL travel utilising wormholes or something, then they'd send their communications along with their ships.

Another possibility that could occur in either case is that they may have some kind of FTL communication, perhaps using quantum entanglement. But in any case, listening for radio signals is a waste of time.

You raise interesting points. And some that I have mused upon before. Human beings are, of course, only just beginning their experiments with quantum teleportation. If we can do that, then X-Civilisation can, too. Probably. Which means, perhaps, they may not even use starships at all, but a series of teleportation networks between planets. Which would make them even more difficult to detect until we can proper read quantum fluctuations and suchlike.

 

[allfoak]

No.

Yes

 

[BSM1]

I believe the drake equation also makes a lot of assumptions about what kind of life can become intelligent. Which is basically 'anything like us'. I believe this assumption to be foolhardy.

In fact, since intelligence (in us) is largely a electro-chemical affair, I would speculate that anything else capable of generate similar electrical pathways (gas, silica, crystalline, certain heavy metals and superheavy elements) might also be capable of something like intelligence.

Not sure if you've already answered my question, but doesn't the equation (or any equation on the subject for that matter) make the assumption that we are subjectively judging "intelligence" by only our definition of it?

 

[Rick O'Shez]

Why does the paradox fail?
Because even within the rather small scope of 100,000 years, an entire civilisation of aliens could have risen, and become extinct.
In 13 billion years, countless civilisations could have lived and died.
And light from those events wouldn't have reached the earth yet (and, indeed, may never will).

I agree, the Fermi Paradox is full of holes and now outdated.

 

[te_lanus]

It isn't a paradox because it's quite likely that we just don't have the technology to detect civilizations which are very far away.
Nothing is proven or disproven.

True, look at the WOW signal, we still have no clue what it is, who made it and what it means.

If one takes the difference in technology between punch-cards and 100gb/s fiber internet. And we equate our technology to punchcards and alien tech to the 100gb/s fiber, one start to see the trouble we have in trying to decode any signal we might find.

 

[ak.yonathan]

Why is it so hard to accept that humans might be the first ever intelligent species to evolve? I say this because the probability of intelligent life appearing is very low.