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Will Putin invade Poland if Trump is elected?

Truthseeker

Non-debating member when I can help myself
Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up

Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump said that while president he told NATO leaders that he would “encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to alliance members that are "delinquent" in meeting the group’s spending targets.

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?'” Trump recalled during the rally. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”

The remarks seem to suggest that Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, might not abide by NATO’s collective-defense clause for members that haven't paid enough....

A POLITICO report last month revealed that Trump had told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that the U.S. wouldn’t come to Europe’s defense if it was attacked. Trump alleged NATO countries subsequently spent “billions and billions” of dollars on their defenses in the wake of his threat — a claim that has not been substantiated.

Tucker Carlson Promised an Unedited Putin. The Result Was Boring

I can’t get one passage out of my mind. In the history-lecture portion of the interview, when Putin got to 1939, he said, “Poland coöperated with Germany, but then it refused to comply with Hitler’s demands. . . . By not ceding the Danzig Corridor to Hitler, Poles forced him, they overplayed their hand and they forced Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking Poland.” (This is my translation.) The idea that the victim of the attack serves as its instigator by forcing the hand of the aggressor is central to all of Putin’s explanations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. To my knowledge, though, this was the first time he described Hitler’s aggression in the same terms.

Putin has reproduced Hitler’s rhetoric before. Ten years ago, announcing the annexation of Crimea, he seemed to borrow from Hitler’s speech on the annexation of Sudetenland. At the time, I assumed that the language had come from a speechwriter who knew what they were doing while Putin may not have. But the way Putin described the beginning of the Second World War in his interview with Carlson suggests that, although he keeps accusing Ukraine of fostering Nazism, in his mind he might see himself as Hitler, but perhaps a wilier one, one who can make inroads into the United States and create an alliance with its presumed future President.

It’s telling, too, that Putin took the time to accuse Poland of both allying with Nazi Germany and inciting Hitler’s aggression. As he has done with Ukraine in the past, he is positioning Poland as an heir to Nazism. He mentioned Poland more than thirty times in his conversation with Tucker. If I were Poland, I’d be scared.

I don't know about you, but this looks scary to me. What would happen if Trump were elected? Would Putin invade Poland after finishing Ukraine off?
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
I think it's unlikely, but I do think it's certainly possible. I think we are closer to World War 3 than we have been at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I try not to worry about it too much though. I will vote against Trump and express my concern about the issue but that's all I can do. No point in worrying about something out of my control. If it happens, it happens. Try to relax, do things that you enjoy, live in the present moment and accept the unknown.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up

Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump said that while president he told NATO leaders that he would “encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to alliance members that are "delinquent" in meeting the group’s spending targets.

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?'” Trump recalled during the rally. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”

The remarks seem to suggest that Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, might not abide by NATO’s collective-defense clause for members that haven't paid enough....

A POLITICO report last month revealed that Trump had told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that the U.S. wouldn’t come to Europe’s defense if it was attacked. Trump alleged NATO countries subsequently spent “billions and billions” of dollars on their defenses in the wake of his threat — a claim that has not been substantiated.

Tucker Carlson Promised an Unedited Putin. The Result Was Boring

I can’t get one passage out of my mind. In the history-lecture portion of the interview, when Putin got to 1939, he said, “Poland coöperated with Germany, but then it refused to comply with Hitler’s demands. . . . By not ceding the Danzig Corridor to Hitler, Poles forced him, they overplayed their hand and they forced Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking Poland.” (This is my translation.) The idea that the victim of the attack serves as its instigator by forcing the hand of the aggressor is central to all of Putin’s explanations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. To my knowledge, though, this was the first time he described Hitler’s aggression in the same terms.

Putin has reproduced Hitler’s rhetoric before. Ten years ago, announcing the annexation of Crimea, he seemed to borrow from Hitler’s speech on the annexation of Sudetenland. At the time, I assumed that the language had come from a speechwriter who knew what they were doing while Putin may not have. But the way Putin described the beginning of the Second World War in his interview with Carlson suggests that, although he keeps accusing Ukraine of fostering Nazism, in his mind he might see himself as Hitler, but perhaps a wilier one, one who can make inroads into the United States and create an alliance with its presumed future President.

It’s telling, too, that Putin took the time to accuse Poland of both allying with Nazi Germany and inciting Hitler’s aggression. As he has done with Ukraine in the past, he is positioning Poland as an heir to Nazism. He mentioned Poland more than thirty times in his conversation with Tucker. If I were Poland, I’d be scared.

I don't know about you, but this looks scary to me. What would happen if Trump were elected? Would Putin invade Poland after finishing Ukraine off?

Which countries haven't paid their NATO bill in full? Trump makes it seem like these countries are paying for some kind of service that could be cut off if they're delinquent in paying their bill. It's a strange way to approach a military alliance, but that's Trump for you. We still have a treaty obligation to aid any NATO country which is attacked, regardless of whether they pay or not.

However, I don't think Putin has any cause to invade Poland. What would be the point? Besides, even if he wins in Ukraine, his military is practically spent. He'd have nothing left to go after Poland.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Putin has a list of countries to invade, eg, Moldova.
A Trump presidency would signal less resistance
to Putin's re-building the USSR.
But Trump is fickle, & if Putin offends him in any
way, I'd expect Trump to react with vengeance
against Putin & Russia.
In short....I predict that it's unpredictable.
 

Altfish

Veteran Member
IMHO if he attacks anywhere it is more likely to be Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia before Poland. But yes, if he is encouraged by the West, he'll keep going.
 

Truthseeker

Non-debating member when I can help myself
Putin has a list of countries to invade, eg, Moldova.
A Trump presidency would signal less resistance
to Putin's re-building the USSR.
But Trump is fickle, & if Putin offends him in any
way, I'd expect Trump to react with vengeance
against Putin & Russia.
In short....I predict that it's unpredictable.
Maybe, but Trump appears to be transactional. Remember how McCarthy criticized Trump after 1/6 , then kissed and made up, and then Trump backed him when McCarthy said the right things?
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Maybe, but Trump appears to be transactional. Remember how McCarthy criticized Trump after 1/6 , then kissed and made up, and then Trump backed him when McCarthy said the right things?
Either transactional or fickle.
Both pose big risks.
If Putin gives Trump some love, Trump might
give him permission to invade neighbors.
 

JIMMY12345

Active Member
Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t pay up

Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump said that while president he told NATO leaders that he would “encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want” to alliance members that are "delinquent" in meeting the group’s spending targets.

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?'” Trump recalled during the rally. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent.’ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”

The remarks seem to suggest that Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, might not abide by NATO’s collective-defense clause for members that haven't paid enough....

A POLITICO report last month revealed that Trump had told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that the U.S. wouldn’t come to Europe’s defense if it was attacked. Trump alleged NATO countries subsequently spent “billions and billions” of dollars on their defenses in the wake of his threat — a claim that has not been substantiated.

Tucker Carlson Promised an Unedited Putin. The Result Was Boring

I can’t get one passage out of my mind. In the history-lecture portion of the interview, when Putin got to 1939, he said, “Poland coöperated with Germany, but then it refused to comply with Hitler’s demands. . . . By not ceding the Danzig Corridor to Hitler, Poles forced him, they overplayed their hand and they forced Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking Poland.” (This is my translation.) The idea that the victim of the attack serves as its instigator by forcing the hand of the aggressor is central to all of Putin’s explanations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. To my knowledge, though, this was the first time he described Hitler’s aggression in the same terms.

Putin has reproduced Hitler’s rhetoric before. Ten years ago, announcing the annexation of Crimea, he seemed to borrow from Hitler’s speech on the annexation of Sudetenland. At the time, I assumed that the language had come from a speechwriter who knew what they were doing while Putin may not have. But the way Putin described the beginning of the Second World War in his interview with Carlson suggests that, although he keeps accusing Ukraine of fostering Nazism, in his mind he might see himself as Hitler, but perhaps a wilier one, one who can make inroads into the United States and create an alliance with its presumed future President.

It’s telling, too, that Putin took the time to accuse Poland of both allying with Nazi Germany and inciting Hitler’s aggression. As he has done with Ukraine in the past, he is positioning Poland as an heir to Nazism. He mentioned Poland more than thirty times in his conversation with Tucker. If I were Poland, I’d be scared.

I don't know about you, but this looks scary to me. What would happen if Trump were elected? Would Putin invade Poland after finishing Ukraine off?
No one really knows.He said he would not invade Ukraine he did.Depends on the US election.With Trump he can tell the USA what he wants done.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Which countries haven't paid their NATO bill in full?

I found the answer to my own question: Nato: Which countries are paying their fair share on defence?

NATO%20defence%20expenditure%20estimates%20for%202023%20120224%20CREDIT%20NATO.jpg

Poland is paying a higher percentage than the U.S. In fact, all the countries which border Russia or at a higher risk are paying above 2%. Those that might feel a bit buffered from Russia are paying less.

It's interesting to note that Canada's spending level is close to the bottom. Does that mean that if Russia invades Canada, Trump would not want to aid in their defense? "You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent."
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Which countries haven't paid their NATO bill in full? Trump makes it seem like these countries are paying for some kind of service that could be cut off if they're delinquent in paying their bill. It's a strange way to approach a military alliance, but that's Trump for you. We still have a treaty obligation to aid any NATO country which is attacked, regardless of whether they pay or not.

However, I don't think Putin has any cause to invade Poland. What would be the point? Besides, even if he wins in Ukraine, his military is practically spent. He'd have nothing left to go after Poland.
Trump wanted to run the country like a business: don't pay your rent, and you're out. He boasts of his nationalism -- no family of nations, just "USA! USA! USA!"
He's not a Big Picture sort of guy.

New Russia has a history of imperial expansionism, from friendly occupations like Belarus or Transnistra, to more aggressive adventurism into S. Ossetia, Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and the W. Ukrainian oblasts, and now the rest of Ukraine.
If he acquires ("re-unites") Ukraine I expect he'll take some time off to lick his wounds and remodel his military, but I doubt he'll change his dream of reässemblng the Soviet sphere of influence.

As for Poland -- too big a bite. There are other, more manageable territories to acquire.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Trump wanted to run the country like a business: don't pay your rent, and you're out. He boasts of his nationalism -- no family of nations, just "USA! USA! USA!"
He's not a Big Picture sort of guy.

New Russia has a history of imperial expansionism, from friendly occupations like Belarus or Transnistra, to more aggressive adventurism into S. Ossetia, Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and the W. Ukrainian oblasts, and now the rest of Ukraine.
If he acquires ("re-unites") Ukraine I expect he'll take some time off to lick his wounds and remodel his military, but I doubt he'll change his dream of reässemblng the Soviet sphere of influence.

As for Poland -- too big a bite. There are other, more manageable territories to acquire.

It's hard to predict what Russia may do or how the U.S. or NATO would respond. I think it will probably end up as an eventual cease-fire in Ukraine, but no real settlement. The current front lines would become the de facto "border" and probably end up as something analogous to the North and South Korean border.
 

sayak83

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Either transactional or fickle.
Both pose big risks.
If Putin gives Trump some love, Trump might
give him permission to invade neighbors.
Trump thinks like a Mafia boss and treats US army as his hired goons. You need to pay protection money to your Mafia boss to get protection from rival gangs you see....
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
Trump wanted to run the country like a business: don't pay your rent, and you're out. He boasts of his nationalism -- no family of nations, just "USA! USA! USA!"
He's not a Big Picture sort of guy.

New Russia has a history of imperial expansionism, from friendly occupations like Belarus or Transnistra, to more aggressive adventurism into S. Ossetia, Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and the W. Ukrainian oblasts, and now the rest of Ukraine.
If he acquires ("re-unites") Ukraine I expect he'll take some time off to lick his wounds and remodel his military, but I doubt he'll change his dream of reässemblng the Soviet sphere of influence.

As for Poland -- too big a bite. There are other, more manageable territories to acquire.
The Baltic States are a more likely goal. Think of Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap.

Those countries already have minority populations of Russian speakers whom Putin could pretend suffer some kind of discrimination and need "protection" from their "Russian brothers". A bit like how the US colonised Tejas.;) ...though the parallel far from exact.
 
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