Worldwide Immigration Emergency (it's about overshoot)

[icehorse]

This thread is meant to broaden the scope of the immigration emergency thread in the NA politics forum.

Europe has been experiencing problems due to its immigration policies of the last several decades. For the sake of discussion, let's say Europe has recently brought in 50 million immigrants.

The US is experiencing problems due to its immigration policies, let's say we've brought in 20 million or so. These numbers, 50 million and 20 million are probably not that accurate, but I think they're the correct order of magnitude. Imagine what would happen if a BILLION people needed to immigrate?

All of this is a symptom of a larger problem - ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT (overshoot). Overshoot is the term used to summarize all the ways in which humans are using our planet's resources in unsustainable ways. Loss of fresh water, loss of topsoil, pollution, loss of species, and so on.

In the coming decades, overshoot will manifest in many ways including climate change, rising sea levels, droughts, and so on. I'd say it's not unreasonable to predict that a BILLION people will be displaced from their homes in the coming decades. So what we're seeing in Europe and NA is just the canary in the coal mine. We've got to stop goofing around with our day to day nonsense, zoom out, and really focus on overshoot. The good news is that when it comes to overshoot, we're ALL in this together. It is a concern and fight we can all join in together.

 

[amorphous_constellation]

Well I think maybe an important thing to do, is to think about the human timeline in relation to this.. paired with resource usage, and resource renewal rate. But I think one thing to realize, is that for most of history, I don't think we were really maxing out the bank of nature all that much. I think that for most of our 100-200 thousand year history, we were kind of in a struggle against nature, (even with probably a lot of global movement - nomadism as opposed to immigration) to get much of anything from it.. am I wrong? I guess then, the small point I'd make is that I might be skeptical that we have an accurate concept of equilibrium with nature. We struggle against it, historically, so maybe we don't actually have an accurate concept of working with it. I don't know

 

[Twilight Hue]

This thread is meant to broaden the scope of the immigration emergency thread in the NA politics forum.

Europe has been experiencing problems due to its immigration policies of the last several decades. For the sake of discussion, let's say Europe has recently brought in 50 million immigrants.

The US is experiencing problems due to its immigration policies, let's say we've brought in 20 million or so. These numbers, 50 million and 20 million are probably not that accurate, but I think they're the correct order of magnitude. Imagine what would happen if a BILLION people needed to immigrate?

All of this is a symptom of a larger problem - ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT (overshoot). Overshoot is the term used to summarize all the ways in which humans are using our planet's resources in unsustainable ways. Loss of fresh water, loss of topsoil, pollution, loss of species, and so on.

In the coming decades, overshoot will manifest in many ways including climate change, rising sea levels, droughts, and so on. I'd say it's not unreasonable to predict that a BILLION people will be displaced from their homes in the coming decades. So what we're seeing in Europe and NA is just the canary in the coal mine. We've got to stop goofing around with our day to day nonsense, zoom out, and really focus on overshoot. The good news is that when it comes to overshoot, we're ALL in this together. It is a concern and fight we can all join in together.

People need to learn to manage their own countries. If they actually did, they wouldn't migrate elsewhere.

Look at El Salvador. The government is on the right track. Murders fell 70 percent according to a Reuters article I read as they are doing a massive crackdown on gangs there.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-says-murders-fell-70-2023-it-cracked-down-gangs-2024-01-03/

 

[icehorse]

People need to learn to manage their own countries. If they actually did, they wouldn't migrate elsewhere.

Look at El Salvador. The government is on the right track. Murders fell 70 percent according to a Reuters article I read as they are doing a massive crackdown on gangs there.

That will help, but it will not cure overshoot.

When sea levels rise, a billion people will be displaced. And Greenland's glaciers are melting much faster than anticipated. And the math is not hard, when Greenland's glaciers melt, the sea level with rise about 20 feet. Bye-bye south Florida, bye-bye Manhattan, bye-bye much of SE Asia...

 

[Revoltingest]

That will help, but it will not cure overshoot.

When sea levels rise, a billion people will be displaced. And Greenland's glaciers are melting much faster than anticipated. And the math is not hard, when Greenland's glaciers melt, the sea level with rise about 20 feet. Bye-bye south Florida, bye-bye Manhattan, bye-bye much of SE Asia...

We appear to be agreeing.

 

[Twilight Hue]

That will help, but it will not cure overshoot.

When sea levels rise, a billion people will be displaced. And Greenland's glaciers are melting much faster than anticipated. And the math is not hard, when Greenland's glaciers melt, the sea level with rise about 20 feet. Bye-bye south Florida, bye-bye Manhattan, bye-bye much of SE Asia...

That scenario remains to be seen.

 

[Revoltingest]

That scenario remains to be seen.

Better that it be avoided than eventually seen.

 

[icehorse]

That scenario remains to be seen.

And that attitude is what will - literally - sink (or flood), us.

 

[Quintessence]

As someone well-studied in ecology, I've been saying this for years (and my betters in the field for far longer).

Human immigration is a problem, but not for the reasons the authoritarian party in my country drums up. They do it simply to tap into the xenophobic fear of "other" while ignoring the real underlying causes. To be fair, addressing the real underlying causes is a herculean task. While some nations will have the political will to at least attempt to address it, my own country will (and does) not. So the collapse is going to be uglier than it probably needed to be, but things will settle out as they must. Ironically xenophobic policies will sort of help with the issue, though probably not enough to be meaningful when the same party that supports xenophobia and isolationism is also anti-environment and encourages further rape of the earth.

 

[Heyo]

This thread is meant to broaden the scope of the immigration emergency thread in the NA politics forum.

Europe has been experiencing problems due to its immigration policies of the last several decades. For the sake of discussion, let's say Europe has recently brought in 50 million immigrants.

The US is experiencing problems due to its immigration policies, let's say we've brought in 20 million or so. These numbers, 50 million and 20 million are probably not that accurate, but I think they're the correct order of magnitude. Imagine what would happen if a BILLION people needed to immigrate?

All of this is a symptom of a larger problem - ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT (overshoot). Overshoot is the term used to summarize all the ways in which humans are using our planet's resources in unsustainable ways. Loss of fresh water, loss of topsoil, pollution, loss of species, and so on.

In the coming decades, overshoot will manifest in many ways including climate change, rising sea levels, droughts, and so on. I'd say it's not unreasonable to predict that a BILLION people will be displaced from their homes in the coming decades. So what we're seeing in Europe and NA is just the canary in the coal mine. We've got to stop goofing around with our day to day nonsense, zoom out, and really focus on overshoot. The good news is that when it comes to overshoot, we're ALL in this together. It is a concern and fight we can all join in together.

You're opening up a whole can of worms here.
First, not all immigrants are alike. There are asylum seekers, who are fleeing oppression or war. They have a human right to asylum, and Europe has recognized that right (mostly) in the past.
There are guest workers, who are invited to help the economy of the host country.
And there are immigrants, who want to become citizens.
Treating them all alike, isn't helpful.

And that is only the migration side of the equation. The overshoot problem is a global one, with its own special aspects.

 

[amorphous_constellation]

You're opening up a whole can of worms here.
First, not all immigrants are alike. There are asylum seekers, who are fleeing oppression or war. They have a human right to asylum, and Europe has recognized that right (mostly) in the past.
There are guest workers, who are invited to help the economy of the host country.
And there are immigrants, who want to become citizens.
Treating them all alike, isn't helpful.

And that is only the migration side of the equation. The overshoot problem is a global one, with its own special aspects.

I think a careful discussion of this needn't involve the can of worms. I for one accept your level of qualification, but I think that sometimes there can also be a broader pattern to be analyzed, with abundant migration.

I'm not a social scientist, but I intuit that there may be a broad pattern of large amounts of people moving thousands of miles, but only to be general laborers. So the possible logical connection enters in there: once an area on the planet runs out of certain basic social resources (access to general labor, living space, perhaps other material resources), then it is less of a leap to see why many people might travel thousands of miles for such basic resources.

Not everywhere on the planet has the ecological context or threshold, to perhaps support a lot of living space, or infrastructure for jobs, or perhaps even good land to grow things. A hard limit gets hit, as humans try to expand the population in these places, causing many to leave for where these things may still be perceived to be abundant.

 

[wellwisher]

People need to learn to manage their own countries. If they actually did, they wouldn't migrate elsewhere.

Look at El Salvador. The government is on the right track. Murders fell 70 percent according to a Reuters article I read as they are doing a massive crackdown on gangs there.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-says-murders-fell-70-2023-it-cracked-down-gangs-2024-01-03/

That is because these countries have sent their criminals and gangs to the USA. Trump is about to send them back. Countries have been unloading prisons and mental hospitals to the USA during Biden and Harris. The estimate is about 1 million total criminals from a lot of countries.

This is a similar scam that the DNC runs in Democrat run cities. They do not prosecute all crime, therefore, their crime number get better, even with same amount of crime. If someone is not found guilty and sentenced, they are not a crime statistic.

 

[Valjean]

That scenario remains to be seen.

Not only will Greenland's ice melt raise sea levels, it could also shut down the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic conveyor, shifting Europe's climate closer to that of similar latitudes in N. America. The UK, for example is at latitudes that would place it in North central Canada if shifted due West.

 

[Valjean]

That is because these countries have sent their criminals and gangs to the USA. Trump is about to send them back. Countries have been unloading prisons and mental hospitals to the USA during Biden and Harris. The estimate is about 1 million total criminals from a lot of countries.

This is a similar scam that the DNC runs in Democrat run cities. They do not prosecute all crime, therefore, their crime number get better, even with same amount of crime. If someone is not found guilty and sentenced, they are not a crime statistic.

I think you mostly have this backwards.
Most of the instability and crime in these Central American countries, causing the emigration to the US, is a result of the history of US nation-building, ie: the US hegemony created and maintained by US fomented coups and revolutions, creating repressive puppet states.
As for sending criminals and gangs to 'invade' the US, it was actually the US, primarily California, that rounded up immigrant gang members and deported them to Central America, where they've now created virtual crime-states in several countries.

The criminals are largely staying put. It's the law abiding citizens threatened by them that are fleeing North. Stats indicate that crime rates among these "invaders" is lower than they are for born citizens.

 

[icehorse]

You're opening up a whole can of worms here.
First, not all immigrants are alike. There are asylum seekers, who are fleeing oppression or war. They have a human right to asylum, and Europe has recognized that right (mostly) in the past.
There are guest workers, who are invited to help the economy of the host country.
And there are immigrants, who want to become citizens.
Treating them all alike, isn't helpful.

And that is only the migration side of the equation. The overshoot problem is a global one, with its own special aspects.

All good points.

In this thread I guess I'm highlighting a different kind of refugee, a "climate refugee".

So my point is that we're struggling to handle a few tens of millions of immigrants (of various types as you mentioned), so we're REALLY going to struggle when we're ALL faced with a BILLION climate refugees.

To me, THAT'S a first order problem that makes most of the other topics we debate rather trivial.

 

[Heyo]

All good points.

In this thread I guess I'm highlighting a different kind of refugee, a "climate refugee".

So my point is that we're struggling to handle a few tens of millions of immigrants (of various types as you mentioned), so we're REALLY going to struggle when we're ALL faced with a BILLION climate refugees.

To me, THAT'S a first order problem that makes most of the other topics we debate rather trivial.

Yes, that will be a major problem - in 20 years or so.
Until then, we have to face the problem to keep the defendable areas worthwhile to immigrate to, or we will be the ones who have to migrate. We have already failed to keep the globe liveable. This year, we had periods when it was already warmer than 1.5° C above pre-industrial times. Now we have to brace for impact. We have to raise dikes and levies, secure land from erosion and droughts, be more prepared to fight forest fires and strategically secure water supplies. And the first climate refugees will be from our own countries.

 

[icehorse]

Yes, that will be a major problem - in 20 years or so.
Until then, we have to face the problem to keep the defendable areas worthwhile to immigrate to, or we will be the ones who have to migrate. We have already failed to keep the globe liveable. This year, we had periods when it was already warmer than 1.5° C above pre-industrial times. Now we have to brace for impact. We have to raise dikes and levies, secure land from erosion and droughts, be more prepared to fight forest fires and strategically secure water supplies. And the first climate refugees will be from our own countries.

I think we're mostly agreed here, but a few points:

- I think trying to create dikes / levees / dams for places like Miami is a fool's errand. I know Miami has already begun, but I'd bet against success. The Netherlands have succeeded, and that's encouraging, but I can imagine many ways in which their success won't be replicate-ible.

- Your thoughts on erosion and drought seem right to me. One initiative that's starting to take hold in NA is "no till" farming, another is breaking away from mono-culture farming. The key point here is to conserve the topsoil we have left as being literally life and death for humanity. Not sure how folks are planning to mitigate droughts, but seems like a valid pursuit!

- Fresh water is a biggie! I think step one is to rapidly reduce, then eliminate subsidies for meat ranchers. Without subsidies, meat would cost maybe five times what it currently costs, and it should. It's not sustainable.

And yes, agreed, among the first climate refugees will be from our own countries. But I think another worthwhile initiative is to help poorer countries prepare as we're discussing above. It seems that "aid in place" is usually a far better approach.

 

[Foxfyre]

This thread is meant to broaden the scope of the immigration emergency thread in the NA politics forum.

Europe has been experiencing problems due to its immigration policies of the last several decades. For the sake of discussion, let's say Europe has recently brought in 50 million immigrants.

The US is experiencing problems due to its immigration policies, let's say we've brought in 20 million or so. These numbers, 50 million and 20 million are probably not that accurate, but I think they're the correct order of magnitude. Imagine what would happen if a BILLION people needed to immigrate?

All of this is a symptom of a larger problem - ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT (overshoot). Overshoot is the term used to summarize all the ways in which humans are using our planet's resources in unsustainable ways. Loss of fresh water, loss of topsoil, pollution, loss of species, and so on.

In the coming decades, overshoot will manifest in many ways including climate change, rising sea levels, droughts, and so on. I'd say it's not unreasonable to predict that a BILLION people will be displaced from their homes in the coming decades. So what we're seeing in Europe and NA is just the canary in the coal mine. We've got to stop goofing around with our day to day nonsense, zoom out, and really focus on overshoot. The good news is that when it comes to overshoot, we're ALL in this together. It is a concern and fight we can all join in together.

When migration is due to climate change--there are many examples in which that has occurred over thousands of years--we now have the technology to help people better adapt to inevitable climate change which is a far better policy than trying to change the climate.

Most of the migration into Europe and the U.S. is economic caused by bad/oppressive/wrongly motivated government. I don't know what the answer is for that other than encouraging the people to recognize the situation and correct it as all EU countries and the USA have done in the past. For sure the answer isn't allowing countries to be overrun by self-interested needy migrants to the point that all resources are sucked up and there is no ability to help anybody.

 

[icehorse]

When migration is due to climate change--there are many examples in which that has occurred over thousands of years--we now have the technology to help people better adapt to inevitable climate change which is a far better policy than trying to change the climate.

Most of the migration into Europe and the U.S. is economic caused by bad/oppressive/wrongly motivated government. I don't know what the answer is for that other than encouraging the people to recognize the situation and correct it as all EU countries and the USA have done in the past. For sure the answer isn't allowing countries to be overrun by self-interested needy migrants to the point that all resources are sucked up and there is no ability to help anybody.

During historical climate change periods, the planet wasn't already full of people. There was room for people to migrate to relatively unpopulated areas. That's no longer the case. In fact, one problem we're seeing is that because there are so many people on the planet, some of them are forced to live in dangerous areas. Areas prone to flooding and such.

As for "trying to change the climate", that's not what I'm suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that we try to stop changing the climate.

As for the reasons for the immigration patterns we've seen in the last several decades, I largely agree with your claims.

But THIS thread is about the new wave of immigration due to the climate crisis. So even if all the bad, oppressive governments were fixed today, we'd still be looking at a massive, climate-refugee crisis in the coming decades.

 

[Foxfyre]

During historical climate change periods, the planet wasn't already full of people. There was room for people to migrate to relatively unpopulated areas. That's no longer the case. In fact, one problem we're seeing is that because there are so many people on the planet, some of them are forced to live in dangerous areas. Areas prone to flooding and such.

As for "trying to change the climate", that's not what I'm suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that we try to stop changing the climate.

As for the reasons for the immigration patterns we've seen in the last several decades, I largely agree with your claims.

But THIS thread is about the new wave of immigration due to the climate crisis. So even if all the bad, oppressive governments were fixed today, we'd still be looking at a massive, climate-refugee crisis in the coming decades.

Okay so we are in agreement as to the situation that exists now and thank you.

I am not entirely on board with you re forced migration in coming decades though we could agree that climate change is inevitable, relentless, and will happen regardless of what we humans do. And that climate change will certainly have an effect on humankind.

I appreciated an essay by Bjorn Lomborg who spelled out the tremendous cost of futilely trying to change the climate or stop climate change vs the cost to humankind if the climate models turn out as predicted from how to the end of this century and we do nothing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/follow-the-science-leads-to-ruin-climate-environment-policy-3f427c05?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Think how much we Earthlings have advanced technology in just the last 50 years and we will almost certainly continue to accelerate that progress in the next 50 years. What if we poured all the massive funding now said to be going into preventing climate change into ways that humankind can adapt to/adjust to/profit from climate change? Adjust food crops according to changing weather patterns. Find ways to mitigate problems that changing weather patterns cause. Develop on a large scale efficient ways to make ocean water potable for plant, animal/human consumption.

Certainly the seven billion humans added to the world population since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution has had an effect on various environments. But short of massive genocide which no moral people would suggest, much less condone, we humans are given huge capacity to figure out how to establish and maintain quality of life within the environment we live.

If we can learn to do that, massive migrations would likely not be necessary.