Would Germany and Japan have won WW2 if the USA stayed out of the war?

[Stevicus]

As already pointed out the war would have gone on far longer, but it is possible the Allies could have still won. The contribution of the Russians is often overlooked, but as Churchill said they "ripped the filthy guts out of the Nazis" at enormous cost in lives. The Germans had to pour so much resources into the Eastern front, it doubtless effected their war effort elsewhere.

I think the Germans may have been expecting the same success against Russia as in WW1, and they expected that the Red Army would do just as badly as the Tsarist Army did in the previous war. Also Stalin purged a lot of his best officers - although the thing of it was, most of them were sent to Siberia, not killed outright. Once the war started, most of them were "rehabilitated" and returned to service just in time for the Soviets winter counteroffensive around Moscow in late 1941/early '42. But in the first six months or so, it looked just like it did in WW1, with the Germans rolling over everything until they were in sight of the Kremlin.

I think Hitler's fatal error was in concentrating on the south while Leningrad was still under siege and the northern ports of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk were still open and a valuable lifeline for the Soviets for supplies from the West. If the Germans could have successfully cut off the supply lines from the northern ports, it might have turned out differently.

Instead, Hitler chose to engage in his "Caucasus Roundtrip," with some side jaunt into Stalingrad.

However, there is the question of how well Churchill and Stalin would have cooperated if it was just the two of them. I think FDR may have been able to bring about a balance between the "Big Three" which may have been more conducive towards cooperation and coordination between the Allied Powers.

That was a significant difference between the Allies and the Axis. The Allies were operating as a team, in coordination with each other and keeping each other reasonably informed as to what they were planning. The Axis were mainly out for themselves, each fighting their own individual wars which happened to be against some of the same enemies.

I think the Americans really came into their own against the Japanese, Britain could certainly not have stopped them without their contribution. Pretty sure Japanese territory would be far more extensive than it is without the Americans.

I think Americans living on the West Coast may have considered the Japanese the greater threat to America itself, rather than the Germans. The Germans didn't have the naval power or air range to be any significant threat to America, but Japan did have the more powerful navy in those early months. Still, Churchill pressed for (and FDR agreed) "Germany First." But there wasn't really much we could do in the first year except try to defend against the Japanese onslaught in the Pacific while trying to dodge U-Boats in the Atlantic.

It's hard to imagine now, looking back and knowing the result. But from what those who lived during those times have told me, they really did not know if they were going to win or lose the war. In 1942, things probably looked pretty bleak.

 

[esmith]

Germany had basically conquered all of Europe except for Russia, they along with Italy had control of all of North Africa except for a small British presence which would eventually collapsed and Vichy forces governed most of the Middle East. Germany did not need to invade England they could starved them out with a blockade. Ireland was sympathetic to Germany. With England out of the picture Germany could focus the majority of their military on Russia and would have conquered them with some ease. With Germany controlling the majority of the civilized world except for the Far East. Japan would have succeeded in their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity sphere, including Australia. Japan would have not needed to attack the U.S. and eventually the United States would have had to recognized the Axis powers, which included Japan. Now the question should be could the United States stand alone against Japan, and Germany if those powers decided to invade the U.S. So if you want to debate that it would really be the question since the OP question is a 100% yes.

 

[The Holy Bottom Burp]

I think Hitler's fatal error was in concentrating on the south while Leningrad was still under siege and the northern ports of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk were still open and a valuable lifeline for the Soviets for supplies from the West. If the Germans could have successfully cut off the supply lines from the northern ports, it might have turned out differently.

Instead, Hitler chose to engage in his "Caucasus Roundtrip," with some side jaunt into Stalingrad.

However, there is the question of how well Churchill and Stalin would have cooperated if it was just the two of them. I think FDR may have been able to bring about a balance between the "Big Three" which may have been more conducive towards cooperation and coordination between the Allied Powers.

That was a significant difference between the Allies and the Axis. The Allies were operating as a team, in coordination with each other and keeping each other reasonably informed as to what they were planning. The Axis were mainly out for themselves, each fighting their own individual wars which happened to be against some of the same enemies.

Sure, Hitler made several fatal errors in the war for which I am personally glad or I might be sitting in a Nazi state right now. One of his worst was to divide his forces in Russia for purely egotistical reasons (to flatten Stalingrad), he had them by the nuts otherwise. It is the Russian people who take the accolades, they managed to repel Germany almost despite their own despotic leader.

I think Americans living on the West Coast may have considered the Japanese the greater threat to America itself, rather than the Germans. The Germans didn't have the naval power or air range to be any significant threat to America, but Japan did have the more powerful navy in those early months. Still, Churchill pressed for (and FDR agreed) "Germany First." But there wasn't really much we could do in the first year except try to defend against the Japanese onslaught in the Pacific while trying to dodge U-Boats in the Atlantic.

It's hard to imagine now, looking back and knowing the result. But from what those who lived during those times have told me, they really did not know if they were going to win or lose the war. In 1942, things probably looked pretty bleak.

Yes, Japan was a bigger threat for sure, I think the battle of Midway is sometimes overlooked, but I think it was pivotal in defeating the Japanese threat; it was the beginning of the end. The Americans got a bit of luck that day, and on such small chances in fortune are wars settled sometimes.

 

[Laika]

I think the USA sorta saved the day for the Allies in World War 2. What do you think? Could Germany and Japan have defeated their enemies had the United States stayed out of the war entirely, and Japan never attacked Pearl Harbor?

Voted "no". I could be persuaded either way, but the fact is that the United States was not directly involved in the war in Europe for nearly 3 years (1941-44) even if they did provide significant material support to the UK and USSR. There was some US involvement in the war in Africa and Italy in 1943 but I believe it was still quite a minor theatre of the war and wasn't crucial to the ultimate outcome. The Soviets did most of the fighting and I suspect they would have pulled off a victory eventually. It would have extended the war for quite some time though.

The same problem comes up with the war in the pacific over whether it was the Soviets declaring war on Japan or the Americans use of the bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that was decisive in Japan's surrender. What would have happened in the Pacific without US involvement or the attack on Pearl Harbour I don't really know.

 

[DavidFirth]

The only reason the Allies won the war is because America had way more soldiers...the Axis powers had superior soldiers, superior technology (save for the nuclear bomb) etc. Also, positioning is a factor. Germany was inconveniently located between Britain, France, and Poland.

Germany should have been worrying about that and should never have attacked Russia. Then they could have concentrated on the Western front and annihilated the Allies until the US jumped in.

Japan really should have defeated us in the Pacific. They had more ships, 1 more aircraft carrier and seasoned veterans fighting. If we hadn't intercepted their code and knew they where their carriers were I doubt we would have defeated their navy.