Once more on SETI, Fermi, and Drake

[Jayhawker Soule]

This morning I came across an article in BIG THINK with the title:

The unsurprising non-detection of intelligent aliens​

Much of the article focuses on the utility (or lack thereof) of the Drake equation. What it seeks to emphasize is that, when plugging in some of the estimates, "Our ignorance is astounding."

It's conclusion?

... we should admit — with a non-negligible probability — the most obvious resolution to the Fermi Paradox: The reason we haven’t made first contact with intelligent, technologically advanced, and spacefaring alien civilizations is because there are none. In all the galaxy, and perhaps even in all the Universe, we really may be alone.

Without evidence to the contrary, we have every reason to keep looking and searching, but still no reason other than our own preferences to believe that other creatures, similar to humans, exist out there. While it may be incredibly fun to theorize a myriad of possible explanations as to why intelligent extraterrestrials might remain hidden from us, the simplest possibility — that they just aren’t out there — should be the default hypothesis until proven otherwise.

 

[Heyo]

This morning I came across an article in BIG THINK with the title:

The unsurprising non-detection of intelligent aliens​

Much of the article focuses on the utility (or lack thereof) of the Drake equation. What it seeks to emphasize is that, when plugging in some of the estimates, "Our ignorance is astounding."

Yep. Except for the number of stars and planets, the numbers we could plug into the equation are very rough estimates with uncertainties spanning orders of magnitudes.

It's conclusion?

The Fermi Paradox rests on the assumption that Earth is just an average planet and that there may be planets that are older and life has had time enough to reach a higher level of technology, so high that we may see their work from here.
But what if earlier planets didn't have the conditions for life or if we are just pretty fast? Even if the galaxy is full of Earth-like technological civilizations, we could only detect them if they are basically in our backyard (about 10 light years).

So, as it seems, there are no gods to save us from ourselves, nor are there advanced aliens. We'll have to do it ourselves (and maybe become the advanced aliens).