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10 Years to save the Planet ?

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
Some new studies being done....
http://www.physorg.com/news11710.html
According to Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of [COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana][COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana]Sciences[/FONT][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR], the apparent rise in average global temperature recorded by scientists over the last hundred years or so could be due to atmospheric changes that are not connected to human [COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana][COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana]emissions[/FONT][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR] of carbon dioxide from the burning of natural gas and oil. Shaidurov explained how changes in the amount of ice crystals at high altitude could damage the layer of thin, high altitude clouds found in the mesosphere that reduce the amount of warming solar [COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana][COLOR=green ! important][FONT=Helvetica,Verdana]radiation[/FONT][/FONT][/COLOR][/COLOR] reaching the earth's surface.

Again, global warming is agreed upon by scientists... The cause, however, is not and there is not enough solid evidence to say what the cause is.

If it was the sun causing us to warm I would think the sun would also cause other planets to warm... It seems like Mars is warming up
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mars_ice-age_031208.html
but I couldn't find any reports about other planets warming up... Any of you see any articles about other planets warming?
 

JerryL

Well-Known Member
There were things there to debate if you actually read it rather than looking up what website it was posted on.
As I said: I'm not here to debate a website. I'm happy to debate a poster on RF.

Tell you what, you write a critique of every person anyehere who has expoused global warming then I'll write a critique of everone who has dismissed it.

I believe many people before me have stated things like "Most of the climatologists agree we are to blame" yet when someone opposes this view (and apparently yours) you instantly want numbers... Here is one of the sites you dismissed because they are biased. They also request that scientists review their materials and sign their petition if they agree... Here is the petition...
http://www.sitewave.net/pproject/
An anti-global-warming site is looking for people to sign a petition. I'm missing the relevence to the topic.

BTW, a neat discussion of "balance" in relation to Global Warming: http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1978

Any numbers on your end?
Public: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c7/c7s2.htm#c7s2l4a

Scientific community: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

Both the IPCC (the UN's lead climate authority) and the AMC[American Meterological Association] (the group all those weathermen on TV get certified by) agree both in global warming and in the fact that it's been influenced by human emissions. Bush's own study (you know, the guy trying to downplay it) the " Federal Climate Change Science Program" agreed with this assessment.

In December 2004, Science published an essay by geologist and science historian Naomi Oreskes that summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change. Analyzing 928 papers, not a single one opposed Global Warming and the human influence on it, and 75% directly supported it.

Go back 10 years, and the picture looks different; but the consensus seems pretty strongly established.

You said you knew of no scenario where global climate change would be a threat. We know that the global climate throughout the years has changed, and we also know that in the past a change of .000000000000000000000000001 was not exactly a threat.
And I said that such a change would be an equivocation of "Global Warming" as it has been used thusfar and was used by me in my statement. It's therefore both dishonest and fallacious.

You invoke the "butterfly effect" which actually would go so far as to say a butterfly can be a threat because it could eventually cause a tidal wave half way around the world. There is no scientific research to this actually
Of course there is. The specific term for "butterfly effect" is called "extreme dependance on initial conditions". It's the reason that one cannot predict non-cyclic phenomina in complex systems (like weather) very far in advance. It's a well established fact.

Can you tell me what creatures would die if the temperature of the earth went down .000000000000000000000000001 in a year then back up .000000000000000000000000001 the next year?
Chaos establishes that I cannot. One can change the weather, but one cannot tell what the weather would have been had he not changed it. Since it's impossible to predict what will happen in the next year (amongst non-cyclic phenomina), it would be impossible to gauge what specefic events were different than they would have been.

Maybe without global warming Katrina would have been a cat 1 that hit Mexico. Maybe without global warming it would have been a cat 5 that slammed NO dead-on. There's no way to predict it *because* of the butterfly effect.

You really should pick up a good book on Chaos, it would explain a lot of tihs for you.
 

Ryan2065

Well-Known Member
JerryL said:
As I said: I'm not here to debate a website. I'm happy to debate a poster on RF.
Again... You decided to attack the source rather than the parts that I personally quoted here in this thread. You didn't even need to click the link to see what I wanted you to see. I put it in nice big quote boxes... It was not hard to find.

An anti-global-warming site is looking for people to sign a petition. I'm missing the relevence to the topic.
You wanted numbers... I wouldn't imagine a petition against global warming to be on a very biased site anyways... This one is for other scientists to review their work then sign if they believe in what they wrote. You asked for numbers, that is what I found.

Both the IPCC (the UN's lead climate authority) and the AMC[American Meterological Association] (the group all those weathermen on TV get certified by) agree both in global warming and in the fact that it's been influenced by human emissions. Bush's own study (you know, the guy trying to downplay it) the " Federal Climate Change Science Program" agreed with this assessment.
I wouldn't imagine many scientists would disagree that global warming is real and that humans have influenced it. Isn't the question what is the main influence?

In December 2004, Science published an essay by geologist and science historian Naomi Oreskes that summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change. Analyzing 928 papers, not a single one opposed Global Warming and the human influence on it, and 75% directly supported it.
So there is a 75% consensus...

And just a note... the wording here is very nice... A paper on global warming and how likely it is that it was caused by solar flares would be counted as not going against the human influence on it. So a paper would have to actually come out and say "Here is the evidence why Humans did not contribute to global warming" for it to not be counted in this little survey... To me this throws the numbers off with the last 25%.
 

JerryL

Well-Known Member
Again... You decided to attack the source rather than the parts that I personally quoted here in this thread. You didn't even need to click the link to see what I wanted you to see. I put it in nice big quote boxes... It was not hard to find.
A slight paraphrase of your quote:
According to Vladimir Shaidurov [global warming] could be due to atmospheric changes that are not connected to human emissions

Ok. I don't dispute that Vladimir said this. Now tell me what your point is. It's not a factual statement, simply another appeal to authority.

Are you disuputing that the Earth is getting warmer, that CO2 is an insulating material in the aptmosphere, or that we are pumping a signifigant portion of the CO2 that's entering the aptmosphere there?

You wanted numbers... I wouldn't imagine a petition against global warming to be on a very biased site anyways... This one is for other scientists to review their work then sign if they believe in what they wrote. You asked for numbers, that is what I found.
People who want to you sign a petition are unbiased because.... ?

When someone hands you a petition, they already have a conclusion and want you to support it. That's pretty definitionaly bias.

I wouldn't imagine many scientists would disagree that global warming is real and that humans have influenced it. Isn't the question what is the main influence?
No, it's really not. The questions are "is it bad" and "can we do anything to change it". The answers are "yes" and "yes".

So there is a 75% consensus...
:no: You didn't read it. Of several hundred papers to meet the search criteria (mention global warming and appear in peer-reviewed scientific publications), 75% explictly or implicitly said that our actions were causual.

The remaing 25% did not address the issue of man's responsability or lack thereof.

0% asserted that man was not responsable.

And just a note... the wording here is very nice... A paper on global warming and how likely it is that it was caused by solar flares would be counted as not going against the human influence on it. So a paper would have to actually come out and say "Here is the evidence why Humans did not contribute to global warming" for it to not be counted in this little survey... To me this throws the numbers off with the last 25%.
We do it all the time. I just finished reading a report on the Hinderberg which said "Hydrogen was not a causal factor in the destruction of the Hindernberg".

In almost one-thousand papers, not a single scientist made the assertion that human actions were not a signifigant part of global warming.

Even the Christian right has moved into a green "stop global warming" postion, with more than 60% now favoring acting to curb global warming. Pat Robertson converted this summer. What do you think it must take to have convinced them?
 
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