2024.10.09 - Trump Has Edge in Top Battleground States

[Guitar's Cry]

What people are now seeing that the infantile shaming rhetoric and name calling and accusations and all that aren't really going to make an impact anymore because it's just the tired tactic the Democrats use all the time to try to intimidate people and now it's just failing and failing bad.

Stand up to a bully and the bully backs down.

This made me think of all the "Make Liberals Cry Again," "Joe and the Ho," "**** Biden" flags and bumper stickers out there. And all of Trump's nicknames for people. And his social media rants.

Fact is, Trump and many of his followers use racist and xenophobic rhetoric and spread conspiracy theories and misinformation.

Why people like Trump, I can't really understand. I can reasonably work it out, but I can't understand it. He's a terrible leader and person in general. Half the country thinks he's Presidential material, though, and I am becoming surprised that this still shocks me.

 

[F1fan]

Stand up to a bully and the bully backs down.

Good point. No wonder Trump is afraid to debate Harris again.

 

[Koldo]

This made me think of all the "Make Liberals Cry Again," "Joe and the Ho," "**** Biden" flags and bumper stickers out there. And all of Trump's nicknames for people. And his social media rants.

Fact is, Trump and many of his followers use racist and xenophobic rhetoric and spread conspiracy theories and misinformation.

Why people like Trump, I can't really understand. I can reasonably work it out, but I can't understand it. He's a terrible leader and person in general. Half the country thinks he's Presidential material, though, and I am becoming surprised that this still shocks me.

Basket of deplorables.
It is a mix that describes many people: racist, sexist, xenophobic and gullible. It is the same set of people that has enabled facism and nazism.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Good point. No wonder Trump is afraid to debate Harris again.

Clearly she's no match whatsoever for Trump.

 

[Twilight Hue]

you mean like how Trump on August 28 posted a in social media how Kamala Harris only got her job as district attorney by performing acts of oral sex?
Or his racist comment that Harris "only recently became a black person"?
or when he said the vice president was mentally retarded?

Who knows? Trump might be right.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Basket of deplorables.
It is a mix that describes many people: racist, sexist, xenophobic and gullible. It is the same set of people that has enabled facism and nazism.

Oh so that's how Democrats try to censor and shut up people by calling them all those names. Well guess what? It isn't working anymore. Tables have turned.

 

[Avisitor]

From what I have seen of the media, one gets what one is looking for. Seek and you will find. Look for the good and you will see the good. Look for the bad and you will see the bad. Look for the truth by doing your own research and making your own judgements. No matter who you support, if you do not vote then you get the leader you did not ask for. If you vote then at least you made a decision. Good luck to all.

 

[McBell]

Oh so that's how Democrats try to censor and shut up people by calling them all those names. Well guess what? It isn't working anymore. Tables have turned.

Why are you so triggered by the standards set by Trump himself?
I mean, why is it just fine for Trump to stoop so low, but you get so butt hurt when others stoop down to Trumps level?

 

[Argentbear]

Why are you so triggered by the standards set by Trump himself?
I mean, why is it just fine for Trump to stoop so low, but you get so butt hurt when others stoop down to Trumps level?

no one gets anywhere near as low as Trump

 

[Argentbear]

Who knows? Trump might be right

Any reason other than racism to suggest that Trump is right?

 

[Guitar's Cry]

Oh so that's how Democrats try to censor and shut up people by calling them all those names. Well guess what? It isn't working anymore. Tables have turned.

To be clear, I am not trying to specifically call individual Trump voters such as yourself racist or xenophobic. These terms have specific meanings and when they are applied correctly serve a purpose.

Consider them the free speech checks on other people's freedom to espouse views that denigrate other people. In other words, if someone (especially anyone with a large platform who could be President...again) is free to share racist and xenophobic views, people ought to be free to call it out as such.
Suggesting this is censorship is to say that people shouldn't be able to call out racism and xenophobia when it's justified.

When Donald Trump says things like "immigrants are poisoning the blood," or questions a black President's or candidate's citizenship, or puts emphasis on "Barack HUSSEIN Obama," he is using racist and xenophobic messaging to energize that part of his supporters that have racist and xenophobic views.

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Source: Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

What do you make of this?

I really wish that all polling reporting included confidence intervals.

If the margin of error on those polls is in the typical range, all of those states are in statistical ties.

Just a blip not to be worried about or will it be 2016 all over again?

I think both sides need to worry about all those states.

I don't think polling is going to be super useful for forecasting. Like I said, all of those states are probably in a statistical tie, and to model actual election outcomes, you'd need to filter those results through some assumptions about likelihood to vote, which adds a whole other level of uncertainty.

I think the most important graphic from your link is the trend over time: which sides - if any - have momentum? Right now, both seem pretty flat.

... though that being said, I'm not sure what dates they used for that graph. One flag (maybe not a red flag, but a beige flag) for that article for me is that they don't give any actual polling dates.

Especially as close to the election as we are, it's important to know when the data was collected - different polls will have different survey periods.

If a poll was done over, say, 2 weeks, then the results were posted a week later, then some of the survey data is nearly a month old right when it's newly released. Have sentiments changed since then? Hard to say. The article alludes to the table being an aggregation of multiple "recent" polls in each state. How recent is recent?

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Oh so that's how Democrats try to censor and shut up people by calling them all those names. Well guess what? It isn't working anymore. Tables have turned.

This is a good example of a trend I keep seeing: Trump supporters who react with a victim mentality when they're criticized.

I get how Trump and friends use a lot of fear-based rhetoric - which you seem to have taken to heart - but do you really see Trump or yourself as underdogs here?

Nobody's shutting you up. I can tell this from the fact that you're still talking. It's like the right-wing and anti-LGBTQ standups who will complain about being cancelled in their Nexflix specials.

 

[Watchmen]

I really wish that all polling reporting included confidence intervals.

If the margin of error on those polls is in the typical range, all of those states are in statistical ties.


I think both sides need to worry about all those states.

I don't think polling is going to be super useful for forecasting. Like I said, all of those states are probably in a statistical tie, and to model actual election outcomes, you'd need to filter those results through some assumptions about likelihood to vote, which adds a whole other level of uncertainty.

I think the most important graphic from your link is the trend over time: which sides - if any - have momentum? Right now, both seem pretty flat.

... though that being said, I'm not sure what dates they used for that graph. One flag (maybe not a red flag, but a beige flag) for that article for me is that they don't give any actual polling dates.

Especially as close to the election as we are, it's important to know when the data was collected - different polls will have different survey periods.

If a poll was done over, say, 2 weeks, then the results were posted a week later, then some of the survey data is nearly a month old right when it's newly released. Have sentiments changed since then? Hard to say. The article alludes to the table being an aggregation of multiple "recent" polls in each state. How recent is recent?

If you click on the individual polls you get all the information you ask for. Date…margin of error…etc.

 

[Twilight Hue]

This is a good example of a trend I keep seeing: Trump supporters who react with a victim mentality when they're criticized.

I get how Trump and friends use a lot of fear-based rhetoric - which you seem to have taken to heart - but do you really see Trump or yourself as underdogs here?

Nobody's shutting you up. I can tell this from the fact that you're still talking. It's like the right-wing and anti-LGBTQ standups who will complain about being cancelled in their Nexflix specials.

That's a complete pile of bull****. Democrats are well known for using shaming among other accusatory tactics for the express purpose in shutting people up and silencing them.

Robert Kennedy Jr himself made a recent statement on how those same tactics were used on him by Democrats and even some Republicans and their respective supporters to try hard to ought right censor and silence him.



It's not working anymore. Not for him now, not for anyone. Tables are turning.

 

[fantome profane]

That's a complete pile of bull****. Democrats are well known for using shaming among other accusatory tactics for the express purpose in shutting people up and silencing them.

Robert Kennedy Jr himself made a recent statement on how those same tactics were used on him by Democrats and even some Republicans and their respective supporters to try hard to ought right censor and silence him.



It's not working anymore. Not for him now, not for anyone. Tables are turning.

Shame on you for making such a stupid post.

Shame is not a violation of the first amendment, it is not censorship. It is just speech in response to speech.

And you should be ashamed of yourself for not understanding that.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Shame on you for making such a stupid post.

Shame is not a violation of the first amendment, it is not censorship. It is just speech in response to speech.

And you should be ashamed of yourself for not understanding that.

Eh. So what? ;0)

 

[Kathryn]

To be clear, I am not trying to specifically call individual Trump voters such as yourself racist or xenophobic. These terms have specific meanings and when they are applied correctly serve a purpose.

Consider them the free speech checks on other people's freedom to espouse views that denigrate other people. In other words, if someone (especially anyone with a large platform who could be President...again) is free to share racist and xenophobic views, people ought to be free to call it out as such.
Suggesting this is censorship is to say that people shouldn't be able to call out racism and xenophobia when it's justified.

When Donald Trump says things like "immigrants are poisoning the blood," or questions a black President's or candidate's citizenship, or puts emphasis on "Barack HUSSEIN Obama," he is using racist and xenophobic messaging to energize that part of his supporters that have racist and xenophobic views.

I believe that Barack Hussein Obama's real middle name was Hussein. Which is pretty terrible but I digress.

 

[fantome profane]

Eh. So what? ;0)

Exactly. So when you say "Democrats are well known for using shaming", so what? It is just speech, free speech in response to free speech.

When someone says something stupid, we should shame them and call it stupid, when someone says something racist, we should shame them and call it racist. And when they say something that is both stupid and racist, we should shame them to the max!

Like when some congresswoman says "they are controlling the weather", they should be shamed 24/7. The should be shamed and mocked. When someone elected to that high office says something that stupid, they should not be able to go anywhere without being laughed at.

 

[Guitar's Cry]

I believe that Barack Hussein Obama's real middle name was Hussein. Which is pretty terrible but I digress.

It is his middle name. It's a common name in other parts of the world and I believe it means "handsome."

Emphasizing it is a way to tap into racist and xenophobic fears.