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A simple case for intelligent design

ecco

Veteran Member
ecco said:
It is impossible for monkeys to type Shakespeare. Again, do the math.​


Huh? It is certainly possible for monkeys to type Shakespeare or for a supercomputer, spitting out random English characters, to do so,

You didn't do the math, did you? Maybe you don't know how. Here, I'll simplify it for you.
What is the absolute minimum number of tries it would take a supercomputer spitting out 26 random English characters at a time to produce abcedfghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz ?


In a study, evolutionists concluded that the cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. What is more likely, 100 monkeys typing for one year to get one sonnet (or 1,000,000 typing years), or the odds of a cecal appendix evolving, raised to the 32nd power?

Why are you raising sciency sounding questions?
You have made it clear that your objection to evolution is based on your ingrained belief in Genesis.
 

ecco

Veteran Member
ecco:
Your God did nothing for all but 6 days of eternity/forever.​

A true response could be, "What is your experience of time/forever when you are an omni-PRESENT being, living in the absence of time/light?"

Except that a question really isn't much of a response, especially not a true response. In any case what evidence do you have that your god is an omni-PRESENT being, living in the absence of time/light?

Do you deny that your magic man in the sky did nothing for all but 6 days of eternity/forever?
 

ecco

Veteran Member
I believe you are teachable? I don't believe you like to teach others, though.
What you should know is that I understand that no amount of teaching that I could do could overcome your religious indoctrination. Therefore, I don't bother.

Repeating: I CAN go to fundie and creationist websites and download all the (facts? hyperbole? cherry picking? are you sure?) that I wish. I come here to:

1) see what the latest science and research has to say

But you have no real interest in learning. You only want to "see what the latest science and research has to say" so you can post "rebuttals" from creo websites.

2) see what the other side has to say

But you have no real interest in learning. You only want to "see what the other side has to say" so you can post "rebuttals" from creo websites.


3) re-verify that skeptics hate teaching, hate listening, and love ad homs, when patience and self-control fails

Nonsense. Most of the science posters constantly try teaching you. I know you are unteachable, but I'm in the minority.



I was chatting with Dan because he seems more knowledgeable (and more patient) than you. We'll see, I guess!
If you don't want to chat with me, don't.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
ecco said:
It is impossible for monkeys to type Shakespeare. Again, do the math.​

You didn't do the math, did you? Maybe you don't know how. Here, I'll simplify it for you.
What is the absolute minimum number of tries it would take a supercomputer spitting out 26 random English characters at a time to produce abcedfghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz ?

To be fair, though, the minimum is not the expected number. But, to answer the question on the expected number, we have to know more about the situation.

If, for example, we randomly list 26 letters for each stage with no connection between the results of each stage, the expected number of trials is 26^26=6*10^36. If the supercomputer could spit out a line every nanosecond, that would give 3*10^16 each year, so the *expected* number of lines would take 2*10^20 years. Speeding up the computer a thousand fold doesn't change much: it would then take 2*10^17 years.

But, fortunately, this is NOT what happens in the real world for things like protein formation or RNA/DNA sequences. In the real world, small sequences are patched together, with selection pressures at each stage.

Suppose, instead, that we randomly generate pairs or triples of letters. Any pairs that are consecutive (like kl or st) would be considered growth nuclei. Any other pairs or triples that are consecutive on either side of a growth nucleus will 'patch onto' that growth nucleus. So, if we have pairs cd and ef, they will merge to give a quadruple cdef, from which new growth can occur.

Now, we ask how many pairs, on average, we need to produce before we obtain a complete alphabet by this procedure. Instead of the huge number 26^26, we will find a number much, much smaller than a billion and the supercomputer will do this almost instantly.

The point is that 'absolute randomness' is a false start. That isn't how life works nor is it how chemistry works. The stages are NOT completely washed away before the next trial is made. Instead, each new trial is based on whatever successes happened in prior trials. This drastically increases the odds of finding something that works.

Remember, both mutation and selection are crucial components. The randomness is in the mutation, but selection is what reduces the number of cases that need to be tried.
 

ecco

Veteran Member
statements I've read/seen heard from scientists... For example:

"It is now generally recognized that beneficial mutations are rare,
...
within single chromosomal lineage would be 100 million generations." -- source: The waiting time problem in a model hominin population

You just can't get away for using Creos as you sole source of "knowledge" can you?

Source: John C. Sanford - Wikipedia

The author of your paper: John C. Sanford (born 1950) is an American plant geneticist, and an advocate of intelligent design and young earth creationism.
...
Sanford testified in 2005 in the Kansas evolution hearings on behalf of intelligent design, during which he denied the principle of common descent and "humbly offered... that we were created by a special creation, by God".

He stated that he believed the age of the Earth was "less than 100,000" years.
Here is a summary comment:

"Sanford’s Genetic Entropy, on the other hand, is simply wrong from beginning to end. It misrepresents everything it touches: beneficial and deleterious mutations, gene duplication, natural selection, and synergistic epistasis. In all these areas, Sanford avoids engaging the large body of work which directly refutes his viewpoint, and instead cherry-picks a few references that seem to point his way, usually misinterpreting them in the process."

None of this has prevented him from selling a bunch of books, he's a hero for the people still clinging to their willful ignorance regarding YECreationism.
I seldom post links to videos, but this TedTalk...
...shows that evolution was accepted long before Darwin ever came on the scene.

ETA This link is posted for anyone, it's a pretty interesting talk (about 17 minutes). I don't expect BB to watch.
 
Last edited:

Bear Wild

Well-Known Member
**

"You cannot conceive it, therefore it must be creation/design."

I can conceive, and have a passion for, gaming, probability and statistics. I saw a study excerpted, for example, that evolutionists recently concluded that the cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. I see this as a unlikely-but-species-beneficial statistical event, now raised to the 32nd power. I know evolution has filters and works on principles that enhance and speed desirable traits, however...

...There are known beneficial mutations. Yes. Would you be willing to state at ReligiousForums what percentage of mutations is beneficial? Or can we cut to the chase and say, "Things operate so rapidly in the fossil record, there must be catalysts that are unknown, to speed these processes," statements I've read/seen heard from scientists? For example:

"It is now generally recognized that beneficial mutations are rare, and that high-impact beneficial mutations are extremely rare. In higher life forms where population sizes are modest, the mutation rate per nucleotide per generation is normally extremely low (about 10−8). This means that the waiting time for a specific nucleotide within single chromosomal lineage would be 100 million generations." -- source: The waiting time problem in a model hominin population

Statements like the above prompt scientists to understand that one of the current gaps in evolution knowledge is life explosion/rapid speciation...

I have evidence that God wrote the Bible. I'm pursuing you for evolution knowledge and to bridge gaps in my knowledge, but yes, I'm hesitant to pour out evidence to someone who does not ask for such evidence without an accompanying comment like "you are dishonest, since you ignore Bible errors". We haven't discussed Bible accuracy or Bible errors, so why pre-judge? Because I'm a creationist? That seems to be too generalizing for my taste.

I do have other agendas, sure, like loving brothers and sisters. Jesus told us both, "The world will know you are mine if you have love, one for another." I love God, I love His Word. Why does that imply to you that I'm dishonest, unscrupulous? That seems an unwarranted accusation. Or put another way, are you able to restate that you worry about my fealty to Bible inerrancy because you love me? But please do not tell me your love is conditional, for Jesus commanded Christians to love Christians.
Sorry but Jesus was Jewish and did not command Christians to love Christians. One can have unconditional love without a god or the words that people though Jesus said.
 

ecco

Veteran Member
ecco:
What is the absolute minimum number of tries it would take a supercomputer spitting out 26 random English characters at a time to produce abcedfghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz ?​

To be fair, though, the minimum is not the expected number.
Yeah, That was kind of unfair. But I'm glad you didn't respond so that we can see what BB comes up with as the minimum.


But, to answer the question on the expected number, we have to know more about the situation.

If, for example, we randomly list 26 letters for each stage with no connection between the results of each stage, the expected number of trials is 26^26=6*10^36.

Right, we have 26 slots. The computer can put any one of 26 letters into the first slot. Then the computer can put any one of 26 letters into the second slot. ... After 26 slot fillings we may have something like:
aaaaaaloiiiijjdnnnyuidokns
or
bacedfghijklmnopqrsuvwxyz



If the supercomputer could spit out a line every nanosecond, that would give 3*10^16 each year, so the *expected* number of lines would take 2*10^20 years. Speeding up the computer a thousand fold doesn't change much: it would then take 2*10^17 years.

Shakespear's shortest play The Comedy of Errors contains over 16,000 words. Let's add four characters for spaces, commas, periods and question marks to make it an even 30 characters. The chances of getting the sonnet correct are 1 in 30^16000. For comparison, it is estimated that there are about 10^80 atoms in the universe.
 

ecco

Veteran Member
But, fortunately, this is NOT what happens in the real world for things like protein formation or RNA/DNA sequences. In the real world, small sequences are patched together, with selection pressures at each stage.

Suppose, instead, that we randomly generate pairs or triples of letters. Any pairs that are consecutive (like kl or st) would be considered growth nuclei. Any other pairs or triples that are consecutive on either side of a growth nucleus will 'patch onto' that growth nucleus. So, if we have pairs cd and ef, they will merge to give a quadruple cdef, from which new growth can occur.

Now, we ask how many pairs, on average, we need to produce before we obtain a complete alphabet by this procedure. Instead of the huge number 26^26, we will find a number much, much smaller than a billion and the supercomputer will do this almost instantly.

I actually wrote a program like this some years ago. For ease of coding I used 32 "characters" ABC...XYZabcdef".


In the "creationist" version I'd take a random letter. If it was an A, I'd get another. If it was a B, I'd go for the next. If it wasn't, I'd start over. Running overnight, the best I got was several instances of ABCDE.

Then I made a "nature" version. I'd grab two random letters. If the letters were aligned adjacently (GH; KL; fA), I'd keep the pair. I'd repeat this until I had a lot of pairs (I don't remember the number, maybe 10,000). Then I'd grab two sets of pairs and see if they connected (LM & NO) {molecular bonding?}. If they did, I'd keep them. If not, I'd discard them. Rinse and repeat. Then I went to fours, eights, and sixteens. When done, I'd examine the results. I'd have things like VWXYZabcdefABC...; BCDEF...YZabcdefA.

Running overnight I'd have 5-8 ABCD...Zabcdef sets.

ETA 1990's computer.
 

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
We see words and cognates that show Latin changing to French over time--we have evidence for that--so why no evidence for morphological innovations, such as wings, both of which are found fully formed in present-day organisms without leaving evidence of how they evolved?

A wing is at a DNA information level far more complex than the words of a human language, all the words of such a language!
You have already been supplied with one example of evidence for wing evolution.

Would you not expect to see fully formed wings in present day birds? In what sense would you expect them to be partially formed? Even most birds that have lost the ability to fly or fly well still have wings.

Yes. I know. The amount of information coded in the DNA is incredible. Isn't it cool? And it all got there through the process of evolution.
 

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
Yup, sometimes it's just too easy.

This time around it's a creationist challenging us "Show me X", so I showed him exactly what he demanded. Now we all get to watch his response. Will he now acknowledge that X exists? Probably not, unless it's to suddenly declare that X is no longer important. The more stereotypical response is to say that it doesn't count because it's not Y. I'm expecting something like "How does that prove common ancestry".
Looks like he has already forgotten, since he is still asking about evidence for wing evolution in birds.
 

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
A study concluded that the cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. What happens to statistical odds raised to the 32nd power? And what filters reduce these odds?

* The filter to store unneeded gut bacteria in the appendix until needed
* The filter to build the appendix as a rarefied storage unit
* The filter to have the enzymes and other catalysts to release the bacteria, etc. times about 30 other things we can think of from a medical/endocrine/biology perspective, raised to the 32nd power for 32 independent evolutionary changes
If a structure evolves so many times in different lines, would you expect it is easy to evolve that structure?

You are so set on proving that the odds are against evolution, you forgot to take a probability and statistics class to help you understand what you are trying to do.

Clearly, you have no idea what is going on since you so frequently turn to hyperbole to indicate the number of factors rather than try to find out if there are actual numbers, if any. If you base your conclusions on your own speculation, what do you think the value of those conclusions will be?
 

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
**

"You cannot conceive it, therefore it must be creation/design."

I can conceive, and have a passion for, gaming, probability and statistics. I saw a study excerpted, for example, that evolutionists recently concluded that the cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. I see this as a unlikely-but-species-beneficial statistical event, now raised to the 32nd power. I know evolution has filters and works on principles that enhance and speed desirable traits, however...
You seem to be interested in it as far as using it to support your beliefs. I am a biologist and not much of a statistician, but I have had training in it and I use it regularly. I can talk to a statistician and understand them. What I see in your posts is not a strong grasp of statistics and probability. More of an interest to claim something about them, than to understand what it is you are trying to do with them.

...There are known beneficial mutations. Yes. Would you be willing to state at ReligiousForums what percentage of mutations is beneficial? Or can we cut to the chase and say, "Things operate so rapidly in the fossil record, there must be catalysts that are unknown, to speed these processes," statements I've read/seen heard from scientists? For example:
I do not know the percentage of beneficial mutations. It wold depend on the species, their environment, the selection pressure they have been under and many other factors. There may be some studies that have made attempts to estimate it in some population or other, but I do not know of any off the top of my head. I know that beneficial mutations exist, unlike your sources claim that they do not.

"It is now generally recognized that beneficial mutations are rare, and that high-impact beneficial mutations are extremely rare. In higher life forms where population sizes are modest, the mutation rate per nucleotide per generation is normally extremely low (about 10−8). This means that the waiting time for a specific nucleotide within single chromosomal lineage would be 100 million generations." -- source: The waiting time problem in a model hominin population
From what I have learned and seen, beneficial mutations are rare, but keep in mind that a beneficial mutation is contingent upon it appearing in a place where it provides a benefit. In most people there would be no benefit to the sickle cell mutation unless there is the environmental presence of a high incidence of malaria.

Statements like the above prompt scientists to understand that one of the current gaps in evolution knowledge is life explosion/rapid speciation...
There are a lot of gaps in our knowledge of everything. That is why science has been developed, instituted and is practiced. So we can fill those gaps with tested knowledge.

I have evidence that God wrote the Bible.
You would be the first and only person in history. Let me say that I believe you think you do, but I do not believe you actually do.

Let me put it this way. I believe and have my reasons for believing. I can witness to another person, but I have no physical way of demonstrating the basis for my belief. If I said that I had a personal conversation with God, what evidence could I provide to demonstrate that with high confidence to another. Others might believe I do, but that is just showing faith in me and not evidence for the claim.

I'm pursuing you for evolution knowledge and to bridge gaps in my knowledge, but yes, I'm hesitant to pour out evidence to someone who does not ask for such evidence without an accompanying comment like "you are dishonest, since you ignore Bible errors".
What should you expect when you stated such an obviously incorrect statement that the "Bible is without error" when it is not.

We haven't discussed Bible accuracy or Bible errors, so why pre-judge?
See the answer to your previous statement.

Because I'm a creationist? That seems to be too generalizing for my taste.
I find that creationists make a lot of claims that they believe, but cannot back up. Since you refuse to supply the evidence, my conclusion must be based on the evidence I know and the experience I have. In all of history, no one has been able to demonstrate with evidence, that God exists or that God wrote the Bible. You want to talk about odds. What are the odds that I should randomly meet the one person that might actually be able to make that demonstration?

I do have other agendas, sure, like loving brothers and sisters. Jesus told us both, "The world will know you are mine if you have love, one for another." I love God, I love His Word. Why does that imply to you that I'm dishonest, unscrupulous?
You do not have to be intentionally unscrupulous or dishonest to promote a false agenda. You could merely be mistaken and do that. Your intention may be of the highest sort. That does not mean what you intend is not wrong and since all the evidence supports science here, the obvious answer is that you are wrong. Your presence here may be an attempt to learn if you have covered all your bases and are not dismissing science dogmatically. I do not know for certain. I do know what I read and there is a strong indication of bias that would lead me to conclude that the probability you are here for that reason is low. Not so low that I will not take a little time to converse with you, but low enough that I need more robust evidence against the conclusion to reject it.

That seems an unwarranted accusation.
It is more of an observation based on years of experience going down this same road and a careful reading of your posts and interactions with others. Perhaps it is not dishonesty that I am seeing, but zealous belief and desire that is driving bias and ignorance to achieve a personal goal that, while laudable as a goal, is going about it the wrong way or is the wrong goal to achieve.

Or put another way, are you able to restate that you worry about my fealty to Bible inerrancy because you love me?
My love for my fellow man to shake off dogma, ignorance and superstition, while understanding that they can maintain a strong belief in God is great.

But please do not tell me your love is conditional, for Jesus commanded Christians to love Christians.
Are you testing me for a "Gotcha" moment? This is where I start to lose faith in the person I am talking to. When it starts to look like the trap I suspected all along. If you wish to think of me as not a "true" Christian, you are free to. It will not weaken my faith or mean that the claim is true.

I accept you at your word that you are Christian. I have no way to test that nor an interest in testing it. It does not mean that you cannot be wrong or that your desire to be the bestest Christian you can might not cloud and bias your position on some subject, such as evolution.

I thought you did not want to discuss religion here? Is this one of those examples where you are being honest/but wrong?
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
You have already been supplied with one example of evidence for wing evolution.

Would you not expect to see fully formed wings in present day birds? In what sense would you expect them to be partially formed? Even most birds that have lost the ability to fly or fly well still have wings.

Yes. I know. The amount of information coded in the DNA is incredible. Isn't it cool? And it all got there through the process of evolution.
I do not think that you will get an answer on "partially formed" wings. Partially formed is merely a comfort claim of the creationist even though there are example after example of just that sort of observation.
 

Dan From Smithville

The Flying Elvises, Utah Chapter
Staff member
Premium Member
I do not think that you will get an answer on "partially formed" wings. Partially formed is merely a comfort claim of the creationist even though there are example after example of just that sort of observation.
I like that phrase "comfort claim". It is a very fitting description. Is it your original or is it in general use?

Having heard claims of partially formed and descriptions of a bird with stubby, half wings, I generally expect that is what is being mentioned when it is used.

The creationist conception of evolution and biology is amusing when it is given wing.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
I like that phrase "comfort claim". It is a very fitting description. Is it your original or is it in general use?

Having heard claims of partially formed and descriptions of a bird with stubby, half wings, I generally expect that is what is being mentioned when it is used.

The creationist conception of evolution and biology is amusing when it is given wing.
It may be an original. The "fully formed" claim is similar to the Flat Earthers "water seeks it's own level". A pointless statement that does not support their beliefs.
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
But there is evidence. Not only do we have fossils of transitional wing forms (SOURCE: Arm to Wing Evolution - from Dinosaur to Bird Evolution ), we have modern arms and proto-wings that exist today.


"Complexity" is a nebulous term with no measureable basis or practical application in this debate.

I can see modern flightless birds with fully formed wings, so it may have been unfair for us to try to define protowings from forensics.

But your second post requires defining terms, via statistics. For example, evolutionists concluded a cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. This would raise the odds of this development alone to the 32nd power, with some modifications for an appendix helping a species. Do you think a vestigial organ was so helpful, it evolved 32 times separately? ;)
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
So you don't understand at all. Species don't "pop into existence" - change from one to another is gradual. What on earth do you think recessive genes have to do with it?

Sure, and so you are aware of gaps like complex eyes or morphological leaps, with no forensic evidence of gradual change?
 

BilliardsBall

Veteran Member
What "statistical odds" and why should they be raised to the 32nd power? Many features evolve more than once simply because they (more specifically the small changes that lead to them) have a survival advantage in similar environments.

A vestigial appendix evolved 32 separate times in different genera? Really?
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
I can see modern flightless birds with fully formed wings, so it may have been unfair for us to try to define protowings from forensics.

But your second post requires defining terms, via statistics. For example, evolutionists concluded a cecal appendix evolved independently at least 32 separate times in mammals. This would raise the odds of this development alone to the 32nd power, with some modifications for an appendix helping a species. Do you think a vestigial organ was so helpful, it evolved 32 times separately? ;)
A valid source for such a claim is needed.
 
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