A Trump Presidency and Social Security

[Jayhawker Soule]

The following is from today's New York Times:

Social Security​

​

Mr. Trump’s campaign has said he wouldn’t cut “one penny” from Social Security. But his policy proposals thus far would put the program on shakier ground, and “dramatically worsen” the program’s finances, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy group.​

​

Social Security has long faced a financing problem, in large part because of demographic shifts. More baby boomers are collecting payments, and those retirees are living longer. At the same time, a declining birthrate has produced fewer workers contributing to payroll taxes, which is the primary source of Social Security funds.​

​

The trust fund that pays retiree benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that point, incoming tax revenue will be enough to pay out 79 percent of scheduled benefits — if nothing is done, all beneficiaries would see their checks shrink by 21 percent.​

​

There are two ways to solve this problem: raising taxes or trimming benefits, or some combination therein, both of which require congressional approval.​

​

But Mr. Trump has proposed cutting various taxes that help pay for the program, including ending taxes on overtime pay and tips, which would reduce payroll taxes. He also wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would put more money into retirees’ pockets but eliminate another revenue source.​

His plan to place steep tariffs on imports could raise prices, which means benefit payouts could also rise because they receive cost-of-living adjustments, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Deporting unauthorized immigrants, another Trump promise, would cut the number of immigrant workers paying into the program. Taken together, those policies would accelerate the trust funds’ insolvency and cause deeper benefit cuts, the group said.​

​

In the past, Mr. Trump has said he would be open to cuts on social insurance programs like Social Security, but then walked back those statements. [source]​

So, where and how is this prognosis flawed?

 

[Kfox]

The following is from today's New York Times:

Social Security​

​

Mr. Trump’s campaign has said he wouldn’t cut “one penny” from Social Security. But his policy proposals thus far would put the program on shakier ground, and “dramatically worsen” the program’s finances, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy group.​

​

Social Security has long faced a financing problem, in large part because of demographic shifts. More baby boomers are collecting payments, and those retirees are living longer. At the same time, a declining birthrate has produced fewer workers contributing to payroll taxes, which is the primary source of Social Security funds.​

​

The trust fund that pays retiree benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that point, incoming tax revenue will be enough to pay out 79 percent of scheduled benefits — if nothing is done, all beneficiaries would see their checks shrink by 21 percent.​

​

There are two ways to solve this problem: raising taxes or trimming benefits, or some combination therein, both of which require congressional approval.​

​

But Mr. Trump has proposed cutting various taxes that help pay for the program, including ending taxes on overtime pay and tips, which would reduce payroll taxes. He also wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would put more money into retirees’ pockets but eliminate another revenue source.​

His plan to place steep tariffs on imports could raise prices, which means benefit payouts could also rise because they receive cost-of-living adjustments, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Deporting unauthorized immigrants, another Trump promise, would cut the number of immigrant workers paying into the program. Taken together, those policies would accelerate the trust funds’ insolvency and cause deeper benefit cuts, the group said.​

​

In the past, Mr. Trump has said he would be open to cuts on social insurance programs like Social Security, but then walked back those statements. [source]​

So, where and how is this prognosis flawed?

I think the main reason Social Security is going bankrupt is because so much of it is going to other programs that have nothing to do with retirement folks. If they only used it for people upon retirement, it probably wouldn’t be in the mess it’s in right now.

IMO Social Security is a scam. I worked since I was a teenager, putting money in the program. When I was ready to retire, I was paying $1,000 per month into the program. Upon retiring, all I got was $2,000 per month. If I had the chance to invest all of that money I put in the program over the years into the Stock Market, I would have millions and millions of dollars which would have provided far more than just $2,000 per month.

 

[Kathryn]

I think the main reason Social Security is going bankrupt is because so much of it is going to other programs that have nothing to do with retirement folks. If they only used it for people upon retirement, it probably wouldn’t be in the mess it’s in right now.

IMO Social Security is a scam. I worked since I was a teenager, putting money in the program. When I was ready to retire, I was paying $1,000 per month into the program. Upon retiring, all I got was $2,000 per month. If I had the chance to invest all of that money I put in the program over the years into the Stock Market, I would have millions and millions of dollars which would have provided far more than just $2,000 per month.

I totally agree with this assessment. Talk about mismanaged funds!

 

[F1fan]

The following is from today's New York Times:

Social Security​

​

Mr. Trump’s campaign has said he wouldn’t cut “one penny” from Social Security. But his policy proposals thus far would put the program on shakier ground, and “dramatically worsen” the program’s finances, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy group.​

​

Social Security has long faced a financing problem, in large part because of demographic shifts. More baby boomers are collecting payments, and those retirees are living longer. At the same time, a declining birthrate has produced fewer workers contributing to payroll taxes, which is the primary source of Social Security funds.​

​

The trust fund that pays retiree benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that point, incoming tax revenue will be enough to pay out 79 percent of scheduled benefits — if nothing is done, all beneficiaries would see their checks shrink by 21 percent.​

​

There are two ways to solve this problem: raising taxes or trimming benefits, or some combination therein, both of which require congressional approval.​

​

But Mr. Trump has proposed cutting various taxes that help pay for the program, including ending taxes on overtime pay and tips, which would reduce payroll taxes. He also wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would put more money into retirees’ pockets but eliminate another revenue source.​

His plan to place steep tariffs on imports could raise prices, which means benefit payouts could also rise because they receive cost-of-living adjustments, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Deporting unauthorized immigrants, another Trump promise, would cut the number of immigrant workers paying into the program. Taken together, those policies would accelerate the trust funds’ insolvency and cause deeper benefit cuts, the group said.​

​

In the past, Mr. Trump has said he would be open to cuts on social insurance programs like Social Security, but then walked back those statements. [source]​

So, where and how is this prognosis flawed?

Another solution is to borrow more money selling bonds. But this will increase the defeict even more, and create a long term stress on how to pay off the debt in the future.

Or a beter solution is a wealth tax, and this be used to cover SS payouts. Trump will certainly not make any of this a priority.

 

[Kathryn]

I'm OK with a wealth tax.

 

[F1fan]

I think the main reason Social Security is going bankrupt is because so much of it is going to other programs that have nothing to do with retirement folks. If they only used it for people upon retirement, it probably wouldn’t be in the mess it’s in right now.

Reagan famously raided the accounts to pay for other things. But the money is still "there". The government just has to pay it back. It's like if you had $1000 in your savings account and you loaned it to a friend, you can still say you have $1000. The friend just has to pay it back.

IMO Social Security is a scam. I worked since I was a teenager, putting money in the program. When I was ready to retire, I was paying $1,000 per month into the program. Upon retiring, all I got was $2,000 per month. If I had the chance to invest all of that money I put in the program over the years into the Stock Market, I would have millions and millions of dollars which would have provided far more than just $2,000 per month.

Well this would depend on timing. If this was the early 2000's you might have lost most all of it by 2008. If you invested in 2009 and kept it there all this time you would have massive gains. My trust fund has tripled in that time. I just hope my dad's investment company will pull out of the market before it collapses again. At some point the rick will pull their investments and the stock market will fall. We have a year, maybe two. Then we will see what the midterms do.

 

[wellwisher]

The following is from today's New York Times:

Social Security​

​

Mr. Trump’s campaign has said he wouldn’t cut “one penny” from Social Security. But his policy proposals thus far would put the program on shakier ground, and “dramatically worsen” the program’s finances, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy group.​

​

Social Security has long faced a financing problem, in large part because of demographic shifts. More baby boomers are collecting payments, and those retirees are living longer. At the same time, a declining birthrate has produced fewer workers contributing to payroll taxes, which is the primary source of Social Security funds.​

​

The trust fund that pays retiree benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that point, incoming tax revenue will be enough to pay out 79 percent of scheduled benefits — if nothing is done, all beneficiaries would see their checks shrink by 21 percent.​

​

There are two ways to solve this problem: raising taxes or trimming benefits, or some combination therein, both of which require congressional approval.​

​

But Mr. Trump has proposed cutting various taxes that help pay for the program, including ending taxes on overtime pay and tips, which would reduce payroll taxes. He also wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would put more money into retirees’ pockets but eliminate another revenue source.​

His plan to place steep tariffs on imports could raise prices, which means benefit payouts could also rise because they receive cost-of-living adjustments, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Deporting unauthorized immigrants, another Trump promise, would cut the number of immigrant workers paying into the program. Taken together, those policies would accelerate the trust funds’ insolvency and cause deeper benefit cuts, the group said.​

​

In the past, Mr. Trump has said he would be open to cuts on social insurance programs like Social Security, but then walked back those statements. [source]​

So, where and how is this prognosis flawed?

I like the idea of no tax on social security. This will be like a benefit increase. The retirees who also have to work part time, by having social security, tax free, will mean that their part time work will also become tax free, The extra amount you can earn, without impacting your SS benefit, by itself, will now be below the threshold of taxes. This benefit will occur all without raising taxes or borrowing. Let the elderly tax payer keep their money and shrink government.

I would also isolate social security, so it is just for the retirees and all needy elderly. Having 25 year old drunken liberals on the dole is insane. Illegal immigrant ripping off the elderly, also has to end. We should have separate programs for those people, but at the state level. Liberal states that think that is a good idea, will have to deal with voters at election time, if the states run it.

I like the Trump approach of making an opportunity economy, so the welfare state goes from the safety hammock back to a safety net, due to more jobs and opportunity for the American dream. Buying votes; welfare state, with tax payer money has to end. I would also go for each party paying for their pet programs at the state level. Blue states will need to increases taxes.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I think the main reason Social Security is going bankrupt is because so much of it is going to other programs that have nothing to do with retirement folks.

Who would you eliminate?

IMO Social Security is a scam.

Therefore, what should be done?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I would also isolate social security, so it is just for the retirees and all needy elderly. Having 25 year old drunken liberals on the dole is insane.

What is the current number of "25 year old drunken liberals on the dole"?

 

[Revoltingest]

I think the main reason Social Security is going bankrupt is because so much of it is going to other programs that have nothing to do with retirement folks. If they only used it for people upon retirement, it probably wouldn’t be in the mess it’s in right now.

IMO Social Security is a scam. I worked since I was a teenager, putting money in the program. When I was ready to retire, I was paying $1,000 per month into the program. Upon retiring, all I got was $2,000 per month. If I had the chance to invest all of that money I put in the program over the years into the Stock Market, I would have millions and millions of dollars which would have provided far more than just $2,000 per month.

I see your mistake.
You believe that SS is a trust fund.
It isn't.
This will clarify things...

https://www.cato.org/commentary/there-right-social-security

Excerpted...
"....Social Security is not an insurance program at all.
It is simply a payroll tax on one side and a welfare
program on the other."

 

[Alien826]

I like the idea of no tax on social security. This will be like a benefit increase. The retirees who also have to work part time, by having social security, tax free, will mean that their part time work will also become tax free, The extra amount you can earn, without impacting your SS benefit, by itself, will now be below the threshold of taxes. This benefit will occur all without raising taxes or borrowing. Let the elderly tax payer keep their money and shrink government.

Remember how tax is levied on SS. It is already tax free until your other income gets above a certain level (look it up for an exact number, somewhere around $30K) then a proportion is taxed until it reaches a maximum of 80%. That's 80% of it taxed, not 80% tax.

So, those most in need (those with small to no other income) will get nothing and those that need it less will benefit. I'm in the latter group btw.

 

[Twilight Hue]

I totally agree with this assessment. Talk about mismanaged funds!

I do agree that Social Security does have the hallmarks of a ponzi scheme.

 

[Alien826]

What is the current number of "25 year old drunken liberals on the dole"?

Um, let's see. It's ..... one! Oh sorry, he just got a job.

 

[Revoltingest]

Remember how tax is levied on SS. It is already tax free until your other income gets above a certain level (look it up for an exact number, somewhere around $30K) then a proportion is taxed until it reaches a maximum of 80%. That's 80% of it taxed, not 80% tax.

So, those most in need (those with small to no other income) will get nothing and those that need it less will benefit. I'm in the latter group btw.

Ref...

Is Social Security Income Taxable? (2024 Update)

If your Social Security income is taxable depends on your income from other sources. Here are the 2024 IRS limits.

smartasset.com