Yes, authorities can be wrong. But they are much less likely to be wrong than the average person.
That doesn't change the fact that you are still committing the fallacy of appeal to authority by using only an appeal to authority as the support for your conclusion.
You haven't done away with the problem that logically you cannot assume something is true just because an authority says it is.
And because you cannot assume that, appealing to their authority alone can never constitute a valid argument in support of a conclusion.
At that point you aren't talking about objective logical truth you're talking about your opinion.
You can choose to believe something is true because an authority says it - but that's merely represents your opinion.
When you start talking about making claims about what is true then now you have the burden of proof to provide some objective logical arguments to support why we should believe your claim is true.
Saying "I believe them because I think they are more likely to be right than you are" doesn't prove that what you are believing is actually true.
You are merely giving a reason for why you hold your opinion - but it's still just an opinion.
If you aren't going to try to claim your belief is true then you don't have a burden to abide by the laws of logic.
But the moment you start asserting something is true, and not just your opinion, then you now have the burden to support your conclusion in a way that does not violate the laws of logic.
Since absolute proof is impossible except in logic or math, the question becomes one of probabilities. And an authority in an area of study is much more likely to be right. At the very least, a consensus of authorities is going to be the best answer we have at the time.
You are fallaciously conflating two unrelated concepts and therefore committing a fallacy of false equivalence
The two different concepts you are confusing:
1. The fact that you can make a conclusion in an argument that involves probability being part of the conclusion (ie. You aren't claiming your conclusion is absolutely proven to be true beyond doubt but claiming it is the best explanation of the evidence).
2. Your claim that the logical arguments used to arrive at your conclusion can involve probability.
The later is a complete misunderstanding of what logic is and how it works to support a conclusion.
Using logic to prove your conclusion is never an exercise of probability. Logical arguments are objective and binary in nature. Meaning: it is either objectively valid or invalid.
There is no probability curve for the whether or not your logic is valid or invalid, even if the conclusion you arrive at from logic involves a probability curve.
Let's look more closely at the argument from authority to understand why this is the case:
Premise: A paper by a scientist says the earth will turn into jello in one year.
Argument: A scientist said it, therefore it is likely to true.
Conclusion: Therefore, the earth will turn into jello in one year.
That would actually be the fallacy of appeal to probability if you formulated your argument that way.
You can't state your conclusion is certain to happen based on saying it's probable it could be true.
It is false to conclude because your argument involves a statement that something is probable, instead of certain, that it becomes valid logic.
But that's not how we determine whether or not logic is fallacious.
By definition, logic is fallacious because it is invalid. Meaning, it doesn't objectively work to bring you from your premise to your conclusion.
Does the logic in this case objectively allow you to go from your premise to your conclusion? No. Because your conclusion states as a fact that something must happen but your logic is giving you no reason to conclude it must happen.
Therefore, it is fallacious (ie invalid) logic even though you formulated it as a probability.
But what happens if you reformulate your logic so that the conclusion is also a probability?
Premise: A paper by a scientist says the earth will turn into jello in one year.
Argument: A scientist said it, therefore it is likely to true.
Conclusion: Therefore, the earth will likely turn into jello in one year.
It's still invalid logic because your argument is presuming something which you haven't proven is true.
You can't prove that this particular paper by this particular scientist has any objective probability of being true before you've even read it. You're assuming it has any probability of being true without proving your assumption is true.
Making inferences from history about how often other scientists have been right can not directly mathematically translate into claiming this particular paper has that percentage chance of being right.
But that's even not relevant to get into because your argument is still fallacious in the sense that it presumes we can't actually analyze the arguments of these scientists to determine if what they say is actually logically true or not.
The fact is we are not dealing with issues that give us no other means by which to judge what is true except by studying probabilities.
We have the arguments of the scientist and their data, presumably. You can use that to argue directly for something. We can refute those arguments directly.
The fact that you are unable or unwilling to do that doesn't give you the logical basis for using an appeal to probability to claim something is true when you have no need to appeal to probability because the actual data is in front of us.
That would be a fallacy of avoiding the issue. Because you're unable or unwilling to deal with the actual data and the actual arguments, you try to avoid doing that by arguing from probability.
That would be like a fallacious appeal to your own inability to understand something. But your inability to understand what a scientist has said doesn't mean you no have a logical reason to start arguing it's true based on appeal to historical probabilities that scientists are true X%.
The only way you don't commit a fallacy of appeal to authority, on the basis that you don't understand how to argue what the authority has claimed, is if both parties presume to agree with each other that the authority should be regarded as providing true claims.
But if these parties do not share that common presumption then appealing to authority is a fallacy.
And many don't accept anything a scientist says as true just because a scientist says it is so. So you need to either be prepared in that case to argue the actual data or you need to admit you just aren't equipped to prove what they say is true and are simply choosing to believe in what they say based on faith in them.
Which ironically is what most who worship science don't think they are doing, and attack religion for doing.
It's like the example of appealing to Bible Scripture to prove a claim. That only works if both parties involved already accept the validity of the Bible as a source of truth. If one party does not accept that premise is true then you have to do more work to establish the truth of your claim beyond just appealing to the fact that the Bible says it. Ie. Either you have to establish why we should believe the Bible should be presumed to be true or you need to find another means by which to support the truth of your claim without the Bible.
Ultimately then your conclusion doesn't represent a factual true genuine probability of what percentage chance this paper has of being right. But even if it did it would still constitute a fallacy of avoiding the issue because the actual data and arguments are available to analyze and argue over - so there's no need for you to turn to fallacious probability arguments in the first place.
Now you might say "I choose to believe it's true because I think it's more probable the scientist is true than not". That's all well and good as your opinion - but you have no logical basis for then trying to claim I, or others, need to accept your opinion is true unless you can give logically valid arguments to substantiate it.
All you're really doing is expressing an opinion that you think one should believe in a conclusion because a scientist shares it - but you can't logically prove one should have to accept the conclusion is true on the basis that a scientist shares it.
And that's the part I think you don't understand about how logic works.
By definition, logic is about being able to objectively say someone must accept the conclusion is true because the logic is valid and the premises are sound.
That is, by definition, what makes it objective and not subjective
That's why we use logic to establish truth in science. Because it has objective rules that if abided by reach objective conclusions.
But by the way you formulate your logic, you can't say your conclusion must be accepted as true. There it's invalid logic.
So you can't use that invalid logic to claim anyone needs to accept something as true.
You can't logically tell anyone that they must accept a conclusion is more likely to be true than not true just because a scientist has said it is. For the reasons I outlined.
Therefore, if you can't tell someone they must logically accept a conclusion (because your premises are unsound or your logic is invalid) then you aren't making a logical argument by definition but are simply stating your opinion.
To assert something you can't say must be accepted as true is to merely express your opinion.
But your opinion doesn't obligate other people to objectively accept your opinion is true until you can give them logically valid reasons and sound premises that would force them to objectively arrive at the same conclusion you did (unless they can offer logically valid counter arguments that refute your argument or undermine your premises).