But this is circular reasoning. Probability is based on evidence, and evidential accuracy is based on probability. It's the very definition of confirmation bias.
No, it isn't. You're just saying the same thing in two different ways. A thing happens. We evaluate what the possible explanations for that thing are, based on what we know. Some of those explanations are inherently more or less probable, based on what they are and what the thing we saw was. As we see more things happen, we keep recalculating the probability that our explanation is the most probable, or if at some point it becomes unprobable. That's not circular, and it's literally the opposite of confirmation bias. It's a textbook example of being as objective and reasonable as possible.
But that "affirmative evidence" is being defined and recognized by what you want 'love' to be, to you, is it not?
Again, no. Love has a definition in English. I didn't invent it. There are behaviors consistent with that definition. And behaviors inconsistent with that definition.
How you want to see love manifested in your life. Just as "God" is being defined by what the theist wants God to be. And just as the theist's "affirming evidence" is being defined and determined by that same desire being fulfilled.
Incorrect, again. As I said before, theists can and do define "God" in a myriad of ways. However they define it, we can look at that definition and determine what evidence we would expect if such a thing existed. Then we look out in the world, and see if that evidence is there.
Now some theists play a cute word game where they'll say "God is the universe" or "God is love" or "God is life." And, okay, if you want to define your God as Oprah, okay sure, your "God" exists. But you're basically muddying the waters with those semantics.
I think if you think about it, you will realize that is not true. You may have been neutral about the individual (probability), but not about the desire. Not about the definition of "evidence".
If I asked you to write down right now a list of what the evidence would be that a person loves me, I'd be willing to bet money that my partner ticks most if not all the boxes. That, to me, is a pretty strong indication that I'm not just deluding myself into thinking he loves me when he actually doesn't. And you simply can't complete that same exercise with any god I'm familiar with.
What I am trying to explain to you is that it inevitable to the human experience and understanding of 'what is'. We imagine "reality" based on very minimal experience, and desire, starting in the womb. And everything we "learn" about it after that is being determine by how it 'fits in' with that imagined reality. By how it "works" relative to our desires and expectations. And that is our innate, inescapable bias: that pre-imagined reality, and how every new experience we have gets defined and "probable-ized' by it.
Our perceptions of reality change and adapt all the time based on new incoming evidence that shifts our view. And yes, of course we all have biases - biases that can be reduced, if not outright eliminated, by independent verification of the data we've collected. And yes, of course quite a bit of our worldview building is a consequence of childhood (and adulthood) trial and error - learning "what works," as you say. Put your hand on a hot stove - ouchie. Lesson learned. That's not a "confirmation bias," that's an accurate assessment of the danger posed by that object.
And none of that is an excuse to retain belief in something you have no good evidence for simply because it makes you feel good. And that's what you're trying to do here. You're trying to rationalize your theism by casting doubt on our entire ability to perceive anything accurately. And that dog just won't hunt. Science is too good a method.
What I am saying is that because we cannot know anything with absolute certainty, our presumptions of probable truthfulness are based on wishful thinking.
No, they're simply not. You're just incorrect here. Our presumptions of probable truthfulness are based on the actual evidence we have. If I have to turn the key in my car's ignition to get the engine to start one time, and then another time, and then literally thousands of times, and in fact my car NEVER starts without me putting my key in the ignition, it's not "wishful thinking" for me to infer that, hey
I need to put my key in the ignition if I want my car to start. Wishful thinking would be believing that if I don't have my keys, I can cause my car to start with a prayer to my God. I'm sorry, you're not going to get away with equivocating between those two scenarios. They're not equivalent. One is probabilistic and evidence-based. The other is a wish.
That is the wish that what we believe so far about reality, is accurate, even though it almost certainly is not. Because that imaginary, presumed "reality" that we have invented in our minds, and are using to assess the probability of truthfulness is, itself, improbable.
I have no idea how you did that math. But even if the existence of our universe itself is improbable, that doesn't make all events within that universe and its physics equally probable. Again, you're just in error there.
Understanding this gives us the ability and the license to alter our presumed (imaginary) "reality" to better suit our needs and desires. We're doing it, anyway. But once we realize we're doing it, we can do it more effectively.
Believing you can actually alter reality outside your head with your thoughts is a really dangerous, and repeatedly debunked, idea. It's the reason psychotic people do dangerous things because they believe they're invincible and nothing bad will happen. It's the reason right-wing fundamentalists believe they won't get sick from COVID if they just pray to their god for protection.
I think we've sufficiently derailed this thing. I've explained this stuff before to you and pointed out where your thinking goes wrong, I think several times over several threads. If you want to chat more about it, I'd suggest you start a new thread.