Alright. Here's his claim, "The die has rolled a six," and it's either valid or it isn't. You're rejecting the validity of his claim. What has made you stamp it "invalid"? I'm assuming that it is the probability, without confirmation of the actuality, of its truth value. You've assessed that it's probably false. That "false," however probable, is what Copernicus is talking about.
No, it's not probably false, it's definitely invalid. I'm not making a probabilistic argument at all - I would say the same when flipping a coin of if the claim was that the dice fell on either a "five", a "four", a "three", a "two" or a "one" but not on "six". What makes it invalid is the failure to provide any justification for the conclusion. Either no argument was attempted or the argument failed somewhere along the line. What that "justification" might be is another topic though, so let's not get into that.
"The dice has rolled a six" is a conclusion from "nothing". It does not take the form of a valid, logical argument - therefore it is not valid. Obviously that doesn't mean the dice can't have rolled a six and it doesn't mean a valid argument is impossible.
But you do --you can never not "touch its truth value" parts and still come to a conclusion of validity. Validity depends on truth.
Yes - the truth of the claim "as a whole", that I have to examine. But that isn't limited to it's conclusion. If the claim only consists of a conclusion, then it's not an argument at all - I just reject it by default as being an invalid argument/claim.
But I don't necessarily make a claim about the truth value of the conclusion (or any other part) apart from the argument - that's not my job and many times it's completely impossible to do. You can have a scarred dog while being wrong in your claim that it was caused by the butterfly. You can have a god while being wrong about your belief that "everything has a cause, therefore a god must exist".