Avi's Economics Thread

[Avi1001]

Did you ever wonder what determines the value of the US dollar ? Probably not. But if you did, it makes you a nerd, like me .

50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar – Currency Trading.net

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news...MBINED_BRE96S00E_1&cat=Top.Investing.RT&IMG=Y

What will happen to the US Dollar in 2014 ? We can make predictions, and the see who was right !

So here I go, I predict the US Dollar continues to drop this year. Anyone want to discuss why ? Anyone predict it strengthens ?

Is there any interest in discussing broader issues related to International and US economics ? Any economists here ?

 

[Revoltingest]

Did you ever wonder what determines the value of the US dollar ? Probably not. But if you did, it makes you a nerd, like me .

50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar – Currency Trading.net

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news...MBINED_BRE96S00E_1&cat=Top.Investing.RT&IMG=Y

What will happen to the US Dollar in 2014 ? We can make predictions, and the see who was right !

So here I go, I predict the US Dollar continues to drop this year. Anyone want to discuss why ? Anyone predict it strengthens ?

Is there any interest in discussing broader issues related to International and US economics ? Any economists here ?

I'm an economeer. (It's like an economist, but my training is more akin to a Mouseketeer.)
I give a 95% chance that the dollar will fall relative to other major currencies.
Factors listed in order of importance:
- Foreign borrowing.
- Fiat currency.
- Stagnant domestic economy.
- Decreasing productivity relative to foreign countries. This is a more long term factor.

 

[metis]

What will happen to the US Dollar in 2014 ? We can make predictions, and the see who was right !

I predict that I'll have less of it because my wife shops too much.

 

[Avi1001]

I'm an economeer. (It's like an economist, but my training is more akin to a Mouseketeer.)

So then what are the futures on cheese ?

I give a 95% chance that the dollar will fall relative to other major currencies.
Factors listed in order of importance:
- Foreign borrowing.
- Fiat currency.
- Stagnant domestic economy.
- Decreasing productivity relative to foreign countries. This is a more long term factor.

Lets see if anyone disagrees. I say it de-values 3% this year. That's about 0.5% more than what our inflation will be. So we will be inflating our economy to keep up with our monetary de-valuation. Great economic strategy .

 

[Avi1001]

I predict that I'll have less of it because my wife shops too much.

Hehe, Metis, you need to invest in a 3D printer this year. You can make extra dollars by printing Kosher bacon, and marketing it through our Entreprenuership thread .

 

[MysticSang'ha]

Did you ever wonder what determines the value of the US dollar ? Probably not. But if you did, it makes you a nerd, like me .

50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar – Currency Trading.net

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news...MBINED_BRE96S00E_1&cat=Top.Investing.RT&IMG=Y

What will happen to the US Dollar in 2014 ? We can make predictions, and the see who was right !

So here I go, I predict the US Dollar continues to drop this year. Anyone want to discuss why ? Anyone predict it strengthens ?

Is there any interest in discussing broader issues related to International and US economics ? Any economists here ?

I don't consider myself an economist, but I know began having a more vested interest in the value of the dollar as of late.

I predict the value of the dollar will drop again in 2014, for a few reasons:

- Though our federal deficit has shrunk in Q4 of 2013 to the point of surplus, consumer confidence is still low. The shaky trust in the Obama administrations foreign and domestic policies including Obamacare (which as an employer has me putting my boxing gloves on in 2015 and 2016), as well as drone strikes and continuing staying in places decimated from foreign wars, has people looking to invest in gold schemes and scaling back in a bulk of spending domestically.

- Lower interest rates mean more investors are looking elsewhere to put their money for a quicker return. Even though much of the advice given is to maintain their investments, our leadership and consumerism mentality pushes the attitude of immediate gratification and doesn't ride out the ups and downs of the market.

- Our trade deficit is still outrageous. We don't export our manufacturing, ag, and tech products nearly as much as we import. We therefore produce nothing much outside of more debt, where through fiat currency methods the Fed floods the economy with more printed money and furthering devaluing the dollar. We have to begin producing on our land with our resources and our citizens more so than outsourcing, and at this point I don't see that much of a push this year. Re: Trans-Pacific Partnership....like NAFTA on steroids.

- Our slavery to the Big Oil and Big Pharm industries maintains a stranglehold on our food and energy supply. We as an entire country like our food fast and our energy cheap, and local ordinances that restrict freedom from localizing these two industries don't help. We are forced as a nation to continue to add to our dilemma by putting all our eggs into one basket with food from California or outsourcing to Chile, and eggs into the energy basket with fracking, Alaskan oil, or continuing creating fake wars to get more oil from abroad. Domestic energy and food planning is a mess, furthering the decrease of the value of the dollar.

.

.

.

There's more I want to learn, but that's my first impression and my first prediction.

 

[Avi1001]

So far it's 3 expecting de-valuation, and none against. Does anyone see a trend ?

I don't consider myself an economist, but I know began having a more vested interest in the value of the dollar as of late.

I predict the value of the dollar will drop again in 2014, for a few reasons:

- Though our federal deficit has shrunk in Q4 of 2013 to the point of surplus, consumer confidence is still low. The shaky trust in the Obama administrations foreign and domestic policies including Obamacare (which as an employer has me putting my boxing gloves on in 2015 and 2016), as well as drone strikes and continuing staying in places decimated from foreign wars, has people looking to invest in gold schemes and scaling back in a bulk of spending domestically.

- Lower interest rates mean more investors are looking elsewhere to put their money for a quicker return. Even though much of the advice given is to maintain their investments, our leadership and consumerism mentality pushes the attitude of immediate gratification and doesn't ride out the ups and downs of the market.

- Our trade deficit is still outrageous. We don't export our manufacturing, ag, and tech products nearly as much as we import. We therefore produce nothing much outside of more debt, where through fiat currency methods the Fed floods the economy with more printed money and furthering devaluing the dollar. We have to begin producing on our land with our resources and our citizens more so than outsourcing, and at this point I don't see that much of a push this year. Re: Trans-Pacific Partnership....like NAFTA on steroids.

- Our slavery to the Big Oil and Big Pharm industries maintains a stranglehold on our food and energy supply. We as an entire country like our food fast and our energy cheap, and local ordinances that restrict freedom from localizing these two industries don't help. We are forced as a nation to continue to add to our dilemma by putting all our eggs into one basket with food from California or outsourcing to Chile, and eggs into the energy basket with fracking, Alaskan oil, or continuing creating fake wars to get more oil from abroad. Domestic energy and food planning is a mess, furthering the decrease of the value of the dollar.

.

.

.

There's more I want to learn, but that's my first impression and my first prediction.

 

[Revoltingest]

Slavery? Stranglehold?
We freely choose to buy these commodities from suppliers in competition with each other.
That we don't make other choices is our fault, not the industries.
The wars overseas don't get us oil....on the contrary, we only burn it in the process.
Most of our oil comes from the USA & Canuckistan.
These wars are entirely the result of our voting for politicians who wage them.
Bush & Obama were both re-elected while wasting over a trillion dollars in Iraq & Afghanistan.
Don't look to capitalism for your boogeymen....look to the voters who elect only from the Big Two.

 

[Revoltingest]

Think Hillary will be different?

 

[Avi1001]

Man, you are good with Photoshop ! Are you creating these images yourself ?

Think Hillary will be different?

 

[MysticSang'ha]

Slavery? Stranglehold?
We freely choose to buy these commodities from suppliers in competition with each other.
That we don't make other choices is our fault, not the industries.
The wars overseas don't get us oil....on the contrary, we only burn it in the process.
Most of our oil comes from the USA & Canuckistan.
These wars are entirely the result of our voting for politicians who wage them.
Bush & Obama were both re-elected while wasting over a trillion dollars in Iraq & Afghanistan.
Don't look to capitalism for your boogeymen....look to the voters who elect only from the Big Two.

I don't share the view that we are really that free to make the choices we'd like. Consider Monsanto's seed patents that claim if they have pollen that falls on our land, that technically what grows from that is their property. All because of corporate lobbyists putting their hands in the congressional pot.

I look at crony capitalism, not Main Street mom & pop capitalism, as part of the culprit. Which the Big Two tend to go to bed with more often than not when looking for campaign funding.

I'll give you the fact that the U.S. doesn't actually get most of the oil from the Middle East, though Latin America brings us more oil than Canada at the moment, but the wars weren't about national security. I still think oil was a large motivator for the wars in order to secure more imperialistic measures concerning energy sources than other motivations.

 

[Revoltingest]

Man, you are good with Photoshop ! Are you creating these images yourself ?

I am far too inadequate to work such magic.
I just search the internet, find something, & post it.
(Yeah, I have too much time on my hands.)

 

[Revoltingest]

I don't share the view that we are really that free to make the choices we'd like. Consider Monsanto's seed patents that claim if they have pollen that falls on our land, that technically what grows from that is their property. All because of corporate lobbyists putting their hands in the congressional pot.

If they hold the patent, it would prevent farmers from making money on it without a license.
But they don't own it. You can let the crops grow, & use them for personal consumption.

I look at crony capitalism, not Main Street mom & pop capitalism, as part of the culprit. Which the Big Two tend to go to bed with more often than not when looking for campaign funding.

Crony capitalism is more of a market distortion & wasting of taxes problem.
It doesn't dictate what we buy, even though it will influence choices.

I'll give you the fact that the U.S. doesn't actually get most of the oil from the Middle East, though Latin America brings us more oil than Canada at the moment, but the wars weren't about national security. I still think oil was a large motivator for the wars in order to secure more imperialistic measures concerning energy sources than other motivations.

If oil were the motive, we'd see us getting it in large quantities from countries whose supply security was at risk.
I don't see this happening.

Our non-Saudi (not at risk) Persian Gulf sources account for only about 4%.
Africa supplies even more, yet we allow pogroms to proceed there without intervention.
I'd say our mid-east misadventures are about support for Israel & ancillary activities, eg,
attacking Iran, responding to related terrorism (9/11), drone attacks in Pakistan.

 

[freethinker44]

Don't look to capitalism for your boogeymen....look to the voters who elect only from the Big Two.

Yeah, but what's the alternative, Gary Johnson? I would've voted for Romney before Johnson, and I was prepared to leave the country if Romney was elected.

 

[Revoltingest]

Yeah, but what's the alternative, Gary Johnson? I would've voted for Romney before Johnson, and I was prepared to leave the country if Romney was elected.

If you only vote for Democrats, & if you'd leave the country when someone else won, then you're part of the...
...well, you know. You don't like the alternatives to continual war , eroding civil liberties & crony capitalism.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

Any economists here ?

No, but I'm an astrologer. However, I generally find both fields to operate according to the same principles, and to have about the same predictive accuracy: if you don't get the prediction you like, find another one who will tell you the prediction you want to hear.

 

[Avi1001]

I don't consider myself an economist, but I know began having a more vested interest in the value of the dollar as of late.

Anything to do with being a business owner ?

I predict the value of the dollar will drop again in 2014, for a few reasons:

- Though our federal deficit has shrunk in Q4 of 2013 to the point of surplus, consumer confidence is still low. The shaky trust in the Obama administrations foreign and domestic policies including Obamacare (which as an employer has me putting my boxing gloves on in 2015 and 2016), as well as drone strikes and continuing staying in places decimated from foreign wars, has people looking to invest in gold schemes and scaling back in a bulk of spending domestically.

Consumer confidence is still very low. Gold prices have been generally dropping, so gold schemes will not work. There will probably be some variation in gold the next 5-10 years, but the trend will probably be generally downward and contrarian.

- Lower interest rates mean more investors are looking elsewhere to put their money for a quicker return. Even though much of the advice given is to maintain their investments, our leadership and consumerism mentality pushes the attitude of immediate gratification and doesn't ride out the ups and downs of the market.

"maintain their investment" is probably not a good idea. Our economy is still in a period of significant change.

- Our trade deficit is still outrageous. We don't export our manufacturing, ag, and tech products nearly as much as we import. We therefore produce nothing much outside of more debt, where through fiat currency methods the Fed floods the economy with more printed money and furthering devaluing the dollar. We have to begin producing on our land with our resources and our citizens more so than outsourcing, and at this point I don't see that much of a push this year. Re: Trans-Pacific Partnership....like NAFTA on steroids.

The trade deficit is a major problem. Think about how many: Chinese, Korean and Japanese - TV's, washing machines, dishwashers, and cars you and your neighbors have ?

- Our slavery to the Big Oil and Big Pharm industries maintains a stranglehold on our food and energy supply. We as an entire country like our food fast and our energy cheap, and local ordinances that restrict freedom from localizing these two industries don't help. We are forced as a nation to continue to add to our dilemma by putting all our eggs into one basket with food from California or outsourcing to Chile, and eggs into the energy basket with fracking, Alaskan oil, or continuing creating fake wars to get more oil from abroad. Domestic energy and food planning is a mess, furthering the decrease of the value of the dollar.

We have to move quickly in the energy domain. And we need to think strategically about the long term move toward renewables.

 

[freethinker44]

You don't like the alternatives to continual war , eroding civil liberties & crony capitalism.

Yeah, that's great, but replacing all taxes with a consumption tax is a complete deal breaker. He could promise he will cure every known disease for free and I would still be against him being president if he wanted to implement a consumption tax. If we had a consumption tax, you might as well just cancel the middle class and say we have either the extremely rich or the extremely poor.

He wants rich people and businesses to pay almost nothing in taxes. He wants the lower 80% of American to pay nearly all of the nations taxes despite having less than 20% of the nations wealth.

 

[Revoltingest]

Yeah, that's great, but replacing all taxes with a consumption tax is a complete deal breaker. He could promise he will cure every known disease for free and I would still be against him being president if he wanted to implement a consumption tax. If we had a consumption tax, you might as well just cancel the middle class and say we have either the extremely rich or the extremely poor.
He wants rich people and businesses to pay almost nothing in taxes. He wants the lower 80% of American to pay nearly all of the nations taxes despite having less than 20% of the nations wealth.

There are always reasons to want to keep the status quo.
But it's still a vote for all the evils we see.
Any support for the underlined claim? (I'm skeptical)

 

[freethinker44]

There are always reasons to want to keep the status quo.
But it's still a vote for all the evils we see.

And that's what elections have become here in the US. It's not who the "best candidate" is, it's who will do the least damage, or who has the better haircut. It's ridiculous.