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Avi's Economics Thread

Kilgore Trout

Misanthropic Humanist
To be sure, some economists have much better track records predicting things than other economists. For instance, those economists who predicted a very drawn out, slow recovery from the Great Recession have been demonstrated to have been substantially correct. People ignore the varying track records of individual economists at their own peril.

No doubt. And some people have better track records of picking lottery numbers than others. Of course, these are often people who employ sophisticated mathematical concepts and models for picking their numbers.
 

Reverend Rick

Frubal Whore
Premium Member
As someone who never has to make another penny in his life, I have no interest in investing or paying any more taxes than I have to. Not having an income helps my tax liability. My efforts are investing in how cheaply I can live in an off grid home and raising my own food.

I am keeping my funds liquid in physical gold which does not have a tax liability. The value is lower right now but you don't lose money if you don't sell low. I don't need to touch any of it, so I am going long term. That is the plan, never need to cash out.

When our country reaches the 30 - 50 Trillion mark in borrowed money and our short term debt financing is faced with higher interest payments not to mention more obligations to the retired citizens, we will have no other choice but to print money like crazy.

The rest of the world will move to another currency and Gold will be the standard to keep it honest.

The stock market is a great place to be if you want growth, I don't need growth, risk, or taxes.

As everyone's utilities rise, my solar will keep providing me with what I need. If you have no bills, you need no income. If you have no income, you pay less taxes.

I find not having a horse in the race comforting. To quote Forest Gump, "One less thing to worry about".
 

Reverend Rick

Frubal Whore
Premium Member
I recently invested in debt, so when currency falters I'll be a winner.
Perfect! Pay them off long term low fixed interest in inflated dollars all the while your equity increases in value. Thats what I did in the 80's. Borrowed at 10% and held 18% CD's. Oh yeah, the DOW was under 2,000 do the math. In the 90's I was in bond funds paying me interest. I was lucky, I got in and out at the right time. :D
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
Intersting financial plan, Rev. Are you a fan of Thoreau and Walden Pond ?

As someone who never has to make another penny in his life, I have no interest in investing or paying any more taxes than I have to. Not having an income helps my tax liability. My efforts are investing in how cheaply I can live in an off grid home and raising my own food.

I am keeping my funds liquid in physical gold which does not have a tax liability. The value is lower right now but you don't lose money if you don't sell low. I don't need to touch any of it, so I am going long term. That is the plan, never need to cash out.

When our country reaches the 30 - 50 Trillion mark in borrowed money and our short term debt financing is faced with higher interest payments not to mention more obligations to the retired citizens, we will have no other choice but to print money like crazy.

The rest of the world will move to another currency and Gold will be the standard to keep it honest.

The stock market is a great place to be if you want growth, I don't need growth, risk, or taxes.

As everyone's utilities rise, my solar will keep providing me with what I need. If you have no bills, you need no income. If you have no income, you pay less taxes.

I find not having a horse in the race comforting. To quote Forest Gump, "One less thing to worry about".
 

MysticSang'ha

Big Squishy Hugger
Premium Member

I think it's plausible.

I wonder if marketing the idea to humans that anything is possible, reachable, and achievable, that humans believe they much own and/or consume all things possible. It, of course, recalls the age-old dilemma of "want" vs. "need", but with tech advances in just the last generation or so, we are plugged in to more confusion of individually wanting what's halfway across the world with what we need here in front of us.

Convince enough people of following this misconception, and civilization reaches a tipping point and achieves the 100th Monkey Effect. Debt is no longer a mark of a lack of discipline or laziness. It is the status quo now.

People often times - and I can be just as guilty of this as anyone else - think that by going to the store and buying organic foods at the supermarket will make a more substantial impact. But beware the labels that surround us. There are hidden costs in many items like food and energy that we are unaware of that only takes a minor diversion from the current path we are on. More electric cars on the road? Use more coal resources as a result. More out-of-season organic fruits and veggies on the market? More transportation costs as a result. More alternative energy sources? More resources to build them and maintain them as a result.

We'll change and adapt, I believe, as a species. But yes, I think civilization as we know it will shift gears pretty quickly.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Steven Hawking has this theory that we will destroy most human life here on Earth because of our "selfish gene", and aren't we seeing this being played out now with global-warming deniers and more and more countries pumping greater amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, even though the evidence is quite overwhelming, and even basic logic should tell us this?

He believes we will have to look for another place in the solar system to live because we are our own worst enemy. But then, what does Hawking know? :rolleyes:
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
During this last recession, which I am not sure we are really out of yet, except maybe for the stock market, we started seeing more suggestions that we might be headed for this sort of radical shift in our economy.

NASA is normally thought of as a reliable source and 15 years is not a long time. That is why this article has a chilling sense about it !

I think it's plausible.

I wonder if marketing the idea to humans that anything is possible, reachable, and achievable, that humans believe they much own and/or consume all things possible. It, of course, recalls the age-old dilemma of "want" vs. "need", but with tech advances in just the last generation or so, we are plugged in to more confusion of individually wanting what's halfway across the world with what we need here in front of us.

Convince enough people of following this misconception, and civilization reaches a tipping point and achieves the 100th Monkey Effect. Debt is no longer a mark of a lack of discipline or laziness. It is the status quo now.

People often times - and I can be just as guilty of this as anyone else - think that by going to the store and buying organic foods at the supermarket will make a more substantial impact. But beware the labels that surround us. There are hidden costs in many items like food and energy that we are unaware of that only takes a minor diversion from the current path we are on. More electric cars on the road? Use more coal resources as a result. More out-of-season organic fruits and veggies on the market? More transportation costs as a result. More alternative energy sources? More resources to build them and maintain them as a result.

We'll change and adapt, I believe, as a species. But yes, I think civilization as we know it will shift gears pretty quickly.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
During this last recession, which I am not sure we are really out of yet, except maybe for the stock market, we started seeing more suggestions that we might be headed for this sort of radical shift in our economy.

NASA is normally thought of as a reliable source and 15 years is not a long time. That is why this article has a chilling sense about it !

I find no fault with the logic of the article, unfortunately. One of my favorite books is "Small Is Beautiful" (no jokes about this, OK?) by the economist E. F. Schumacher, who was a follower of Gandhi, and I do believe he was on the right path. We are tearing our planet apart by overpopulation, pollution, increasing reliance on meat (Einstein was adamant about this), global economy, etc., etc.

It seem to me that if we don't reverse this process, and do it very soon, we're well on the path of self destruction that might make the Great Depression look like luxury living.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
Steven Hawking has this theory that we will destroy most human life here on Earth because of our "selfish gene", and aren't we seeing this being played out now with global-warming deniers and more and more countries pumping greater amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, even though the evidence is quite overwhelming, and even basic logic should tell us this?

He believes we will have to look for another place in the solar system to live because we are our own worst enemy. But then, what does Hawking know? :rolleyes:

Hawking did call for space settlement, and he is visionary.

There is a lot we can do here, on earth, to make life sustainable. Carbon dioxide conversion to fuels, renewables, but the first step is consciousness raising. I hope national and world leadership begins to pay attention.

Isn't the "selfish gene" more Dawkins idea ? (Hawking and Dawkins, what a team :D)
 
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metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
Hawking did call for space settlement, and he is visionary.

There is a lot we can do here, on earth, to make life sustainable. Carbon dioxide conversion to fuels, renewables, but the first step is consciousness raising. I hope national and world leadership begins to pay attention.

Isn't the "selfish gene" more Dawkins idea ? (Hawking and Dawkins, what a team :D)

Yes, it was Dawkins, but I used it because that is what Hawking pretty much agrees with.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist

I don't think it's likely to destroy it in its entirety, but a growing population with diminishing resources, thus making these resources more expensive and less available to all, will force us to severely alter what we do. Or it better.

BTW, this was all predicted by the British anthropologist Desmond Morris back in the early 1970's, and we are now seeing this being played out.
 

Avi1001

reform Jew humanist liberal feminist entrepreneur
Which Morris book does he predict it, Metis ?

I don't think it's likely to destroy it in its entirety, but a growing population with diminishing resources, thus making these resources more expensive and less available to all, will force us to severely alter what we do. Or it better.

BTW, this was all predicted by the British anthropologist Desmond Morris back in the early 1970's, and we are now seeing this being played out.
 
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