I’m looking for numbers.
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Call it . . .
- Thread starter Watchmen
- Start date
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Best of luck. You will need it.
I’m looking for electoral votes. Do you have numbers? Just a prediction?
Twilight Hue
Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Well I don't think anybody really knows for sure, but I don't have any specific numbers on the top of my head. I just think Trump will get the majority of electoral votes. They say if Trump gets Pennsylvania's 19 electoral points, then it's over for Harris.
I would have expected that at least the bleach industry would have experienced enormous gains. Who know what we might see when Trump puts JFK Jr. in charge of the Nation's health system.
I hope you get what you deserve.
Very sensible of you. I can see you understand the difference between people in large groups at rallies, or people answering polls with the family around -- and people all alone, in secret, with their conscience, in the polling booth.
That alone is reason enough not to vote for Trump.
It would be shocking if the Senate goes Democrat (I think it's expected the House will).
anna.
colors your eyes with what's not there
No, I don't have a specific number but I agree with @Evangelicalhumanist and @bobhikes that it'll be 300 or more.
It is entirely possible that Harris will win by a comfortable margin. No one truly knows. But I think you and Anna underestimate how tight this race is.
I believe Biden got 306. Any predictions on whether Harris will get more or less than Biden?
It's all about perspecitive.
Magas: Trump won, but Harris stole the election.
Democrats: Harris won.
Everyone: Chase Oliver came in 3rd.
Magas: Trump won, but Harris stole the election.
Democrats: Harris won.
Everyone: Chase Oliver came in 3rd.
Regiomontanus
Eastern Orthodox
No, thanks.
Right . . . but I'm just looking for pure electoral votes (not the spin that will go with the results).
anna.
colors your eyes with what's not there
I lean towards her getting more than Biden. I'm cautious because I don't feel like another 2016, even though I 100% don't expect it.
Here's what I think: the polls are (again) skewed right, which is why there wasn't even a dribble of a red wave in 22 and there won't be in 24.
Women may very well carry this election. It would be wise not to underestimate them.
Harris has run a tight, disciplined ground game with over a billion dollars raised in a few months and ~100K-strong canvassing team of passionate volunteers. Trump's campaign had none of that.
An interesting thought - how much split tickets may come into play.
The media desperately wanted a horse race. Again, they're gonna be caught flat-footed. They, like the Trump campaign, are starting to see the handwriting on the wall, and they're floating some CYA out there already.
Trump is tired, and everyone but his base is tired of him. His base alone can't win this for him.
I'm sure there's more, but I'm multi-tasking at the moment.
My predictions:
President: Harris takes it - 287 to 251.
Senate: Republicans take control - 51 to 49.
House: I'm going to take a long shot: on election night, the Democrats will take it, 218 to 217. However, between the election and swearing-in, there will be a scandal involving 1 new Democrat representative-elect, who will end up leaving the party as a result. They'll sit as an independent and play spoiler as the "majority-maker," courting both sides.
Perhaps, you may be quite right. But then, I remember what Nietzsche said: "In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."
That might well be part of the wisdom of making that final moment -- when you cast your ballot -- private and secret.
Subduction Zone
Veteran Member
More important than the percent of Republicans and Democrats that have voted already may be the percentage of voters that are men or women. 56% of early voters are women only 43% are men. I think that the difference in the amount of support that Harris has over Trump is 18% among women in Pennsylvania. That combine with the percentage of early voters that are women could easily be death for Trump.
Pennsylvania Democrats say they are optimistic after leading in early voting for women, seniors
Pennsylvania women who are registered as Democrats are responsible for the largest single share of early votes.
www.inquirer.com
Will gender impact the election? What a PA poll says about Harris, Trump support
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in tight race in the Pennsylvania, often along gender lines.
www.goerie.com
Eagerness to vote can by huge in elections. Women are motivated to vote this time around much more than men. A higher percentage of men are Trump supporters, but it does Trump no good if they sit at home on the couch.
We'll all know soon enough! Or maybe we won't. Some states may take days and days to count the votes, which may delay the outcome (I'm looking at you, Pennsylvania!). Of course, if it's not close then that won't matter.