It does make sense, yes. But the one thing I noticed you didn't touch on or respond to was the idea of reproduce-ability.
The oversight was not intentional. Perhaps I didn't want to overburden the text which was already fairly compacted? I'll attempt to address that point now. BTW, I enjoy discussing things like this at this level. Thanks for the discussion.
This is one of the really big differentiators in religious/spiritual/supernatural expectations versus reality.
Before we get into the meat of this, I want to address the framing of this as you have here. You lump religion, spiritual, and supernaturalism as all one thing. They really are not the same, and often are in conflict with one another.
Religion has a tendency to want to kill its mystics, who are at the pinnacle of spirituality. I think this which I just posted here in
this link here to this thread in talking about what developmentalists study and term SQ, or Spiritual Intelligence. You can see very clearly in how spirituality is defined that it is distinct from religion, and that it applies to all humans, regardless of religious proclivities.
But then aside from that, spirituality most definitely does not stand against "reality". It, to me, is very much what connects someone to reality. It grounds them. It is what defines being in touch with reality. It is lived experience, and the quality and texture of being in the world itself. That is what spirituality is, and theist and atheist alike share it in by virtue of being human. Spirituality is not "beliefs". It's
Being.
Moving on....
I can mix baking powder and vinegar and be guaranteed the chemical reaction. There exists an ability to rely on the outcome of this, where there is no such guarantee with any religious expectation.
I would disagree with this on a number of points. Now while certain things in life are predictable, exhibiting consistent patterns which can be mapped out and formulated into predictable responses, most of reality is not so apparently well-ordered. While if you know the math you can predict where Jupiter in its orbit will be exactly 1000 years from today, no one can predict where their dog will be 5 minutes from now.
Only the most rudimentary forms of nature, like rocks and chemicals and anything else on the lowest rungs of the complexity ladder offer themselves to us this way. The rest of it is an order of increasing complexities and greater unpredictabilities. So, even with science as a tool, there is no such guarantee of expected outcomes either. And religion tends to deal far more in the messy, fuzzy, murkey realms which tend to lay beyond the tools of our current sciences.
But, to predictability offered by religious or mythic systems. Again here, I want to stress and differentiate this from Spirituality, which is all-encompassing of all systems of belief, from rudimentary magic, mythic, traditionalist, rationalist, transrational, with both theism and atheism. Spirituality is not a system of beliefs. Systems of belief are attempts to talk about and describe spirituality.
As far as mythic systems, which were were talking about to begin with before we introduced spirituality into this, they are functional systems in that people utilize a certain preditiblity from them. If they didn't have that, they would be non-functional, and would be abandoned in search of another system which did.
What really is the determining factor is the system's viability within a particular environment. Think of these things in terms of evolution, where changing environmental pressures lead to modifications and adjustments, and a new stable system emerges to fill the niche. It's the same thing with belief systems and modes of thinking as well.
I'll try to explain better and build on that as I continue to respond....
If "God" is the force you accept behind crop growth, then when the crops fail (possibly due to your own negligence!) by what measure can you "try to do better?" When you expect and assume that a God had its hand in it, you might feel completely helpless to affect the outcome, and accept "God's judgment" and God's action as "just the way it is." And this is a huge failing, no matter when the time it is/was done, and no matter the presuppositions that existed within your society.
That is one example which can test the faith one has in that system of thought. So is someone dying when a drug was supposed to make them get better. And related to that, so is believing the weather man's forecast for sun and it rains instead. As pointed out earlier, when we move beyond rocks and chemicals and all the lower level bits, things get increasingly more messy and fuzzy, and attempts to fix handles on these things so we can securely grasp them is a type of self-delusion we can easily fall into. The rational mind, "want's answers".
So within the mythic system, the answer to unpredictable is built into it to help to keep the system consistent as a way to understand and cope with the messiness of reality. "God has a plan that you as a human can't understand. Have faith all will be well". You see how that as a system offers a functional framework?
It's not all about predictability. It can't be in the world of science either. It can't be in life, because life is far beyond being predictable to that point. Why would we want it to be? How boring that would be. Like watching the same episode of Gilligan's Island everyday for your whole life. Nothing in it would be a surprise.
So the mythic system we are discussing at the moment, has predictability built into to it. It may not be as robust as modern science, and that's fine. That's evolution. That's growth. That's development. If let's for comparison sake say that the mythic system of religion (not all religion is mythic), is on an evolutionary scale like Cro Magnon man, and Modernity with its modern empirical sciences is like modern man. This does not mean that the Cro Magnon man is an evolutionary mistake, because it's not modern man.
Maybe an easier analogy is that of ages. Mythic religion is like an 8 year old, and modern science is like a 14 year old. Being 8 is fully functional, but limited in what it can do and understand because it has not developed the capacities that a 14 year has by comparison. Being 8 is not a broken 14 year old. Being 8 is developmentally necessary in order to build up the 8 year old's capacities that remain and become part of the 14 year old. The 14 year old owes its 14 year'ness to the 8 year old. It should thank the 8 year old, rather than being an underdeveloped child and image that who he was an 8 year old was "stupid", because he imagines today that he's so much smarter, and has all this stuff pretty much figured out now.
Systems like these will evolve when the necessity of greater explanatory powers, predictibilies, and not to forgot, overall depth, becomes a requirement of the environmental pressures. Moving into the ages of mass communications, beginning with the first printing press, puts a strain on greater requirments for the sytems to attempt to address.
Historically what happened is the Church, instead of evolving it's system to attempt to speak to that newly emerging reality of modernity, doubled-down its efforts to promote and preserve the mythic system. And modern science blew right past them, outside of being underneath the umbrella of the Church. The Church in its efforts to halt evolution, resulted in the splintering apart of the three main areas of human knowledge, science, art, and morality. (refer to Kant's 3 critiques).
Today we have no cohesive system that ties all 3 of these domains of human reality together. And this is where modern atheism is running amok, trying to get rid of the mythic God, but losing any chosive system to turn to as a replacement. That is why I believe mythic-style religion remains pervasives. There really isn't anything else to replace it as a whole. It becomes a bit of a cafeteria style system in the meantime until one possibly emerges through syncretism that might finally replace the mythic-style religion.
I could go deep diving into these thoughts more, but I'll leave it there for the moment. Hopefully this is making sense to you. I live, eat, breathe, and sleep this stuff.
I guess my point is, the things we've learned over time in various spheres of knowledge, were only ever there to be discovered and understood, AT ALL TIMES. And it was most decidedly "religious" or "dogmatic" thinking that slowed or halted the progress toward gaining that understanding.
We're kind of saying the same thing in what I just finished saying a moment ago, but with one particular difference worth noting for us.
"At all times". This gets into some murky waters, but I hope you're enjoying going into these with me. It seems like you do, and that makes me happy. Let's get messy!
Part of this messiness is the recognition that what we assume we are seeing using the tools we devised to help us see these, including systems of thought and science, is not actually seeing actual reality, but a model of reality devised by the human creative mind, with all of its subjectivities in tow. It does not mean what it discovers is "rubbish". Not at all. It has certain utility that makes it a good, functional system of thought that can be applied in more reliable ways than previous systems could offer based on their natures.
The view of reality we have today, through modern sciences, is brilliant! It takes us deeper and deeper into the Mystery of Creation. I capitalize those for a reason, because I view all of it, from the particulars to the whole as brilliantly beyond what our best sciences of today can hope to penetrate or comprehend. Systems within systems of systems, infinitely interconnected as a living, breathing, evolving whole. And not just the exteriors of the world of matter, but of the interior domains of the subjective self. It is beyond comprehension, but not beyond our apprehension with our lived, conscious, being. I digress...
So part of that realization is addressed in postmodernist philosophy with a term, the Myth of the Pregiven World. It is recognized that nature is not just "laying around waiting for us to discover it". The belief that it is is mythological in nature. It's an assumption of faith. The sciences don't work that way, and nature isn't like that either. Once you move beyond a basic Modernist, Newtowian linear reality into the domains of the quantum and nonlinear, it becomes apparent what a slanted, lopsided view of reality we are dealing with when approaching reality with that linear paradigm. It's a myopic view of self and reality.
In other words, just like mythic religion had to open to advancing knowledge, but failed to, so too our current systems of investigation into the natural world needs to open, and it is starting to somewhat. And this does not mean you can now just use some anything-goes, New Age pseudo-paradigm approaches. It has to have some rigor and reach for it to be useful. Today, we already have the accepted Complexity Sciences, with systems theories and the like.
This is just how the Universe keeps things evolving, building one success on top of an earlier success. It keeps going. It's impossible to fully grasp what we are seeing, or think we know about it.
I'll take a breather here from that attempt at a bit of a mind dump. Again, I hope you may find some thought in there you appreciate, or that you wish to discuss differences or questions over.