Statistical math and science deal in this dichotomy of potential and actual. Nothing has the odds 0 or 1, fully potential or fully actual, but rather it assumes both exists; >0 and <1. This is not a good way to do rational science since half formed things, like fuzzy dice, leave too much room for the imagination and poor graphing. It makes con jobs easier by allowing more angles.
If you were doing a statistical experiment, you place the phenomena in the figurative black box; Schrödinger's cat. We leave the box closed; start with no theory. We input things and measure the output. The problem is since the cat is both alive and dead, how do we know whichcat is involved in the output or not? A rational theory already knows since it will open the box and can see the cat, and therefore can make predictions, since it knows what to expect. The black box is not so certain. We have margins of error and levels of certainty and do not know either way. We draw the best curve through the data and then try to formulate a theory, with the box still closed. This gives us hope since our theory is both dead and alive so it cannot be dismissed either way.
One data point out of place with a rational theory will need revision. Half the data out of place in a statistical theory gets to linger. Not all science is created equal.
Take the theory of Evolution, which based on black box science. It cannot be used to make accurate future predictions. We can catalog the past and see pattern of change, but the mechanism that could allow us to make future predictions is still inside the black box, stuck somewhere between potential and actual. This is where the debate between reason and Schrödinger's cat come in. Many see the potential realized, based on how many people it employs. Why would we I invest so much into it, if it was not useful? While those who do not see the future predictive value, sense it is short of actual; not the final rational version but not still a black box stepping stone.
This is why marketing, sales, polling, politics, focus groups, and even gaming and gambling all use this same math. Nothing is 100% guaranteed and anything can be inflated. This may not be in the best interest of science even if it creates assembly line jobs. Politics and science need to be separate which is hard to do with they share the same math and politics can use that to game the system; Schrödinger's cat.
The DNC is keeping Harris in a black box; Schrödinger's cat, with level and certainty and margin of error. Reason is suspended and it comes down to feeling, one way or the other. Fake new will then put its finger on the scales. This can also occurs in black box science.
As a side note connected to the discussion of potential energy;
Free energy is defined by the equation G=H-TS, where G is total free energy, H is enthalpy or internal energy like the energy in gasoline, or deuterium, T is temperature in degree K, S is entropy which is a measure of complexity.
The second law states that the entropy of the universe has to increase, which implies as S gets larger, the -TS term causes the universal free energy to lower. While energy conservation says this energy has to be conserved. However, since universal entropy has to increase over time, is that energy, lost to entropy, negative potential energy?
We can get that entropic energy back, in part, but it always cost more energy to do that, than we will get back. There is no such thing as perpetual motion. We cannot use a machine to get a wash like most versions of conserved energy. The machines needed to reverse entropy always lose more energy they get back; no perpetual motion. Entropy is an odd duck when it comes to potential energy, being more like a source of negative potential energy. It is not meant to be reversed, spontaneously, since it has to increase over time.
What is interesting is life and consciousness are both deigned to reverse entropy, sort of damming up the second law. When S gets lower, that makes the -TS term see a double negative, therefore this adds free energy to the organic matrix, that is then subject to an entropy increase. Life sort of sort of uses the principle of no perpetual motion, which loses more energy than it get back. Life makes things less complex, which causes the 2nd law to become even more complex, since there is no perpetual motion; evolution. Negative potential energy is part of life and forward change and catalysis.
