• Welcome to Religious Forums, a friendly forum to discuss all religions in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Our modern chat room. No add-ons or extensions required, just login and start chatting!
    • Access to private conversations with other members.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

Civil War 2.0

Father Heathen

Veteran Member
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?
 

Debater Slayer

Vipassana
Staff member
Premium Member
The US is a fully functional state with powerful judicial, economic, military, and law-enforcement apparatuses. The idea that it would just descend into civil war without a long, gradual process of deterioration (that would probably take a decade or more) strikes me as hyperbolic.

A cursory glance at the factors that led to civil wars in countries like the Congo, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Syria, and Iraq should give an approximation of just how profound, chaotic, and long-term the buildup to a civil war tends to be. I think many of the Republicans and Democrats who warn of a civil war over the next election or over a similarly imminent event probably need to broaden their perspectives by reading more about the history of countries other than the US.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?

A lot like the 90s, but turned up to 11:
  • The militia movement ramps up.
  • There are isolated attacks like the Michigan governor kidnapping (although not always foiled).
  • Authorities track down perpetrators - some after the attacks, some in the planning stages.
  • When trying to arrest the perps, we end up with Ruby Ridge and Mayerthorpe-type incidents.
  • These incidents generate their own reprisals like the Oklahoma City bombing.
  • Those reprisals lead to more arrests.
  • Those arrests lead to more reprisal attacks.
  • The cycle repeats until something changes the dynamic... though hopefully not another 9/11 this time.
 

Heyo

Veteran Member
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?
Just like it is now, only exaggerated. Blue and red states will disagree about some policies to the point where reconciliation becomes impossible. One side or the other will not accept an Executive Order or Supreme Court decision. Or it will be about the result of an election, and this time it will not only lead to voicing the non-acceptance but with actions more coordinate than the last insurrection attempt.
States will declare their session.
And as the points of contempt are so many and complex, the reason given will be some minor point, like on which side to open an egg.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?

It might be more of a kind of subtle "cold war" between states and political factions, as state and local governments may exert control in their own jurisdictions in their own peculiar ways. Some jurisdictions may push constitutional limits. Possibly more crazy sheriffs like Joe Arpaio. States like Florida and Texas and a few others seem to be going in strange directions. It could be more of a legal or procedural civil war - which wouldn't be a shooting war, but just a lot of lawsuits and legal battles between states and the federal government.

There might be further problems between federal and state law enforcement, such as recently seen in Texas. Not necessarily a war, but more friction. I would speculate just continue to see more of what we've already been seeing. Ultimately, I think the overall strength of the military would prevent the rise of any other faction from gaining enough strength to overcome that. However, if it ever did come to that, it would reduce the military's effectiveness and ability to engage in overseas operations, if the US military was forced to utilize manpower and resources to maintain law and order at home.
 

Regiomontanus

Eastern Orthodox
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?

There has been a lot of hype around this (since Trump). We are divided, but not as much as many people think, IMHO. Based on a small, biased sample (two farmers whose properties border one of mine), this is more talk than anything. I don't agree with them on many, many issues - and they talk about a civil war, blah blah blah often - but they are not going to take up arms against their neighbors. We have much more in common with the 'other' than the media wants us to believe! Politicians want to divide us.
 

Secret Chief

Veteran Member
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?
Given the previous shenanigans over election results my immediate concern would be the announcement of the result, because let's face it, whatever result is announced it won't likely be accepted calmly by the whole populace.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
There has been a lot of talk about a potential "civil war" resulting from the political and cultural divide in the U.S.

How do people envision this actually unfolding and playing out, realistically?
That would require full state support with their militias as well as the support of the populations living in those states.

Realistically I think it's unlikely, but the possibility is very real.
 

LuisDantas

Aura of atheification
Premium Member
Sooner or later at least one of the crazier states such as Texas and Florida will push things too far, with either the support, the disdain or the active opposition of the POTUS, House and Senate of the day. It is a matter of having too many whackos and too few politically and ideologically sane minds living in close proximity.

Once the crazies roost in sufficiently strong numbers, the ellected officers will reflect their composition and increasingly stronger measures will have to be used to keep some modicum of sanity and functionality. Eventually the people themselves will either embrace the crazy to the point that the sane ones will just leave, or some form of tragedy will happen and hopefully bring enough people to their senses.

Best case scenario, one of those states pulls a Brexit of sorts and convinces enough people both nationally and locally that it is for the best to formally secede, unthinkable as that may feel for many at this time. The end result will be a lot of expensive, slow litigation and quite a bit of exodus from crazyland. The economic situation will unavoidably deteriorate there, as will the political discourse. It will have its run-in with fascism and learn the bitter lessons that come from its eclosion, albeit at a very high price. People will speak of that cautionary tale for at least forty years after fascism deplets itself. The other states will learn from that as much as they truly want to, and some pockets of daring political awareness and innovation may well develop somewhere in the USA. If we are all lucky, at some point during that daytime nightmare it will be noticed that the USA are suffering from their own mythology and it is time for meaningful change in both system and myth. Some form of Parlamentarism may well arise. The frequency and intensity of verbal ideological clashes will have to intensify considerably from the current level before it can find some form of resolution, which will no doubt be painful.

All that hatred given so much free reign has been harming the possibilities of the USA and it will continue to for decades to come. It may easily never regain the global influence and respect that it once had. I estimate that it will be some twenty to thirty years before it fully realizes that it has lost its way. Some measure of brain migration to Canada is bound to happen. During those forty years or so a lot of effort will be put into spin and optics, because human nature is just like that.

I don't expect a civil war as such, but rather a lot of political and economic stagnation and hardship as the disease runs its course through the political and ideological tissue of the USA. House and Senate will probably become quite the circus for many years to come. The GOP will... I guess it will just keep reeking and putrefating. It has incredible skill at doing that and there is no reason to expect that it will stop any time soon.
 

Vinayaka

devotee
Premium Member
Americans, in your estimation, what is the percentage of people on the fence, or capable of switching parties? Is it less than 5%? Less that 1%?
 
Top