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Down with Electoral College, Up with People

Nous

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
The method of electing the US President by a body of electors acting on behalf of each state was primarily motivated by the 1787 Convention delegates’ lack of trust that the general population of voters would be adequately informed of federal issues to elect a capable President. In the absence of political parties at the time to channel support, the field of candidates was wide open, and delegates expressed concern that voters would only vote for candidates from their own states, with no candidate securing a majority. Fixing the number of a state’s electors as the total of a state’s Congress members gave an obvious advantage to slave states, whose slaves were counted as three-fifths of a person for representation purposes. The record seems to be unclear as to whether this advantage for slave states in the Electoral College was intended or inadvertent.

In any case, today we do not face the supposed problems that were intended to be solved by electing the President by the Electoral College. Instead, this method of electing the President is itself the source of several troubling problems. To date, it has resulted in 1 out of 14 winners of the office who did not win the majority vote. Worse, it induces voter apathy in states where the state’s winner is easily predictable, which is the case in the majority of states these days. This, to my mind, is the most pernicious effect of the Electoral College system--a person who knows that his/her vote for President will not count is a person who is, for all practical purposes, deprived of a vote. In contrast, in those states where the outcome of the race is uncertain (“battleground states”), higher percentages of voters are inspired to vote. Additionally, the Electoral College system ensures that candidates spend almost all their time, attention and money trying to appeal to voters in those few states where the race is close, rather than mounting a national campaign and attending to broader swath of issues.

For more than 80 years now, surveys have consistently shown that the majority of Americans support election of the President by national popular vote. But amending the Constitution requires a great deal of momentum, which, obviously, few issues muster.

Several years ago was founded an organization, National Popular Vote, for the purpose of implementing the proposal of law professors Akhil and Vikram Amar to skirt the Constitutional provision of the Electoral College. It’s such a simple idea it’s confounding that no one thought of it before. The Amar brothers proposed that states could act in concert by way of a compact, which has now become the National Popular Vote Compact (NPVC), which states legislatively adopt, wherein each state agrees to pledge its electoral votes to the Presidential candidate who receives the most votes nationwide. This solves--or will solve--every problem the Electoral College system creates. The NPVC is to take effect and become binding only when adopted by enough states for which the total electoral votes constitutes a majority (i.e., 270 of the 538 electoral votes). So far, 10 states and DC have adopted the compact, possessing a total of 165 electoral votes--61% of the total needed to activate the compact: http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/index.php

Article I, Section 10, Clause 3 of the US Constitution:

"No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay." http://constitutionus.com/

So, is the NPVC prohibited by the Constitution? There isn’t a good argument that it is. States may enter into compacts with each other on matters that are within the purview of states’ powers, and the Court held in McPherson v. Blacker (1892) that the Constitution gives Congress specifically limited authority over the matter of states choosing their electors--limited to the number of a state’s electors, the ineligibility of certain persons, the time of choosing electors, and the day on which they cast their votes. All other issues relating to presidential electors are the exclusive province of states.

Currently there exists a variety of compacts between states; every state has entered into and participates in multiple interstate compacts. Congressional consent of a compact is not required prior to states enacting the compact, and Congressional consent may be express or implied, according to Virginia v. Tennessee (1893). The National Popular Vote website addresses the issues of constitutionality more thoroughly: http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages/answers/section.php?s=16

Note the broad bipartisan support of the NPVC. (Of course, this fact will only horrify partisans.)

So, are you up or down on the NPVC? Is there any good reason to retain the Electoral College system of electing the President? (Almost everyone who voted for the candidate who won the national popular vote hates the Electoral College system when that candidate doesn’t win the majority of electoral votes.) Does the Electoral College system solve any problem? One can note that no other country perceives that there is any problem with electing its chief executive by popular vote.
 

George-ananda

Advaita Vedanta, Theosophy, Spiritualism
Premium Member
Down with the electoral college. Candidates overly focus on swing states now. The electoral college is a throwback to a time when states were viewed with more independence.

It seems that almost everyone is down with the college but I never see the momentum to change this. It gets lost on a distant burner to bigger fish.
 

BSM1

What? Me worry?
Love it or hate it the electoral college is probably one the most intelligent and far-seeing device ever devised for electing a country's leader. If the election hinged entirely on the popular vote then two disturbing scenarios come to mind. One, a candidate would only have to win a few of the most populous states, This candidate could promise these particular states anything (such as no or reduced taxes, juicy government projects, or free vacations for everyone in the state to Disneyworld), and if the candidate has supporters with deep pockets all the campaign money could be spent just in these states. This could allow a major sleaze to move into the White House with very little opposition. This brings up the second scenario. Supposing the candidate was a very charismatic, blatant White Supremacist, or a religioso of any stripe calling for the establishment of a theocracy. This candidate could conceivably win by one vote. Flooding the polls with his, or her, peeps could give him the winning ticket. The Electoral College has never change a popular election result since the Founding Fathers, in their wisdom, established it, at least not to my knowledge. Thank goodness it's there if needed.
 

YmirGF

Bodhisattva in Recovery
Love it or hate it the electoral college is probably one the most intelligent and far-seeing device ever devised for electing a country's leader. If the election hinged entirely on the popular vote then two disturbing scenarios come to mind. One, a candidate would only have to win a few of the most populous states, This candidate could promise these particular states anything (such as no or reduced taxes, juicy government projects, or free vacations for everyone in the state to Disneyworld), and if the candidate has supporters with deep pockets all the campaign money could be spent just in these states. This could allow a major sleaze to move into the White House with very little opposition. This brings up the second scenario. Supposing the candidate was a very charismatic, blatant White Supremacist, or a religioso of any stripe calling for the establishment of a theocracy. This candidate could conceivably win by one vote. Flooding the polls with his, or her, peeps could give him the winning ticket. The Electoral College has never change a popular election result since the Founding Fathers, in their wisdom, established it, at least not to my knowledge. Thank goodness it's there if needed.
An excellent post, BSM1, besides which getting the groundswell of support needed to get rid of the electoral college is near on impossible. It's certainly not going to happen anytime soon.... if at all.
 

Laika

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
The popular vote has only not been reflected in electoral college results four times. [The Bold is the one who got elected] 1824 (Adams vs. Jackson), 1876 (Hayes vs. Tilden),1888 (Harrison vs. Cleveland) and 2000 (Bush vs. Gore). 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) was also incredibly close by about 100,000 votes but the electoral college did let Kennedy in with the popular vote.
I can think of worse things than keeping it, but I would obviously have preferred if Al Gore has won in 2000. The fact that the US president is not elected directly by the people, but has to go through the electoral college, represents a much "older" set of values where the people were considered a threat before Universal suffrage. Perhaps more importantly, was that the 2000 result was decided by the Supreme court and not the electorate and in that sense could well be characterised as a "coup" denying people the vote. So yeah, this is a good idea.
 

BSM1

What? Me worry?
The popular vote has only not been reflected in electoral college results four times. [The Bold is the one who got elected] 1824 (Adams vs. Jackson), 1876 (Hayes vs. Tilden),1888 (Harrison vs. Cleveland) and 2000 (Bush vs. Gore). 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) was also incredibly close by about 100,000 votes but the electoral college did let Kennedy in with the popular vote.
I can think of worse things than keeping it, but I would obviously have preferred if Al Gore has won in 2000. The fact that the US president is not elected directly by the people, but has to go through the electoral college, represents a much "older" set of values where the people were considered a threat before Universal suffrage. Perhaps more importantly, was that the 2000 result was decided by the Supreme court and not the electorate and in that sense could well be characterised as a "coup" denying people the vote. So yeah, this is a good idea.

Might want to re-check your examples, at least in the Kennedy/Nixon case. Kennedy did win the majority of votes although Nixon won more states. The EC did what it was meant to do.
 

Nietzsche

The Last Prussian
Premium Member
The EC is without question the only thing that has kept this country from going down the path of radicalism. During the upheavals of the late 19th to mid-20th century, it kept both revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces from gaining a stranglehold on politics, while also more or less killing Populism in the cradle in this country. I mean, the Populism on display now is wretched enough, can you imagine what it be like without the EC? No. Just..no. I'd rather take a bath in bleach & broken glass.

The EC also gives the wee'st of states a voice. Alaska, Hawaii, ect all have electoral votes far in excess of their voting populations. But it means their voices do matter, however small they are.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
The EC is without question the only thing that has kept this country from going down the path of radicalism. During the upheavals of the late 19th to mid-20th century, it kept both revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces from gaining a stranglehold on politics, while also more or less killing Populism in the cradle in this country. I mean, the Populism on display now is wretched enough, can you imagine what it be like without the EC? No. Just..no. I'd rather take a bath in bleach & broken glass.

The EC also gives the wee'st of states a voice. Alaska, Hawaii, ect all have electoral votes far in excess of their voting populations. But it means their voices do matter, however small they are.
On the other hand, those of us in more populous states have less of a voice.
Moreover, in winner take all states like MI, my vote makes even less of a difference.
All EC votes go to whomever the Democrat is.
 

Nietzsche

The Last Prussian
Premium Member
On the other hand, those of us in more populous states have less of a voice.
Moreover, in winner take all states like MI, my vote makes even less of a difference.
All EC votes go to whomever the Democrat is.
Yes, I would imagine your vote is indeed trumped by the EC. But imagine a purely popular-vote. The only states of importance would be California, Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Florida & New Jersey. You campaign there and you win.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Yes, I would imagine your vote is indeed trumped by the EC. But imagine a purely popular-vote. The only states of importance would be California, Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Florida & New Jersey. You campaign there and you win.
I believe it would be more complex than that, depending upon where the most votes are getable for a given amount of resources spent.
This would change from election to election.
But do I really care if Rhode Island has a big voice?
Nah!
Besides, Michiganistan can be generally ignored because the vote is a foregone result.
 

Underhill

Well-Known Member
Yes, I would imagine your vote is indeed trumped by the EC. But imagine a purely popular-vote. The only states of importance would be California, Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Florida & New Jersey. You campaign there and you win.

I don't see the current situation as any different. Except that now they only campaign in the swing states. Any state with more than a 60% majority is ignored, which is most of them.
 

Nietzsche

The Last Prussian
Premium Member
I don't see the current situation as any different. Except that now they only campaign in the swing states. Any state with more than a 60% majority is ignored, which is most of them.
Still more states than they'd campaign in without the EC.
 

totototo

Member
Yes, I would imagine your vote is indeed trumped by the EC. But imagine a purely popular-vote. The only states of importance would be California, Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Florida & New Jersey. You campaign there and you win.

With the current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), it could only take winning a bare plurality of popular votes in only the 11 most populous states, containing 56% of the population of the United States, for a candidate to win the Presidency with a mere 23% of the nation's votes!

But the political reality is that the 11 largest states, with a majority of the U.S. population, rarely agree on any political question. In terms of recent presidential elections, the 11 largest states have included five "red states (Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia) and six "blue" states (California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey). The fact is that the big states are just about as closely divided as the rest of the country. For example, among the four largest states, the two largest Republican states (Texas and Florida) generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Bush, while the two largest Democratic states generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Kerry.

In 2004, among the 11 most populous states, in the seven non-battleground states, % of winning party, and margin of “wasted” popular votes, from among the total 122 Million votes cast nationally:
* Texas (62% Republican), 1,691,267
* New York (59% Democratic), 1,192,436
* Georgia (58% Republican), 544,634
* North Carolina (56% Republican), 426,778
* California (55% Democratic), 1,023,560
* Illinois (55% Democratic), 513,342
* New Jersey (53% Democratic), 211,826

To put these numbers in perspective,
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes) generated a margin of 455,000 "wasted" votes for Bush in 2004 -- larger than the margin generated by the 9th and 10th largest states, namely New Jersey and North Carolina (each with 15 electoral votes).
Utah (5 electoral votes) generated a margin of 385,000 "wasted" votes for Bush in 2004.
8 small western states, with less than a third of California’s population, provided Bush with a bigger margin (1,283,076) than California provided Kerry (1,235,659).
 

totototo

Member
The EC is without question the only thing that has kept this country from going down the path of radicalism. During the upheavals of the late 19th to mid-20th century, it kept both revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces from gaining a stranglehold on politics, while also more or less killing Populism in the cradle in this country. I mean, the Populism on display now is wretched enough, can you imagine what it be like without the EC? No. Just..no. I'd rather take a bath in bleach & broken glass.

The EC also gives the wee'st of states a voice. Alaska, Hawaii, ect all have electoral votes far in excess of their voting populations. But it means their voices do matter, however small they are.

The EC is without question NOT the only thing that has kept this country from going down the path of radicalism.
Extremist candidacies as Strom Thurmond and George Wallace won a substantial number of electoral votes in numerous states.

Support for a national popular vote is strong in every smallest state surveyed in recent polls among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group

Among the 13 lowest population states, the National Popular Vote bill has passed in 9 state legislative chambers, and been enacted by 4 jurisdictions, including Hawaii.

In the 25 smallest states in 2008, the Democratic and Republican popular vote was almost tied (9.9 million versus 9.8 million), as was the electoral vote (57 versus 58).

In 2012, 24 of the nation's 27 smallest states received no attention at all from presidential campaigns after the conventions after Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee on April 11. They were ignored despite their supposed numerical advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the 8.6 million eligible voters in Ohio received more campaign ads and campaign visits from the major party campaigns than the 42 million eligible voters in those 27 smallest states combined.

The 12 smallest states are totally ignored in presidential elections. These states are not ignored because they are small, but because they are not closely divided “battleground” states.

Now with state-by-state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), presidential elections ignore 12 of the 13 lowest population states (3-4 electoral votes), that are non-competitive in presidential elections. 6 regularly vote Republican (AK, ID, MT, WY, ND, and SD), and 6 regularly vote Democratic (RI, DE, HI, VT, ME, and DC) in presidential elections.

Similarly, the 25 smallest states have been almost equally noncompetitive. They voted Republican or Democratic 12-13 in 2008 and 2012.

Voters in states that are reliably red or blue don't matter. Candidates ignore those states and the issues they care about most.
 

totototo

Member
Because of the state-by-state winner-take-all electoral votes laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) in 48 states, a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in 4 of the nation's 57 (1 in 14 = 7%) presidential elections. The precariousness of the current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes is highlighted by the fact that a shift of a few thousand voters in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 7 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012). 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore's lead of 537,179 (1,000 times more) popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 voters in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 million votes.

After the 2012 election, Nate Silver calculated that "Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College."

In 2012, more than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested on voters in just the then only ten competitive states. 38 states were politically irrelevant.There are only expected to be 7 remaining swing states in 2016.

Issues of importance to non-battleground states are of so little interest to presidential candidates that they don’t even bother to poll them.

Over 87% of both Romney and Obama campaign offices were in just the then 12 swing states. The few campaign offices in the 38 remaining states were for fund-raising, volunteer phone calls, and arranging travel to battleground states.

Policies important to the citizens of non-battleground states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

“Battleground” states receive 7% more federal grants than “spectator” states, twice as many presidential disaster declarations, more Superfund enforcement exemptions, and more No Child Left Behind law exemptions.
 

totototo

Member
The presidential election system, using the 48 state winner-take-all method or district winner method of awarding electoral votes used by 2 states, that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers. It is the product of decades of change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by states of winner-take-all or district winner laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.

Presidential elections don't have to continue to be about a narrowly focused barrage of attention by the media, candidates, pollsters, strategists, organizers, and commercials in the handful of unrepresentative swing states that dominate and determine the general election, while most of the country is politically irrelevant.

To abolish the Electoral College would need a constitutional amendment, and could be stopped by states with as little as 3% of the U.S. population.

Instead, by state laws, without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes, the National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80%+ of the states that have just been 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided).

Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in every state surveyed recently. In the 41 red, blue, and purple states surveyed, overall support has been in the 67-81% range -in rural states, in small states, in Southern and border states, in big states, and in other states polled.
Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

The National Popular Vote bill would take effect when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.

The bill has passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 250 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
 

BSM1

What? Me worry?
The EC is without question NOT the only thing that has kept this country from going down the path of radicalism.
Extremist candidacies as Strom Thurmond and George Wallace won a substantial number of electoral votes in numerous states.

Support for a national popular vote is strong in every smallest state surveyed in recent polls among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group

Among the 13 lowest population states, the National Popular Vote bill has passed in 9 state legislative chambers, and been enacted by 4 jurisdictions, including Hawaii.

In the 25 smallest states in 2008, the Democratic and Republican popular vote was almost tied (9.9 million versus 9.8 million), as was the electoral vote (57 versus 58).

In 2012, 24 of the nation's 27 smallest states received no attention at all from presidential campaigns after the conventions after Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee on April 11. They were ignored despite their supposed numerical advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the 8.6 million eligible voters in Ohio received more campaign ads and campaign visits from the major party campaigns than the 42 million eligible voters in those 27 smallest states combined.

The 12 smallest states are totally ignored in presidential elections. These states are not ignored because they are small, but because they are not closely divided “battleground” states.

Now with state-by-state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), presidential elections ignore 12 of the 13 lowest population states (3-4 electoral votes), that are non-competitive in presidential elections. 6 regularly vote Republican (AK, ID, MT, WY, ND, and SD), and 6 regularly vote Democratic (RI, DE, HI, VT, ME, and DC) in presidential elections.

Similarly, the 25 smallest states have been almost equally noncompetitive. They voted Republican or Democratic 12-13 in 2008 and 2012.

Voters in states that are reliably red or blue don't matter. Candidates ignore those states and the issues they care about most.

The EC does not have to vote with their state's results. If such an extremist were about to take over the presidency then the EC could vote against him and he would not be elected. This is the beauty of the EC.
 
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