Elective Disease

[We Never Know]

I can say for sure that the unvaxed people I know
knew who died will not be coming back to life.
The vaccinated people I know are all doing fine.
This is known.
This thread is about the reality we see.
Not the worst case you imagine.

And I can say both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated people I know that's died won't be coming back.

 

[Quetzal]

And I can say both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated people I know that's died won't be coming back.

It has been statistically proven that the rate of death for a vaccinated person due to COVID complications is considerably lower than those who aren't.

 

[Debater Slayer]

At the same time being unvaccinated he is roughly 99.6% protected against dying from covid.

There are a few issues with this:

1) The average fatality rate of COVID is far higher than 0.4% in most countries, and in the countries where it is that low, it is often the case that the majority of the population are vaccinated. Even then, you can't generalize the average fatality rate, which includes younger and healthier people, to everyone who gets COVID given that they may be elderly or have risk factors/pre-existing conditions.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

2) The average Joe in your example may have multiple times that probability of death if he has pre-existing conditions or risk factors such as being elderly.

3) Death isn't the only problem resulting from COVID. Someone can still get very sick and take up an ICU bed or a ventilator even if they don't end up dying, and if we're talking about health risks as well, the person can also end up having long COVID and dealing with lingering symptoms for months or even a year or more after recovering from the infection.

 

[We Never Know]

If we want to get into the weeds here, we need to be specific about which countries, the paths taken, and what the various mandates are. That is not something I am interested in doing tonight.

Lets take omincron and most other variants found first in other countries, they were brought to the US by travelers. There are mandates about travelers but evidently even the vaccine doesn't stop the spread of variants from country to country.

 

[Quetzal]

...evidently even the vaccine doesn't stop the spread of variants from country to country.

Correct and the reason for that is not everyone is vaccinated. Let me ask you this. If everyone was vaccinated, would we even have that variant at all?

 

[We Never Know]

There are a few issues with this:

1) The average fatality rate of COVID is far higher than 0.4% in most countries, and in the countries where it is that low, it is often the case that the majority of the population are vaccinated. Even then, you can't generalize the average fatality rate, which includes younger and healthier people, to everyone who gets COVID given that they may be elderly or have risk factors/pre-existing conditions.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

2) The average Joe in your example may have multiple times that probability of death if he has pre-existing conditions or risk factors such as being elderly.

3) Death isn't the only problem resulting from COVID. Someone can still get very sick and take up an ICU bed or a ventilator even if they don't end up dying, and if we're talking about health risks as well, the person can also end up having long COVID and dealing with lingering symptoms for months or even a year or more after recovering from the infection.

I took those numbers from another site. But after researching...

254.5. million cases ÷ by 7.9 billion population = 3.2% have caught it.

5.1 million ÷ 254.5 million = have died 2% have died.

In average its a 97% that a person won't get it and 98% that a person won't die from it.

 

[We Never Know]

Correct and the reason for that is not everyone is vaccinated. Let me ask you this. If everyone was vaccinated, would we even have that variant at all?

I don't know. Same as you don't know if we wouldn't.

 

[Quetzal]

254.5. million cases ÷ by 7.9 billion population = 3.2% have caught it.

5.1 million ÷ 254.5 million = have died 2% have died.

In average its a 97% that a person won't get it and 98% that a person won't die from it.

This is not how statistics work.

 

[Quetzal]

I don't know. Same as you don't know if we wouldn't.

I think you know what the hypothetical answer would be, its just uncomfortable to talk about.

 

[We Never Know]

I think you know what the hypothetical answer would be, its just uncomfortable to talk about.

Are we back to hypothetical again?

 

[We Never Know]

This is not how statistics work.

Point out and explain my errors.

"254.5. million cases ÷ by 7.9 billion population = 3.2% have caught it.

5.1 million ÷ 254.5 million = have died 2% have died.

In average its a 97% that a person won't get it and 98% that a person won't die from it."

 

[Quetzal]

Point out and explain my errors.

"254.5. million cases ÷ by 7.9 billion population = 3.2% have caught it.

5.1 million ÷ 254.5 million = have died 2% have died.

In average its a 97% that a person won't get it and 98% that a person won't die from it."

I do not believe we are in position to make such a claim on a global scale. We have to take several factors into account including: geographic location, current vaccination % of the populace we are studying, current mandates in place, current restrictions in place, political landscape, vaccine availability, etc etc etc.

 

[We Never Know]

We have to take several factors into account including: geographic location, current vaccination % of the populace we are studying, current mandates in place, current restrictions in place, political landscape, vaccine availability, etc etc etc.

Prior health, diet, etc.
All in all those statistics are correct.

 

[Quetzal]

Are we back to hypothetical again?

I prefer that to the proposed pseudo-statistics.

 

[Quetzal]

Prior health, diet, etc.
All in all those statistics are correct.

I think my part in this discussion is over. Have a good night.

 

[We Never Know]

I think my part in this discussion is over. Have a good night.

Here are the current numbers of cases, deaths and recoveries. Good night.

Coronavirus Facts and Information thread:

 

[9-10ths_Penguin]

I have no answer to that, and I don't know whether there's ever a magic amount of information that can change people's minds. It may well depend on each person's situation and their background, too.

Furthermore, we have to keep in mind that in countries with corrupt governments or historically discriminatory practices, a lot of people don't feel safe trusting government recommendations or mandates. This is understandable, even if the recommendations about public health make sense in this situation.

There are many factors I would look at instead of deciding that anti-vaxxers don't deserve empathy when they die or become severely sick. I don't believe in free will either, which makes it much harder to lose empathy toward someone when they suffer or die due to a mistaken belief.

I have empathy for anyone at risk of dying from COVID. I also think that nobody should be denied life-saving medical care.

I think higher insurance premiums for anti-vaxxers are reasonable. Through their own choices, they're increasing risk to themselves and others. On average, they're going to cost the insurer more. Charging an anti-vaxxer higher premiums makes just as much sense as charging a smoker higher premiums.

Once they get COVID, though... not only is the disease a risk to them personally, but getting them medical care is an important part of preventing the spread of the pandemic.

Where I think someone's status as either an anti-vaxxer or COVID-positive should dictate care is in other areas: if an anti-vaxxer needs their hip replaced, for instance, I think that it's reasonable to have a conversation around factors like:

- is the risk that they'll pose to the medical staff doing the procedure reasonable?

- are they likely to have good enough health going forward to ensure a good outcome for the procedure?

 

[Wildswanderer]

Why not?

Why? Anyone can spread it.

 

[averageJOE]

In times of overwhelmed resources, prioritization is
inevitable. I favor the responsible over the irresponsible.

So then why just limit it to just unvaccinated people? There are a lot of people who end up in the hospital for different irresponsible actions.

 

[averageJOE]

I have empathy for anyone at risk of dying from COVID. I also think that nobody should be denied life-saving medical care.

I think higher insurance premiums for anti-vaxxers are reasonable. Through their own choices, they're increasing risk to themselves and others. On average, they're going to cost the insurer more. Charging an anti-vaxxer higher premiums makes just as much sense as charging a smoker higher premiums.

Once they get COVID, though... not only is the disease a risk to them personally, but getting them medical care is an important part of preventing the spread of the pandemic.

Where I think someone's status as either an anti-vaxxer or COVID-positive should dictate care is in other areas: if an anti-vaxxer needs their hip replaced, for instance, I think that it's reasonable to have a conversation around factors like:

- is the risk that they'll pose to the medical staff doing the procedure reasonable?

- are they likely to have good enough health going forward to ensure a good outcome for the procedure?

Is there a reason you call someone who is not vaccinated an "anti vaxxer"?