Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

[Mock Turtle]

'Jaw-dropping' world fertility rate crash expected

Anyone have any more information on this - since the projected line seems a bit odd?

But the implications are not so pleasant either.

 

[Polymath257]

A decrease in fertility rate has long been associated with the 'developed' world. The reason is that educated women and men tend to put off having children in favor of careers. But that tends to lead to smaller total numbers of children.

While this will lead to an 'inverted age structure' in many societies, I suspect that in the long run this is a GOOD THING. We really need to get population growth under control and get overall population down.

 

[Mock Turtle]

A decrease in fertility rate has long been associated with the 'developed' world. The reason is that educated women and men tend to put off having children in favor of careers. But that tends to lead to smaller total numbers of children.

While this will lead to an 'inverted age structure' in many societies, I suspect that in the long run this is a GOOD THING. We really need to get population growth under control and get overall population down.

Well I knew about the falling birth rate in many of the more industrialised countries but the graph still looks a bit odd.

 

[Revoltingest]

Fewer people = Good

 

[sun rise]

Odd as in the trend line slopes much more downward in the projected part of the graph? I wonder about that.

 

[Quintessence]

The problems associated with human overpopulation vastly outstrip those associated with an inverted age structure.

An inverted age structure is a problem for just one species - humans.

Human overpopulation, on the other hand, is a problem for the entire planet in that is the main driver behind a sixth mass extinction event. I just can't take any "oh no, human population decline bad" seriously compared to a sixth mass extinction event. I can't muster that level of painful anthropocentrism.

 

[Altfish]

It will have significant effects on pensions which rely on a growing population to fund them

 

[epronovost]

Fertility rate can go down without the number of children being born each year diminishing because of the way it's calculated. There is also the case of fertility lag and several otehr factors to play with it. The net reproduction rate is a more useful tool to see if population reach their replacement treshold, but it's not often used since it takes decades to be calculated. The main cause for lower fertility rate in the industrial world is women getting an education and getting financially established before having children and very low infant mortality. Idealy, you would want, on average, for all women to have two children over the course of their lives to maintain the population stable and avoid problems caused by exponential growth and decline.

 

[Sw. Vandana Jyothi]

Well I knew about the falling birth rate in many of the more industrialised countries but the graph still looks a bit odd.

Did you notice, though, that the graph isn't linear in years? The projected covers almost 100 years.

 

[Polymath257]

Well I knew about the falling birth rate in many of the more industrialised countries but the graph still looks a bit odd.

Well, the graph *is* odd.

That horizontal scale is anything but even and would serve to over-emphasize the decrease. In particular, 2050 would be well off the given chart, let alone 2100.

I'd use this as a good example of 'lying through graphs'.

 

[Mock Turtle]

Well, the graph *is* odd.

That horizontal scale is anything but even and would serve to over-emphasize the decrease. In particular, 2050 would be well off the given chart, let alone 2100.

I'd use this as a good example of 'lying through graphs'.

Did you notice, though, that the graph isn't linear in years? The projected covers almost 100 years.

Yes, I suppose it is amplified by this, but it still looks odd in that the trend could just level out, but if the study showed otherwise ...

 

[Polymath257]

Yes, I suppose it is amplified by this, but it still looks odd in that the trend could just level out, but if the study showed otherwise ...

Well, I see an overall decrease with a periodic addition with a period of about 30 years. So, there is a hump around 1950, 1980, and 2010. Bu the overall trend is still downward.

 

[Heyo]

I think the projection is very conservative. We are already depleting our food resources, especially fish. A sustainable population is, depending on environmental impact, at around 4 billion. Take global warming into account and we are unlikely to make it to 2100 with more than those 4 billion.

The arising problems are entirely social and political and are easy to tackle compared to global warming.

 

[Quintessence]

I think the projection is very conservative. We are already depleting our food resources, especially fish.

Distribution will be the issue more than the resources. There are simple, efficient alternatives.

Crickets, for example. There's a startup company in my area that specializes in this, and I've gotten to see some of their operations. It's extremely space efficient for the amount of nutrition it produces, and it produces on a quick time scale. Entomophagy isn't that uncommon historically, and like any food, it can be prepared in ways that are amazing. Crickets have become one of my favorite foods over the past couple years, the only downside being the cost; they are expensive to buy as food because there are no mass producers.

 

[Wandering Monk]

The population growth rate has been declining since about 1970: