Final Election Predictions

[doppelganger]

Okay, post your final predictions for tonight's election. Whoever gets closest in each of the following three categories gets a double frubal from me.

(1) Exact percentage of national popular vote for President.

(2) Total electoral vote for winning candidate.


My final predictions:

(1) Obama 52.6% to McCain 46.2%
(2) Obama with 363.

What's your guess?

 

[doppelganger]

Rove is predicting 338 EV for Obama, BTW.

 

[Napoleon]

Okay, post your final predictions for tonight's election. Whoever gets closest in each of the following three categories gets a double frubal from me.

(1) Exact percentage of national popular vote for President.

(2) Total electoral vote for winning candidate.


My final predictions:

(1) Obama 52.6% to McCain 46.2%
(2) Obama with 363.

What's your guess?

I'm not going to hazard a guess on the popular vote but I think the electoral vote will look something like this:

McCain: 274 and Obama: 264

Best of luck to both camps.

P.S. I waited in line for about an hour and a half this morning. There were more people than I expected at this hour but there were also twice as many voting machines than there were in 2004 AND there was free coffee.

 

[UnityNow101]

Obama:49.4%~~~McCain:43.7%~~~Other:6.9%{Nader:4.1%~~Barr:1.1%~~Baldwin:1%~~McKinney:0.5%~~Other:0.2%}

Electoral votes:Obama:325~~~McCain:213


If any of you would like, you can take this to the bank!

I voted at around 9:30 this morning and there was not much of a line at all, which was quite surprising to me...

 

[tomspug]

Obama 291, McCain 247

I don't think Obama will win either Florida or Ohio.

I also think that McCain will win the popular vote: McCain 50.7%, Obama 48.6%, Other .7%

 

[Mathematician]

Obama: 367 EV
McCain: 171 EV
Blow out

Obama: 52% McCain: 43%
(Nader, then Barr, then Greens)

Senate: 60 Dems
House: 251 Dems

As Pat Buchanan put it, expect the reverse Reagan.

 

[The Voice of Reason]

Put me down for a McCain win:
McCain 301 EV
Obama 237 EV

Popular Vote:
McCain 53%
Obama 46%


I've never been right yet - and I don't want this to be the first time.

I'm taking one for the team here.

 

[UnityNow101]

You guys are all selling the third party vote kind of short, don't you think? Ron Paul has pushed hard for his supporters to vote third party, and the movement seems pretty strong to me. In many of the polls leading up to the election, the third party vote was not measured...

In the end, I voted for Obama, for all of your information. It was a tough choice for me. I sat in the booth for about 5 minutes just trying to decide between Nader and Obama...

 

[tomspug]

Not that I think the third-parties will be insignificant this election, but their public visibility has been incredibly minimal this election. I have not seen a solitary third party commercial, advertisement, or even a sign or bumper sticker supporting Barr or Nader.

I will add that I think Barr will get more votes than Nader.

 

[UnityNow101]

Yeah, I may have overstated the third party vote by giving them a total of 6.9%. But I am locked in and let's see how it ends up...

By the way, in no way will Barr get more votes then Ralph Nader. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chuck Baldwin end up with more votes then Bob Barr, to be honest. Remember that Balwin got the endorsement of Ron Paul, for whatever that is worth...

 

[Mathematician]

Polls I've seen still show Nader ahead of Barr, but they're months old. I do know that the nomination of Barr ****** a little of left- and center-libertarians out of the party. Ron Paul selecting Baldwin probably scared those supporters of his who didn't realize he was a social conservative.

 

[Watchmen]

Obama: 341
McCain: 197

Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%

 

[UnityNow101]

Ron Paul selecting Baldwin probably scared those supporters of his who didn't realize he was a social conservative.

Yes, when Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin I was like eek::run. I didn't expect Ron Paul to support such a religious nutcase. I agree with Baldwin on some issues, but the man is out there when it comes to the social issues, as you have said. I certainly lost some respect for Paul when he put his support behind Baldwin, that is for sure. He would have been better supporting none of them personally, but pushing for the third party vote, as he had done originally...

Shame on Ron Paul for that endorsement!

 

[UnityNow101]

I listen to a lot of Indie Talk radio on Sirius. Maybe that is why I am under the impression that the third party vote is going to show up this year...

When people actually get into the voting booth they are probably going to end up supporting either McCain or Obama, as I did. It is hard to vote against Obama in such a historic election. If Obama doesn't perform in his first term, then we can throw him out in four years, preferably with a ticket headed by Matt Gonzalez, a true progressive...

 

[Mr. Hair]

EV: Obama - 306; McCain - 232

I'll see Obama take Ohio vigorously from behind, but have Florida just squeak away at the last minute. Oh, and for the PV I'll say 51% to Obama; 46.5% to McCain.

By the by, to my lasting regret I don't happen to be American. Is there any chance I can get those frubals converted into some kind of fancy-metric-doodah?

 

[UnityNow101]

Wow, I completely overestimated the 3rd party vote. It didn't show up at all!

 

[Willamena]

My final predictions:

(1) Obama 52.6% to McCain 46.2%
(2) Obama with 363.

If you're spot on, do we get to suspect a supernatural source, or that you are actually a supernatural being yourself?

 

[Comet]

Comet 100% of all!!!!!!!!!

Obama about 52% and McCain 46% with roughly 2% other.....

Obama a bit over 300 on Electoral and McCain around 185

I think Indiana goes McCain with NC.... Florida and California win it for Obama.... Virginia, a toss up but probably Obama....

I have tomorrow off from work so I can stay up drinking wine and watching by my warm fire!!

 

[Comet]

Wow, I completely overestimated the 3rd party vote. It didn't show up at all!

I was hoping for a 10-12% 3rd party vote this election myself.... I feel it will be low. As I have stated in other threads, even my OWN SISTER cast her vote for the lesser of two evils in this election rather than who she wanted to win!!!!!!!!!!! SAD!

 

[doppelganger]

Good guesses everyone. Looks I'll get to frubal myself though. If Obama holds North Carolina, that'll give him 364 so I missed that by just one. And I got the popular vote almost exactly right.

And most importantly, I kicked Karl Rove's *** (though not as badly as the voters did last night).