First Five Months of 2015 Hottest on Record

[Monk Of Reason]

First Five Months Of 2015 Were The Hottest Ever Recorded | IFLScience

Nuff said. Or is this not yet enough evidence of global climate change.

 

[Jainarayan]

They forgot to average NJ in for January and February. We had the longest cold period since the Great Depression.

 

[Ouroboros]

They forgot to average NJ in for January and February. We had the longest cold period since the Great Depression.

I think NASA is including the cold periods and places too. It's supposed to be the total global average. Put it this way, it is that much hotter in the hot places to compensate for the cold records in the cold places. That's what I suspect is the explanation.

 

[Jainarayan]

Yeah, I was being facetious. I firmly believe the climate is changing. Some places are hotter, some places are colder. I think we're going to have a hot summer here, if "spring" is any indication. We had several weeks of below 0 temps., not including wind chills during the winter. Frozen and burst pipes all over the area (twice for me) because we're not prepared for it in our construction. The year 2000 saw some of the hottest temps. we've had in a long time also, for almost a week > 100°.

 

[Baladas]

Don't ask me. I live in Arizona, and it's hot as hell here every year.
Also, it's full of climate-change deniers.

 

[Nakosis]

Don't ask me. I live in Arizona, and it's hot as hell here every year.
Also, it's full of climate-change deniers.

I remember some 35 years ago, in Arizona, sitting in the shade, just watching beads of sweat form on my skin. I'd dry it off and within seconds my skin would be wet with sweat again.

On a local note, California has faced 200 year long droughts in the past. It has actually been a lot wetter this century than in the past.

The state could have done a lot to prepare for such a drought. They've done nothing for 40 years. Now they're complaining that folks are taking too long in the showers. All that money taken in by the government, what is it really used for?

 

[Ingledsva]

First Five Months Of 2015 Were The Hottest Ever Recorded | IFLScience

Nuff said. Or is this not yet enough evidence of global climate change.

Yep, Alaska hit 100 degrees in April, - the earliest recorded. We are getting more and more invasive plant and animal species. We now have cougar!

Villages up north have had to be moved because the permafrost is not permanent anymore and the villages are sinking and the ocean is coming in over them.

*

 

[Baladas]

Wow! I had no idea that Alaska ever reached triple digits!

Yep, Alaska hit 100 degrees in April, - the earliest recorded. We are getting more and more invasive plant and animal species. We now have cougar!

Villages up north have had to be moved because the permafrost is not permanent anymore and the villages are sinking and the ocean is coming in over them.

*

 

[Ben Dhyan]

First Five Months Of 2015 Were The Hottest Ever Recorded | IFLScience

Nuff said. Or is this not yet enough evidence of global climate change.

Statistically this does not mean much as the global average temperature is still only 0.7C above that of 140 years ago....and in the last 18 years, the satellite record shows no statistically significant warning... And in this century...the divergence between the agw climate models and observed keeps widening showing that the models are wrong,

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Statistically this does not mean much as the global average temperature is still only 0.7C above that of 140 years ago....and in the last 18 years, the satellite record shows no statistically significant warning... And in this century...the divergence between the agw climate models and observed keeps widening showing that the models are wrong,

Source?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Source?

Of which point.....the global warming over the last 130 years......the 18 year warming pause according to satellite records.....or the increasing divergence between agw models and observed temperature?

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Of which point.....the global warming over the last 130 years......the 18 year warming pause according to satellite records.....or the increasing divergence between agw models and observed temperature?

Primarily the divergence of the models. Is it a variable divergence or is it a statistical divergence?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

Primarily the divergence of the models. Is it a variable divergence or is it a statistical divergence?

C3: IPCC Climate Models: The Divergence From Climate Reality Continues In 2014

The IPCC's climate models have been noteworthy for their unfettered pattern of prediction failure, misleading policymakers and taxpayers alike regarding global warming...predictably, the pattern of failure continues in 2014.....

Multi-billions have been invested into climate science, with a special emphasis on climate models.

Despite the massive expenditures, the climate models utilized by the IPCC continue to be ginormous failures for the purpose of prediction.

The adjacent chart depicts this continuing pattern of failure by comparing the 3-year average of observed temperatures (HadCRUT4) versus the output of state-of-the-art CMIP5 models. The dataset plots reflect the most current values through June 2014.

It is a testament to consensus failure by government funded scientists who are driven by anti-science agendas, the political hyperbole of activists and crony capitalists.

The chart is also a testament to the unmitigated disaster of basing computer models almost exclusively on the influence of trace atmospheric gas CO2 instead of the natural climate cycles and oscillations that dominate the world of climate reality.

 

[Monk Of Reason]

C3: IPCC Climate Models: The Divergence From Climate Reality Continues In 2014

The IPCC's climate models have been noteworthy for their unfettered pattern of prediction failure, misleading policymakers and taxpayers alike regarding global warming...predictably, the pattern of failure continues in 2014.....

Multi-billions have been invested into climate science, with a special emphasis on climate models.

Despite the massive expenditures, the climate models utilized by the IPCC continue to be ginormous failures for the purpose of prediction.

The adjacent chart depicts this continuing pattern of failure by comparing the 3-year average of observed temperatures (HadCRUT4) versus the output of state-of-the-art CMIP5 models. The dataset plots reflect the most current values through June 2014.

It is a testament to consensus failure by government funded scientists who are driven by anti-science agendas, the political hyperbole of activists and crony capitalists.

The chart is also a testament to the unmitigated disaster of basing computer models almost exclusively on the influence of trace atmospheric gas CO2 instead of the natural climate cycles and oscillations that dominate the world of climate reality.

I will have to go into more research about this chart. All of the links I have found is that as of 2015 we have reached a .8 differnece.

Though I think it is also important to note that I haven't found a cite that wasn't anit-global warming in nature that has posted these results. Not saying they are wrong but here is a link as well that explains much of the issues and shows the predictive graphs alongside the observed effects.

How reliable are climate models?

 

[Ben Dhyan]

I will have to go into more research about this chart. All of the links I have found is that as of 2015 we have reached a .8 differnece.

Though I think it is also important to note that I haven't found a cite that wasn't anit-global warming in nature that has posted these results. Not saying they are wrong but here is a link as well that explains much of the issues and shows the predictive graphs alongside the observed effects.

How reliable are climate models?

Yes...I have seen old graph from Tamino.... but the graph uses data only up to January 2010 and is based on the superseded AR4 projections....before the AR5 model projections were published... Here are a couple of links to comparison graphs that use AR5 projections from Dr Judith Curry and Dr Roy Spencer

IPCC AR5 weakens the case for AGW | Climate Etc.


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STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means « Roy Spencer, PhD

 

[Twilight Hue]

First Five Months Of 2015 Were The Hottest Ever Recorded | IFLScience

Nuff said. Or is this not yet enough evidence of global climate change.

Climate change has been happening all throughout the earths history. I don't see anything unique about it that sets things apart other than making an adjustment to the new weather patterns.

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Climate change has been happening all throughout the earths history. I don't see anything unique about it that sets things apart other than making an adjustment to the new weather patterns.

The issue has been that humans have had a had in it. We have polluted on a scale almost never before seen. And should we take action to curb this pollution and effects on the earth and its climate. Obviously global warming will happen reguardless of us but we how much have we accelerated it and should we do anything to stop it if we have accelerated it.

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Yes...I have seen old graph from Tamino.... but the graph uses data only up to January 2010 and is based on the superseded AR4 projections....before the AR5 model projections were published... Here are a couple of links to comparison graphs that use AR5 projections from Dr Judith Curry and Dr Roy Spencer

IPCC AR5 weakens the case for AGW | Climate Etc.


---------------------------------------
STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means « Roy Spencer, PhD

From what I have read so far its that these last three years in particular have been on the lower end of the predictions. They haven't been wrong but they have been on the lower end. However the sea levels have risen right along as predicted however and I think that is important to note.

Also the last five years, only about three of those five years have been anything but jumps in temperature. (For example this year if meaned only with itself rather than the cold year we had a few years ago which has kept the statistical five year mean down for the last five years) This year so far is the highest average temperature for a year ever recorded.

This is a graph of each of the averaged temperatures 4 times a year. You will notice that it spiked at its second highest in 2010. Then for the years 2011 and 2012 it went well below what the temperatures were at for 2010 and then shot back up at 2013 and has reached the highest nearly the end of 2014. Since then it has increased even more in 2015. Soon as the years 2011 and 2012 rotate out the five year mean will drastically shoot up. In fact soon as just one of those years rotates out the projection for 2016 will jump and in 2017 (assuming there isn't another cold year in 2016) it will most likely be significantly higher than even the 2010 five year mean reading.

 

[Ben Dhyan]

The issue has been that humans have had a had in it. We have polluted on a scale almost never before seen. And should we take action to curb this pollution and effects on the earth and its climate. Obviously global warming will happen reguardless of us but we how much have we accelerated it and should we do anything to stop it if we have accelerated it.

Pollution is another issue and should not be conflated with climate change.....

 

[Monk Of Reason]

Pollution is another issue and should not be conflated with climate change.....

Pollution and climate change are inseparable. There are certain aspects of pollution that may not have to do with climate change but there is no aspect of climate change that we are addressing that does not have to do with pollution.