Most anti-evolution types do not know how to use probabilities. Every "odds argument" that I have seen to date is a strawman of what is thought to go on. One needs no math to refute such arguments, one must merely demonstrate that the methodology is bogus.
What makes you think that the odds are so low?
Probably for one, the need for the answer to be goddidit.
For another, lack of the tools to actually look at probability in this.
Maybe it would help to have at least a little background
in organic chemistry.
It is not just the multiple billions of years involved.
The earth has around 330 million cubic miles of water.
There is an awful lot of carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen around. Organic molecules-amino acids- even show up on comets!
A lot of chemical reactions work pretty fast. Put the mix together under
a wide variety of conditions, and anything that can happen, will happen.
Now if one of our creationists can show us why any particular reaction
(such as happen every day!) cannot happen and therefore God, let them
speak.
If they cannot identify the "barrier" between life and non life, and say why
it takes "God" to take that step, well, maybe they dont have much to say.