I wrote a recent post on my optimistic personal philosophy which replaces the need for a religion. I encountered resistance from a few pessimistic posters who used the word "Utopian" which implies unrealistic optimism. I also got resistance from a Christian who, based on scripture, predicts that the end times are near. So, here's my argument that global harmony is inevitable and that my optimism is a realistic prediction based on the evidence.
This is essentially a measurement problem, so we have to be careful to isolate what we intend to measure.
Here's what we need to know:
Q. Are average human beings today morally better, worse, or the same compared to their average ancestors?
A. Average human beings today are kinder people than their average ancestors of any past era. Like a simple binary code, pain and pleasure signals coming from the unconscious function of our brains provide us with an on-board moral guidance system. We refer to it as our conscience. We are punished with the pain of guilt after we have intentionally caused harm to someone innocent. The pain of guilt is not severe, but it can nag us for a lifetime. When we treat others with kindness, we are rewarded with pleasure. We feel good about it.
Humanity is now, and probably has always been, making moral progress. We are treating each other better right now than at any time in our history. However, that encouraging fact is not obvious. There are five factors that can cloud our view:
1. Population growth causes the total number of criminal acts to increase even when the crime rate goes down. It also inflates the number of soldiers involved in wars.
2. Advances in weapons technology inflate the numbers killed in war. Each soldier in the Second World War carried a more effective weapon than the soldiers in the Crusades; but that fact doesn't imply that the Crusader was a better human being.
3. Advances in communications technology makes it possible for us to see video footage of violent events the day they happen from halfway around the world. In the USA of the 1950s the switch-blade knife wielding act of the disturbed teenager would have made page three of the local paper. Today, his far more harmful act using an assault rifle would be seen around the world.
4. We will read about far more rape, child molestation, and about men abusing their wives and children today than the public did in the 1920s. That is not because the rate of those crimes is increasing. It is because those crimes were seldom reported in those days. They were seldom reported because, if reported, they were seldom punished.
5. The belief that our primitive ancestors once lived in harmony with nature is most likely a popular myth accepted uncritically only by stubborn pessimists who, despite all the evidence to the contrary, remain convinced that humanity is going straight to hell.
Evidence of moral progress is extensive. Here's a partial list:
• The hateful way the world's religions sometimes treat each other is still a problem today but the problem has diminished considerably since the time of the Crusades;
• The sacred texts of Judaism, Christianity and Islam condone slavery and treat women as subservient to men in addition to giving other very bad moral advice. This is evidence that the men who wrote those texts two thousand years ago lived in societies that were morally immature by today's best standards;
• Racial and national prejudices have been weakening; among the nations, many once-traditional enemies are now trade partners;
• Imperialism is waning as powerful nations are much less likely today to want to dominate the weaker nations to extend their empire.
• Children of the poor are still used as cheap labor in a few cultures, but compared to the past, much progress has been made with Child Labor laws;
• In morally advanced cultures, men are learning to treat women as equals and they are not getting away with abusing women as they once did;
• Caste systems, like India's, which have resulted in unfairness for many over centuries, are gradually crumbling;
• Not very long ago, violent strikes were common during Management and Labor negotiations; it happens far less often today;
• Employers have learned that it is profitable to give both employees and consumers more respect and better treatment than they once did;
• Government corruption and oppression are still a problem but much progress has been made since governments for the people have been replacing governments for the privileged;
• During past wars in human history, civilian populations were ravaged; today, attempts are being made to limit the targeting to combatants;
• Because of the Geneva Convention and other similar efforts, prisoners of war are treated better now than at any time in our history;
• We still hear about prisoners being tortured but, in the Middle Ages, torture was a thriving industry. Clever devices were designed and made to maximize pain;
• NFL Football provides mild violence as entertainment, but it is nothing compared to the spectacle of slaughter seen in Rome's Colosseum;
• The nations of the world have abolished slavery; it's still a problem but not nearly to the extent that it was just a few centuries back.
• Oxford sociologist Manuel Eisner's study persuasively demonstrated a long-term pattern of declining homicide rates across Europe over 800 years.
• Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker makes a well-documented case for moral progress in his book History and the Decline of Human Violence. A brief summary of his argument can also be heard on his TED Talks video: The Surprising Decline of Violence.
Now that we have the evidence sorted, the argument for global harmony is fairly simple:
p = premise
C = Conclusion
p1 Humanity's moral progress is a long-term trend;
p2 When we make moral gains, we hold them. There's no evidence of backsliding; for example, we don't expect to someday see slavery condoned in the nations of the world as it once was.
p3 We humans are at our very best in responding to a crisis;
C1 Therefore, barring an unforeseeable calamity that will kill off our species, the moral gains will continue; we will hold those gains; and global harmony (I didn't say perfect harmony) is inevitable. It's just a matter of time.
EDIT: For additional evidence including some links, see Sunrise123's post #3.
Another edit: Sealchan suggested the upgrade in our care of the handicapped. I found this link: A History of Disability: from 1050 to the Present Day | Historic England
