I've got a little time now so I'm back!
I find it interesting how the majority of the posts here didn't really offer a critique of Licona's work from a historical perspective but a philosophical one. Most posts here rely on the same argument LeafCoast mentioned so I am going to keep my replies focused on the discussion I'm having with him as far as that goes. I do find it hard to believe that that's the only flaw people see in his arguments. Surely there's objections to the argument that go beyond the old Humean a priori dismissal of miracles and I would like to familiarize myself with some of those.
What did I misunderstand? You haven't pointed anything out to me yet.
The big thing that struck me was the same thing I corrected the other guy for, when I said it's a historical fact that Jesus was a miracle worker and an exorcist, you expressed disbelief because you took me as saying it's a historical fact that Jesus actually performed miracles and exorcised demons. But it doesn't matter, just giving an example of what lead me to that conclusion.
I would say it changes nothing, correct. How many magicians do you know who actually do magic, rather than illusions, mind tricks, etc?
Ok, what if we had a bunch of scientists doing all sorts of possible tests and they come to the conclusion that there is no conceivable way that he could've placed the cup there? (For whatever reason, maybe there was no one in the room at the time of it appearing or whatever.) If all possible natural explanations for the cup appearing fail to explain it adequately would you be willing to posit a miracle as an explanation or would you just chalk it up to mystery, saying we don't know how they did it but it must've been natural?
If you can explain the resurrection without appealing to God, by all means do so. If you can't, then we agree this is another assumption that must be made for your hypothesis to work.
I'm not explaining the resurrection, I'm using the resurrection as an explanation for the historical bedrock. As stated in a previous post (I'll repeat it here since I intend to focus on our discussion as I said earlier) Licona doesn't make reference to God in the resurrection hypothesis which he states as follows:
"Following a supernatural event of an indeterminate nature and cause, Jesus appeared to a number of people, in individual and group settings and to friends and foes, in no less than an objective vision and perhaps within ordinary vision in his bodily raised corpse."
(Chapter 5.7.1. Description of the Resurrection View)
I know I made reference to God wishing to raise someone from the dead but if we're going to stick to Licona's argument as he defends it he would say that the plausibility of a miracle would be directly linked to one's horizon. If naturalism is true it's unlikely that a miracle is an explanation but if supernaturalism is true the miracle as an explanation becomes far more likely. We need to look at the data and bracket our worldviews or we'll be driven by our horizons rather than the evidence.