Humanity's downfall - how close are we?

[Fluffy]

I view the planet as a homeostatic system. If humanity does do something very stupid then as long as it doesn't crack the very core of the Earth, I am sure the system will stabalise itself... it is predisposed to do just that, afterall.

It is difficult to place an estimate on humanity but I'm quite certain that life will be there at the end of the universe (if it ends). I think intelligent life will fail the moment it cannot find a place in which it can survive. Nuclear weapons are not nearly powerful enough (they are pathetic compared with a volcano or earthquake) and global warming is nothing that the planet hasn't had to deal with before so I figure that, assuming we are unable to find a way off our solar system which seems likely at this time, humanity will survive until the Sun dies.

 

[Smoke]

I view the planet as a homeostatic system. If humanity does do something very stupid then as long as it doesn't crack the very core of the Earth, I am sure the system will stabalise itself... it is predisposed to do just that, afterall.

It is difficult to place an estimate on humanity but I'm quite certain that life will be there at the end of the universe (if it ends). I think intelligent life will fail the moment it cannot find a place in which it can survive. Nuclear weapons are not nearly powerful enough (they are pathetic compared with a volcano or earthquake) and global warming is nothing that the planet hasn't had to deal with before so I figure that, assuming we are unable to find a way off our solar system which seems likely at this time, humanity will survive until the Sun dies.

Why do you assume our species will survive as long as the planet does?

 

[sparc872]

Um ...

Wars are the end result of a lack of understanding and apathy. Once we put down our guards, become ignorant, then wars happen. Had we understood eachother and our positions in the first place then wars would not occur. Had we understood our position in the environment and our effects on it, then we would not be going through global warming right now.

A lot like guns do not kill people, people kill people. Wars and destruction are just the tools of apathy and a lack of understanding.

 

[Fluffy]

Why do you assume our species will survive as long as the planet does?

I think we will survive longer. Pluto should still be habitable when the Sun grows in size and engulfs the Earth.

My reasoning is that I cannot really see any other way to prevent humanity from adapting other than pushing us where we cannot go. Very few life forms can survive in space on a long term basis and with the help of technology, we may be able to manage it.

What we require is some form of energy. Moving energy requires energy and space and so we must stay near the Sun. We cannot travel faster than light and even if we could, it would require too much energy. Therefore, what will finally kill us is when our main source of energy dies and that is the Sun.

Any earlier estimate of when we will die does not seem quite as certain as that in my mind.

 

[Smoke]

I think we will survive longer. Pluto should still be habitable when the Sun grows in size and engulfs the Earth.

My reasoning is that I cannot really see any other way to prevent humanity from adapting other than pushing us where we cannot go. Very few life forms can survive in space on a long term basis and with the help of technology, we may be able to manage it.

What we require is some form of energy. Moving energy requires energy and space and so we must stay near the Sun. We cannot travel faster than light and even if we could, it would require too much energy. Therefore, what will finally kill us is when our main source of energy dies and that is the Sun.

Any earlier estimate of when we will die does not seem quite as certain as that in my mind.

I think you're far too optimistic, but I guess the one thing certain is that neither of us will be around to see who's right.

 

[Booko]

It's true what you've said - understanding one another will be salvation. However, it took thousands of years for our societies and its religions, values, cultures, and boundaries to form. Yet all of the different groups are mixing, melding, and colliding faster in the past two centuries than in the last thousands of years. The question is can we be understanding as fast as we are colliding?

If we have one common thing to look toward, then yes we can.

 

[Valjean]

I view the planet as a homeostatic system. If humanity does do something very stupid then as long as it doesn't crack the very core of the Earth, I am sure the system will stabalise itself... it is predisposed to do just that, afterall.

Humanity is doing something very stupid, and because of our Pleistocene psychology we seem unable to aknowledge or stop it. In only eight or nine thousand years our species has exploded across the planet, destroying the interconnected web of processes that maintain biospheric homeostasis.

True, the "system" has the capacity to stabilize itself -- if it has not been tipped too far, and currently we're beyond the point of equilibrium and still pushing. Once it falls -- as it has several times in the geological past -- it takes millions and millions of years to heal. We are now in the middle of one of these planetary catastrophes and we are the cause of it. Whilst these Great Die-Offs may happen in an instant of geologic time, from our short, threescore-and-ten lifespans, limited geographical perspective and lack of understanding of the interrelated processes that have been disrupted it is difficult to recognise the changes. In addition, our tribal psychologies make it difficult to empathise with more than about 150 persons. It is difficult to motivate people to curb their own parochial interests in the interest of the species as a whole, much less so abstract a concept as a biosphere.

It is difficult to place an estimate on humanity but I'm quite certain that life will be there at the end of the universe (if it ends). I think intelligent life will fail the moment it cannot find a place in which it can survive. Nuclear weapons are not nearly powerful enough (they are pathetic compared with a volcano or earthquake) and global warming is nothing that the planet hasn't had to deal with before so I figure that, assuming we are unable to find a way off our solar system which seems likely at this time, humanity will survive until the Sun dies.

Volcanos and earthquakes do not have the radioactive sequelae that nuclear weapons do, they merely rearrange the real estate a bit and occasionally muck up the atmosphere and weather for a few years.
Global warming is something a vastly overpopulated, industrialized species like our own has never dealt with. Have you considered the effect on Europe if Arctic meltwater shuts down the Atlantic Conveyor? Have you considered the incredible levels of pollutants that rising seas would wash from our coastal cities, farms, and chemical stores? Have you considered the effects of massive desertification on populations? Half of mankind is already malnourished; eking out their nasty, short, brutish lives on less than a Pound a day.

I think your assessment of our situation is a bit pollyannish, Fluffy.

 

[Neo-Logic]

It's scary how fast civilization has been moving, mixing, and advancing within just this century in all facets of our lives when compared to any time prior in humanity's history. If we know one thing, it is this - all our knowledge about our advancements in technology and science that are remotely good or harmful will undoubtedbly be used as a platform to propel nearly all aspects of our living conditions to be potentially better and potentially more destrutive.

Yes, I do agree that the planet and nature can stablize itself. However, here are two things to consider as seyorni have also mentioned -
(1). -In the past, both before and after humanity's existance on Earth, the planet has proven its ability to 'heal' itself from severe devistations such as the meteorite impacts and natural diasters. This healing however, as seyorni mentioned, took millions of years in some cases or in the very least thousands and thousands of years. These are years that humanity cannot afford in regression of any facets of our lives whether it be technological, scientific, or social set backs. Yet this is exactly what will need to happen for our planet to recover itself because without us stopping what we're doing which is advancing ourselves for better or for worse, it cannot heal and humanity as a whole cannot afford to stop.

Humanity has come to a stage in its existance where if it stops progressing, we simply will deteoriate because our progression is the only thing that's keeping us one step ahead from having to face all the effects of the damage we have caused to get this far. We're in a race and if we stop, only God knows what could happen.

(2.) If nature could heal itself despite all interferences from our kind, the chances that nature and the planet will heal itself around the comforts of humanity are slim. In other words, what if the only way for nature and the planet to heal itself is to erradicate humanity either in parts or as a whole? Afterall mankind is just one specie on this planet amongst countless numbers yet we do the majority of the damage. We in a sense are parasites and as such, our host may just as well choose to have an elective biopsy to rid itself of the problems that is in a large part, humanity.

Our problems today are too different and too new for the planet to heal itself the same way it has in the past. Hoping that the planet could heal itself with us still doing the same things that we're doing now to do harm is like using a bandage to treat a gun shot wound - it's just impractical.

 

[sparc872]

Neo-Logic,

We have done damage and lots of it but we are not beyond hope. Our wrongs can be righted. All the bad that we have done as a collective group can be fixed, we just have to fight for it. We could say that it is too late, all is lost, or we can stand up for our future and do everything in our power to educate, inform, and change the way we are living in this world.

Anybody who thinks that we can continue on this path is crazy but at the same time, anyone who thinks all is lost and we have no chance of survival is also crazy.

CO2 - Scientists just discovered a way to put CO2 into sodium bicarbonate to get rid of CO2 in the air.

 

[OneStraw Revolutionary]

In other words, what if the only way for nature and the planet to heal itself is to erradicate humanity either in parts or as a whole? Afterall mankind is just one specie on this planet amongst countless numbers yet we do the majority of the damage. We in a sense are parasites and as such, our host may just as well choose to have an elective biopsy to rid itself of the problems that is in a large part, humanity.

I use to feel that way. Such an outlook isn't going to stop the climate from changing or that nuclear missile streaking through the sky, however.

Indeed, we do have a short life span and thus a short view of things, but it could waste crucial time to try and expand that view at this point. Instead, lets look through that short view for a moment, and see what we find. Oh, my, it looks as though we're going to need a new fuel source in our lifetime. Better get working on that. And as for this climate change thing, well, we should determine what effects it could have and how to survive them, maybe even how to minimize the "damage."

Its up to everybody to change this, to stall the "end of humanity." Educate yourselves, live closer to nature, stop electing nuclear-warhead-brandishing officials (one way or another), educate OTHERS with what works.

Our agriculturist society is the root of these problems, every single one. Distancing ourselves with what nurtures us, trying to perfect the world with our limited view, these things brought upon the human-spawned climate change, nuclear weapons, and mass famine and disease. What will you do to change it?

 

[sparc872]

I'm going to take every chance I get to spread word about my new website, The Open Source City Project. Stop by and join in the fight to change the world we live in.

 

[Fluffy]

I think your assessment of our situation is a bit pollyannish, Fluffy.

I think the reason I do not seem worried is because I do not consider the human race to be worth worrying over. Value, in my mind, is all relative.

I focus on the best case scenario for man's survival. Fixing our current problem's goes without saying but I just can't see global warming wiping out every single human being. I disagree that we have nearly snapped the elastic of the system and that it has a good deal more yet to go. Sure we will suffer the consequences of our actions long before that happens but millions of years isn't that long a time really.

The way I see it, if we fail to fix global warming (for example) then a vast portion of humanity will be wiped out. However, along with that extermination will also go all of the things that we were doing to kill the planet and therefore prevent us from doing further immediate damage. This will allow time to heal and plenty of time for the survivors to adapt to the new world.

Generally, the only thing that wipes out a species is when their environment chances very quickly and I mean decades not centuries. Given our technological capabilities, it will have to be even faster than that. A nuclear war might do it sure... if those nukes were spread our evenly across the whole planet surface. But that won't happen, they will be focused onto certain powerful parts of the globe... most countries will survive without getting hit. Most of the surface will become uninhabitable but it won't be fast enough to kill us off completely.

 

[sparc872]

I think the reason I do not seem worried is because I do not consider the human race to be worth worrying over. Value, in my mind, is all relative.

I focus on the best case scenario for man's survival. Fixing our current problem's goes without saying but I just can't see global warming wiping out every single human being. I disagree that we have nearly snapped the elastic of the system and that it has a good deal more yet to go. Sure we will suffer the consequences of our actions long before that happens but millions of years isn't that long a time really.

The way I see it, if we fail to fix global warming (for example) then a vast portion of humanity will be wiped out. However, along with that extermination will also go all of the things that we were doing to kill the planet and therefore prevent us from doing further immediate damage. This will allow time to heal and plenty of time for the survivors to adapt to the new world.

Generally, the only thing that wipes out a species is when their environment chances very quickly and I mean decades not centuries. Given our technological capabilities, it will have to be even faster than that. A nuclear war might do it sure... if those nukes were spread our evenly across the whole planet surface. But that won't happen, they will be focused onto certain powerful parts of the globe... most countries will survive without getting hit. Most of the surface will become uninhabitable but it won't be fast enough to kill us off completely.

I am sorry to say it, but you come off as a bit careless as well as heartless. It is not just humanity that will suffer, but every other species on this planet. It will be our children that will suffer and bear the burden of our gluttony, our overconsumption. You talk about it as if it is not a serious issue. It is the biggest issue we have faced since our introduction into this world. We are destroying the most important thing in our existence, the one thing that will keep us alive and well. The one thing that has always been there for us, regardless of what we have done to it. The earth is our only home and we are about to get the eviction notice if we don't calm our excessive lifestyles; our excessive breeding and our excessive consumption.

 

[Neo-Logic]

Generally, the only thing that wipes out a species is when their environment chances very quickly and I mean decades not centuries. Given our technological capabilities, it will have to be even faster than that. A nuclear war might do it sure... if those nukes were spread our evenly across the whole planet surface. But that won't happen, they will be focused onto certain powerful parts of the globe... most countries will survive without getting hit. Most of the surface will become uninhabitable but it won't be fast enough to kill us off completely.

Countries and their respective nuclear warheads -

Country/active/total-

• USA/5735/9960
• Russia/5830/1600
• UK/200
• France/350
• China/130
• India/75-115
• Pakistan/65-90 Source

Countries posessing nuclear weapons -

• Acknowledged: Britain, China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, United States

• Unacknowledged: Israelhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762462.html

• Seeking: North Korea,1 Iran2

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762462.html

• Abandoned: South Africa—Constructed but then voluntarily dismantled six uranium bombs. Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine—When Soviet Union broke up, these former states possessed nuclear warheads that they have since given up."

Effects of Nuclear Weapon usage -

• Radioactive Contamination
• Harm to the Ozone Layer
• Nuclear Winter
• Thermal Radiation Emission
• Ionizing Radiation
• Electromagnetic effects
• Thermal Injury
• Incendiary Effects
• Acute Radiation Sickness

Let's just stick on the point of nuclear weapons alone. On record, number of nuclear weapons that the countries around the world posess totals over 10,000 and this is just the official. Chances are these are the conservative figures.

Should there ever be use of a single nuclear weapon on this Earth, the possibility that others will quickly follow in retaliation or counter-strikes and other reasons are very possible in the domino-effect fashion. The immenent and after effects are all devistating. Yes, areas of less importance will survive but without a doubt the weapons will be sent to impact the most important of all locations - communication, power, military, air-ways, economic, financial, and other important targets.

If these in any of the major countries should go, globalization and our interconnected commerce will directly and indirectly affect the world's economy as a whole. If the giants should go down as a whole, the smaller countries and the rest of the world all together are in trouble as the economic instablity alone would cause widespread financial panic and trouble and all problems associated whenever the economy in a country starts to whiter - riots, starvation, poverty, death, lootings, government intervention, rebellions, and revolutions.
Every threat today is a very real and very insidious danger. Especially in today's world because of our advanced technologies, massive and possibily irreversible damage could be and perhaps could've already been caused in a matter of decades. Oh yes, this is very possible and the old way thinking of the widespread diaster causing catestrophes are no longer limited to the time frames of centuries with all of our nifty little inventions.

 

[OneStraw Revolutionary]

As citizens of these nuclear warhead touting nations, we should be ashamed of ourselves for putting the world in such grave risk by allowing officials unwilling to disarm into office. Lets get to work and fix this.

 

[Neo-Logic]

As citizens of these nuclear warhead touting nations, we should be ashamed of ourselves for putting the world in such grave risk by allowing officials unwilling to disarm into office. Lets get to work and fix this.

What did you have in mind, lol.

 

[OneStraw Revolutionary]

Well, we each have different things we can do, but it all has to start at a small level. The more people who go to anti-war, or anti-nuke protests the more coverage it gets. Start implementing ways of living that use less unsustainable resources, and be happy with it. Get active in your local politics; after all, its easy to complain about our choice of politicians to elect, but becoming a member of the party, attending their conferences and actually having part of a say as to who the party backs helps. Start planning for and investing in renewable and sustainable (not to mention clean and safe) energy. You might not be able to afford those solar panels yet, but with time and planning you will.

I don't have the ability to fly to Washington and make all these officials see what is so obvious to so many. But if someone sees the way I live and how happy I am with it, or if someone is willing to listen to information on why this **** is bad, or if enough progressives get into the party to elect a progressive, then things around you will change. Hell, its old, but change starts at home.

These are some things I plan to or am already doing. Somethings NOT to do would be to not vote and allow the powers that be to hold sway over our world, to just post about this topic on a message board and then go to bed in your heated house and drive to work in your fueled car and forget all about it, to remain dejected and hopeless. Spread the word, live the ideal, and we could just get there.

Hmm, it wouldn't be a bad idea to brush up on survival knowledge either, just incase it all goes kaput. Doesn't hurt to have a Plan B, after all.

 

[almifkhar]

i don't believe that humanity as a whole will die off because of this or that.

earth goes through her cycles and we are up on 'that time of the month' so to speak. this is one of the reasons why the environment is the way it is. however,

man is the only group of living beings on this planet who goes out of his way to destroy himself and the environment. this is due to one simple thing, greed

the ancients talked over and over again about cycles of the planet, cosmos, and humans. this is just the end of such a cycle. the prophicies say that this time it will be a double wammy. nature will get us, and man will start a violent war. it has been said that a few billion of us wont see the rebuilding efforts due to our horrible deaths.

the only way i can see this planet with everything in it being murdered would be a huge comet (like what happened to mars), planet collision, or earth being blown to bits somehow.

 

[sparc872]

Almifkhar, you are right that the earth does go through natural cycles and that we were already on the upswing, but what you are not realizing is exactly how much beyond the natural cycles the CO2 and temperature levels are going. We have basically doubled the highest amount of CO2 in the air for the last 200,000 or so years. To think that we are in a period that will just eventually pass is a grave mistake. We are causing the earth to warm beyond natural levels and we are destroying many plants and animals in the process; plants and animals that help keep the balance in check. There is already danger of the entire Amazon forest disappearing within the next few years. It went through its worst drought in history last year and the signs of drought are showing even earlier this year. One or two more of those and we have a tinderbox.

 

[Fluffy]

I am sorry to say it, but you come off as a bit careless as well as heartless. It is not just humanity that will suffer, but every other species on this planet. It will be our children that will suffer and bear the burden of our gluttony, our overconsumption. You talk about it as if it is not a serious issue. It is the biggest issue we have faced since our introduction into this world. We are destroying the most important thing in our existence, the one thing that will keep us alive and well. The one thing that has always been there for us, regardless of what we have done to it. The earth is our only home and we are about to get the eviction notice if we don't calm our excessive lifestyles; our excessive breeding and our excessive consumption.

I have no reason to think that humanity is greater than other life or that life is greater than non-life and so I stumble when trying to construct a reason for why the end of humanity matters.

I have yet to find a single thing in life that does not have an end. Accepting that an end in some form is inevitable, or at the very least incredibly likely, is not heartless nor careless although I can understand why I might be percieved in that way. My emotional side is revolted at the thought of humanity's end but why pander to that emotion and cause myself unnecessary suffering? Better to accept it and concentrate on doing what needs to be done instead.

I judge an issue as serious with regards to the limits of my own powers. Recycling my empty cans is a serious issue. Making sure I turn off the lights when I leave the room is a serious issue. Trying to get others that I know to do the same is a serious issue. These I serious because they are concievable steps that I can take in order to achieve my goals.

If these in any of the major countries should go, globalization and our interconnected commerce will directly and indirectly affect the world's economy as a whole. If the giants should go down as a whole, the smaller countries and the rest of the world all together are in trouble as the economic instablity alone would cause widespread financial panic and trouble and all problems associated whenever the economy in a country starts to whiter - riots, starvation, poverty, death, lootings, government intervention, rebellions, and revolutions.

I don't see why you are equating the collapse of society with the end of humanity. Nuclear war would cause all of these things but it would not cause the end of humanity.

the only way i can see this planet with everything in it being murdered would be a huge comet (like what happened to mars), planet collision, or earth being blown to bits somehow.

I agree, although it would have to be a comet large enough to boil off the atmosphere. That would certainly do it.