Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program halted in 20003

[sandandfoam]

Despite intelligence that the Iranian nuclear weapons program halted in 2003 Bush still feels that Iran is a danger.Is this going to be Iraq all over again?

 

[angellous_evangellous]

Despite intelligence that the Iranian nuclear weapons program halted in 2003 Bush still feels that Iran is a danger.Is this going to be Iraq all over again?

Did you just parachute down from another planet?

 

[Sunstone]

Despite intelligence that the Iranian nuclear weapons program halted in 2003 Bush still feels that Iran is a danger.Is this going to be Iraq all over again?

Seems Cheney is very much for an attack.

 

[angellous_evangellous]

Seems Cheney is very much for an attack.

I've heard that from the majority of the candidates - at least, that's my impression. Who's not for war with Iran?

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

 

[Sunstone]

Who's not for war with Iran?

Sane people?

 

[angellous_evangellous]

Sane people?

They both sound insane to me.:yes:

A nuclear Iran is a death sentence for the middle east, and war with Iran is immediate suicide for the USA. Perhaps a completely changed middle east would be a long bleed for American interests, but we'd survive.

 

[sandandfoam]

They both sound insane to me.:yes:

A nuclear Iran is a death sentence for the middle east, and war with Iran is immediate suicide for the USA. Perhaps a completely changed middle east would be a long bleed for American interests, but we'd survive.

That may be true, the point is Iran has not had a nuclear weapons program since 2003. They have no active military nuclear program.There is no nuclear Iran coming.

 

[yossarian22]

That may be true, the point is Iran has not had a nuclear weapons program since 2003. They have no active military nuclear program.There is no nuclear Iran coming.

And what of civilian nuclear development which can easily be converted to produce a few nukes?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Despite intelligence that the Iranian nuclear weapons program halted in 2003 Bush still feels that Iran is a danger.

Iran is a danger, simply not an immanent nuclear danger.

Is this going to be Iraq all over again?

I certainly hope not.

 

[Mercy Not Sacrifice]

Did you just parachute down from another planet?

Actually, it's a prophecy. Look at the thread title carefully.

 

[UnityNow101]

This is HUGE news. It shows that our intelligence reports were wrong once again. It is just nice to know that this time Bush and his cronies didn't "jump the gun" and attack Iran on the basis of a nuclear weapons program like he attacked Iraq on the basis of their supposed WMD's. Now I just hope that Bush and many of his fellow republicans can talk serious about Iran and open the door for diplomacy which has been needed for years now. They cannot use the fear card on any of us now. They are not a nuclear threat at this time and should be treated appropriately...Now if we could just learn to take our intelligence reports with a grain of salt.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

They are not a nuclear threat at this time and should be treated appropriately...

Precisely. The are a country, run by a vitriolic holocaust denier, that has invested heavily in long-range missile systems (Ashoura and Shahab-3) on the one hand and Hezbollah on the other.

The report speculates on what might have occurred in 2003. It also suggests that Iran's current progress could result in them possessing a nuclear bomb by 2010-2015: for those numerically challenged, 2010 is just a bit over 2 months away.

(Note that this New York Times article is worth reading.)

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

From the much heralded National Intelligent Estimate:

• Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs. This, in turn, suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might—if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible—prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program. It is difficult to specify what such a combination might be.
• We assess with moderate confidence that convincing the Iranian leadership to forgo the eventual development of nuclear weapons will be difficult given the linkage many within the leadership probably see between nuclear weapons development and Iran’s key national security and foreign policy objectives, and given Iran’s considerable effort from at least the late 1980s to 2003 to develop such weapons. In our judgment, only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons—and such a decision is inherently reversible.

 

[Smoke]

I can't remember where I heard this; I could have read it online or heard it on the radio, but somebody was saying Bush's Arab allies have been telling him, Iran is the mad dog of the Mid East; you don't kick a mad dog unless you can kill it.

I have to admit, I was surprised to learn they'd ended their nuclear weapons program in 2003. I could understand why they might want a nuclear weapons program, or even feel they needed one, considering that the second most powerful country in the world is run by lunatics who obviously want to invade Iran.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I could understand why they might want a nuclear weapons program, or even feel they needed one, considering that the second most powerful country in the world is run by lunatics who obviously want to invade Iran.

That's little more than juvenile, irresponsible hyperbole.

 

[Mathematician]

Hey, I'm all up for tactical strikes on uranium facilities. Just don't complain if the Chinese do it to us for actually using the bomb.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

Hey, I'm all up for tactical strikes on uranium facilities. Just don't complain if the Chinese do it to us for actually using the bomb.

I know of no one who can render the tu quoque fallacy quite as absurd as you, Gene. It's a gift.

 

[angellous_evangellous]

I have to admit, I was surprised to learn they'd ended their nuclear weapons program in 2003.

I wasn't surprised in the least. The pressure on Iran has been to keep them from even having the possibilty of pursuing nuclear weapons, that is, preventing them from having a civilian nuclear program that could be converted into weapons.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I wasn't surprised in the least.

From the NYT quoted above:

In fact, some in the intelligence agencies appear to be not fully convinced that the notes of the deliberations indicated that all aspects of the weapons program had been shut down.

The crucial judgments released on Monday said that while “we judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years,” it also included the warning that “intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate” led both the Department of Energy and the National Intelligence Council “to assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.”

Sometimes it's prudent to prepare for the worst-case scenario and, in fact, irresponsible not to do so.

 

[sandandfoam]

Sometimes it's prudent to prepare for the worst-case scenario and, in fact, irresponsible not to do so.

I agree. At the moment I think US intelligence agencies are more prudent than the president, and thank goodness they are conducting themselves the way that they are.