• Welcome to Religious Forums, a friendly forum to discuss all religions in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to the following site features:
    • Reply to discussions and create your own threads.
    • Our modern chat room. No add-ons or extensions required, just login and start chatting!
    • Access to private conversations with other members.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon!

Is the rise of ISIS linked to Climate Change?

dust1n

Zindīq
Could probably make a better case that poverty leads to increased terrorism, one of the main reasons being to increased hunger and decreased access to food, and this, especially in the parts of the world, are about to get hugely impacted by weather changes that will make food production all the more difficult.

I didn't see the linkage in the article. But I'd agree with Obama that Climate Change does present a Security Issue.
 

Laika

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Yes. Drought Conditions in Syria was one of the factors that caused social unrest and were the result of climate change.

Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest « The Center for Climate & Security
http://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/
The effects of climate change will impact the ecological systems that affect our food and water supplies and therefore 'screw up' the current system. This is ringing alarm bells to the point where the American intelligence establishment considered climate change a security threat because of it's likely fallout.

Pentagon, CIA Eye New Threat: Climate Change : NPR

As with all science there is a degree of uncertianty in these conclusions, but it's extremely unlikely climate change won't cause political unrest and it all depends on its severity.
 

Wirey

Fartist
Point is that there is absolutely no demonstrative "climate change". It's a hoax.

That's simply not true. The climate changes constantly and has for the entirety of earth's existence. I believe you're arguing with the science that states climate change is being actively hastened by man. Outside the US, even oil companies acknowledge it's a real thing. Although I will concede openly that absolutely no one can tell for sure what the final effects will be. Climate is such a complex, intricate system that it may turn out that there's a built in collapse mechanism that will kill us all, or we may just need to buy a lot of hip waders.
 

Laika

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Climate is such a complex, intricate system that it may turn out that there's a built in collapse mechanism that will kill us all, or we may just need to buy a lot of hip waders.

The circumstances for climate change to lead to extinction are very extreme and has to do with global average tempratures exceeding our tolerances, leading death by heat stress (and it becoming uneconomical to keep cool), [See Paper Here]. the deaths of a very considerable number of people due to the crisis of our ecological and therefore economic systems however is much more likely and plausible.
 

gsa

Well-Known Member
Again with the insanity. ISIS does not cut the heads off people because they're hungry.

I am shocked, shocked, that someone who characterizes the underlying analysis of the OP and article this way rejects anthropogenic climate change.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
The circumstances for climate change to lead to extinction are very extreme and has to do with global average tempratures exceeding our tolerances, leading death by heat stress (and it becoming uneconomical to keep cool), [See Paper Here]. the deaths of a very considerable number of people due to the crisis of our ecological and therefore economic systems however is much more likely and plausible.

To be fair, I'm not sure the extinction of humans is much of a concern. The amount of Raid you'd have to spray on the Earth to take us out would be a lot. But, the general concern seems to be more the death of a very large portion of the population, and likely the total societal collapse that precedes it. Humans will be around regardless, in some way or another, but it's not really that important if its just going to be Mad Max for the rest of human existence.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
I'm surprised no one has really caught on yet to what really drives this stuff:

Since the 1970s, Afghanistan has been pummeled and torn by wars and insurgencies. Over the course of these decades, numerous political systems and regimes were tested by the victors, installed but soon to be discarded or to simply vanish. No regime was able to effectively exert control over the entire country. Crumbling from within, power for most of these political or military regimes was limited to Kabul and some provincial capitals.

In the 1980s, in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Afghans rose up in armed resistance against the Soviet army and the Afghan communist proxy regime in Kabul. In the 1990s, the last communist regime collapsed after a UN peace settlement failed to transfer power to the CIA-supported Afghan Mujahideen. In line with Afghanistan’s tradition of tumultuous and violent transfers of power, the Mujahideen leaders failed to agree on a power-sharing arrangement and civil war soon broke out.

During the civil war, no one Mujahideen faction could fully bring Kabul under its control. Instead, the leaders and their sub-commanders started to establish their own fiefdoms in different regions of Afghanistan – battling one another over regional, partisan, religious and ethnic differences. Each fiefdom was created based on the leader’s ethnic identity and the location of his “solidarity group.” Like the ancient city-states, the local commanders of a certain Mujahideen leader would maintain security in the fiefdom, provide protection to its people, and manage its economic activity and justice system.

In each fiefdom, whether it was Hilmand province in the south or Badakhshan in the northeast, the commanders maintained their armed factions and financed their military operations against their regional rivals through the cultivation, processing and trafficking of narcotics – replacing the CIA-supplied bags of cash of the 1980s “holy war” against the Soviet army. During this period of mayhem, the drug industry flourished and these warlords turned into drug-mafia, linking up to organized crime and transnational criminals beyond Afghanistan’s borders in Central Asia, Pakistan and Iran. During the Taliban era, the Afghan drug industry became more organized and monopolized, with the proceeds used to finance the operation of the Taliban movement until a ban issued in 2000 by its leader Mullah Omar.

Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the United States invaded Afghanistan and removed the Taliban from power. As part of the U.S. military strategy, the warlords who had failed to resist the Taliban movement were reassembled. It was the 1980s redux, but this time they were provided with bags full of American dollars and U.S. aerial and military ground support to fight the Taliban. After the fall of Taliban in late 2001, these warlords were called the “heroes of Jihad and champions of peace.” Following the Bonn Conference, they became ministers, governors, commissioners and senior officers in the Interim Authority and Transitional Administration of Afghanistan. After the first “democratic transition of power” and the establishment of a newly elected government and parliament, the warlords filled key security positions, became members of parliament, and formed political opposition to the government. Over these years, they became rich on the largesse of the U.S. military and other contractors. They created construction and logistics companies that were contracted by the United States government agencies in Afghanistan. At the same time, and starting as early as 2002, they used their official positions in the government to immerse themselves in the cultivation and trafficking of narcotics drugs and other illicit economic activities.

There is no doubt that Afghanistan’s international reputation has been grievously harmed by the gravity of opium poppy cultivation and narcotics trafficking. Illicit drugs and its trafficking in Afghanistan pose a very real threat to the survival of Afghan state, and to regional and international security. The risks are not confined by the borders of Afghanistan. The opium cultivation and trade in Afghanistan directly finances the operations of international terrorism. In the wake of the NATO and U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the end of combat mission, if the Afghan government continues to disregard the extent to which its roots lie in the narcotics industry, Afghanistan will ultimately be a failed state, with most of the warlords – many of them incumbent government officials – recreating their 1990s regional narco-fiefdoms.

Villas, Guns, Uniforms and Toyota Land Cruisers

The threat of a drug industry in Afghanistan is palpable and disheartening. Over a 12-year period (2002 to 2014), the country has reportedly cultivated 1,868,000 hectares of land and produced a total of 69,200 metric tons of opium poppy. In 2013 and 2014, the cultivation and production of opium poppy in Afghanistan reached record levels despite millions of dollars spent by the international community on eradication, alternative livelihoods, and law enforcement programs.

In Afghanistan, many sub-national government officials, particularly law enforcement agents, in key strategic border provinces and border crossing points, are inextricably associated with drug trafficking networks and transnational criminals. Given Afghanistan’s precarious situation, the central government in Kabul does not have the ability to oversee and monitor these rogue elements either in provincial capitals or at border crossing points. Many of these government officials have been able to establish their own networks of protection and patronage at the epicenter of the Afghan government, making them immune from any types of incursions intended to eradicate corruption or bad governance in certain provinces. Consequently, they continue to be involved in drug trafficking. Some of these former or incumbent sub-national government officials are warlords, maintaining their own militia and armed groups in several provinces throughout Afghanistan. Over the past 13 years, the government has systematically failed to disarm their armed groups or to dismantle their drug trafficking networks; indeed, the government, for the most part, has facilitated their growth and strength. While Taliban and other anti-government elements provide protection to the farmers to cultivate poppies in those areas that they control, in many border provinces government officials and their networks have facilitated the trafficking of narcotic drugs from Afghanistan. Many claim that the involvement of senior government officials in the drugs is more serious than the Taliban’s own connection with drug cultivation and production.

Many respondents confirmed that most of the officials who are deeply involved in illicit drugs in key border provinces are attached to the Afghanistan Border Police, Afghanistan Customs Department, and provincial police headquarters. A number of other respondents also confirmed that many officials in the local court system were also involved in narcotic drug trafficking. The indirect interaction among the rogue government elements and their networks at the sub-national level, drug traffickers, warlords, and the Taliban insurgents inside Afghanistan has sustained a cycle of violence, extremism and corruption.

In the main “opium-cultivating provinces” in the southern and western regions of Afghanistan, some of the senior law enforcement agents who are heavily involved in the trafficking of drugs and illicit economic activities have been appointed through patronage-based networks linked with highly ranked Afghan government security officials at the national level. The relationship between these officials at the sub-national level and their patrons at the higher levels is sustained through a lucrative reciprocity. The officers share the substantial amounts of money that they make from drug trafficking and other illicit economic activities with their patrons and the patrons provide job security and protection from other foes inside the government machinery at the center. A senior Afghan police officer, in charge of the operations of specialized counter narcotics units in Afghanistan’s international airports and land border crossing points, confirmed to The Diplomat that in those provinces where drug cultivation and trafficking is extensive, you have to be part of a patronage network and involved in corruption to be appointed to a mid-level position:

“If you are to be appointed as the border crossing point commander in Spinboldak [a border crossing point in Kandahar province in southern Afghanistan], first you have to be involved in drugs, then you need to have friendly relations with the strongmen of Spinboldak and senior officials of the ministry of interior affairs and last but not least, you need to make sure that senior officials in Kandahar and Kabul get at least 50 percent of the illegal money that you make.”

During the past decade, senior government officials at the sub-national level and drug traffickers have managed to form and strengthen their own networks, stretching back to senior political officials at the center of Afghan state institutions (line ministries of the executive branch, judiciary, and parliament). Some police units and officers that were supported by the international community to fight drug trafficking either lost their jobs or were shifted to less important, administrative positions. One police officer who used to work for a counter narcotics intelligence unit in northeastern Afghanistan believed that drug-lords have the power to sack any government official or police officer involved in counter narcotics:

“In the northeast region of Afghanistan, I served as an officer in the provincial counter narcotics police unit. Based on a tip off from the international mentors my unit arrested an individual who was trafficking 10 kilograms of heroin and 15 kilograms of hashish. The next morning, I received an anonymous call. He told me that my unit had to release the individual and the contraband that we had seized otherwise I would be sacked within a week. Luckily, I was not sacked but within three days, was shifted to another unit in the counter narcotics police HQ. When I asked why I was shifted, they informed me that I was not productive in that province and that I was making trouble.”

The Narco-State of Afghanistan | The Diplomat

It was the biggest drug bust in the Middle East. In June 1989, after a fast-tracked trial, a judge in Egypt convicted 19 defendants of capital crimes in the Reef Star case. Kayed Berro—then living on a student visa in Orange County, CA, where he was completing a Masters’ Degree in Engineering at U.S.C.—and his father Mohammad, the owner of a successful hotel on the Israeli-Lebanese border, were both sentenced to death in absentia. By staying on the lam and later slipping back into Lebanon, they managed to escape capital punishment. Once a sophisticated but strictly capitalist heroin player, Kayed Berro is now, some 25 years later, believed by United States intelligence and counter-narcotics authorities to be an important financier for the terrorist group Hezbollah.

Indeed, as U.S. law enforcement agencies now acknowledge, narcoterrorism is the face of 21st-century organized crime. Far-flung groups like Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Hamas, Al-Shabab in Somalia, and Boko Haram in Nigeria are two-headed monsters: hybrids of highly structured global drug-trafficking cartels and politically motivated Islamic terrorists. Increasingly, the sale of narcotics is the first-line of financing for acts of terror; the March 11, 2004, coordinated train bombings in Madrid that killed 191 people cost relatively little—an estimated $70,000—and were financed through the sale of hashish and ecstasy. Al-Qaeda spokesmen immediately claimed responsibility for the bombings.

ISIS, perhaps the greatest current threat to stability in the Middle East, is also engaged in narcoterrorism. Counter-narcotics experts tell me that ISIS now receives a sizable amount of its revenue through narcotics, specifically through drugs manufactured at labs they’ve seized in the Syrian city of Aleppo. These are former legitimate pharmaceutical manufacturing plants, containing the chemicals and equipment necessary to make high-grade, Breaking Bad-style methamphetamine that can then be distributed throughout the Middle East and Europe.

According to Edward Follis, the DEA’s former country attaché in Kabul, and the coauthor of my latest book, The Dark Art, ISIS is currently “trying to expand its portfolios just like you or I would be diversifying the types of stocks and bonds we hold. They’re getting into human trafficking, sale of pirated information technology, the illegal oil trade, and now drugs to try to diversify their revenue stream.”

Indeed, almost all terrorist groups in the world receive some of their funding from the illegal narcotics trade, whether it’s from sales of drugs or by levying “fees” on the farmers that grow the plants.

Despite our best efforts and the millions spent by the United States and other democracies in counter-narcotics funding, the drug crisis is at an all-time high in Afghanistan. Opium cultivation continues to spike, year after year, and heroin production accounts for approximately $3 billion, or 15 percent of the Afghan GDP.

Still, amid all the dispiriting headlines, there remains cause for cautious optimism, given the major policy shift in Washington toward treating Islamic narcoterrorists as we would Mafia bosses, targeting them for arrest and extradition to face justice in the U.S. federal court system, rather than, as the CIA often did, allowing them to continue their drug-trafficking operations as long as they were willing to work for us as classified intel sources.

ISIS and the New Face of Narcoterrorism – Tablet Magazine
 

gsa

Well-Known Member
To be fair, I'm not sure the extinction of humans is much of a concern. The amount of Raid you'd have to spray on the Earth to take us out would be a lot. But, the general concern seems to be more the death of a very large portion of the population, and likely the total societal collapse that precedes it. Humans will be around regardless, in some way or another, but it's not really that important if its just going to be Mad Max for the rest of human existence.

Not necessarily. There are many ways that climate change could contribute to human extinction. Moreover, extinction events take time. If climate change rendered vast swaths of the Earth uninhabitable, wiped out a number of resources humans depended upon and was coupled with the outbreak of disease and war, it could easily do the trick. It would not happen overnight, but geological time is deep time, and 2,000 years is nothing.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
Not necessarily. There are many ways that climate change could contribute to human extinction. Moreover, extinction events take time. If climate change rendered vast swaths of the Earth uninhabitable, wiped out a number of resources humans depended upon and was coupled with the outbreak of disease and war, it could easily do the trick. It would not happen overnight, but geological time is deep time, and 2,000 years is nothing.

That got me curious, so I looked at the fastest extinction event, which was apparently the End Permian extinction, which, according to Wiki, is credited for wiping out 96% of all living things 252 million years ago, and according to Scientific American took 60,000 years.

Apparently:
"There is evidence for from one to three distinct pulses, or phases, of extinction.[7][11][12][13] There are several proposed mechanisms for the extinctions; the earlier phase was probably due to gradual environmental change, while the latter phase has been argued to be due to a catastrophic event. Suggested mechanisms for the latter include one or more large bolide impact events, massive volcanism, coal or gas fires and explosions from the Siberian Traps,[14] and a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by sudden release of methane from the sea floor due to methane clathrate dissociation or methane-producing microbes known as methanogens;[15] possible contributing gradual changes include sea-level change, increasing anoxia, increasing aridity, and a shift in ocean circulation driven by climate change."

So it's possible. But we are talking some serious climate change my friend.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gsa

gsa

Well-Known Member
That got me curious, so I looked at the fastest extinction event, which was apparently the End Permian extinction, which, according to Wiki, is credited for wiping out 96% of all living things 252 million years ago, and according to Scientific American took 60,000 years.

Apparently:
"There is evidence for from one to three distinct pulses, or phases, of extinction.[7][11][12][13] There are several proposed mechanisms for the extinctions; the earlier phase was probably due to gradual environmental change, while the latter phase has been argued to be due to a catastrophic event. Suggested mechanisms for the latter include one or more large bolide impact events, massive volcanism, coal or gas fires and explosions from the Siberian Traps,[14] and a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by sudden release of methane from the sea floor due to methane clathrate dissociation or methane-producing microbes known as methanogens;[15] possible contributing gradual changes include sea-level change, increasing anoxia, increasing aridity, and a shift in ocean circulation driven by climate change."

So it's possible. But we are talking some serious climate change my friend.


It is. But there's no consensus on the duration of extinction events and the geological evidence is a shaky guestimate given the fossil record. Also, mass extinction events are not measuring a species in isolation, but the cumulative impact on a number of different species. Species that presumably did not go to war with one another over resources, and without the capacity to nuke themselves into annihilation.
 

dust1n

Zindīq
It is. But there's no consensus on the duration of extinction events and the geological evidence is a shaky guestimate given the fossil record. Also, mass extinction events are not measuring a species in isolation, but the cumulative impact on a number of different species. Species that presumably did not go to war with one another over resources, and without the capacity to nuke themselves into annihilation.

This was the source I had found for the estimate:

"Using new tools and models—including a fresh analysis of rock formations in China—the researchers determined that the extinction took only about 60,000 years. That’s incredibly quick by geological standards, and is more than 10 times faster than previous estimates.

The report is in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. [Seth D. Burgess, Samuel Bowring and Shu-zhong Shen, High-precision timeline for Earth’s most severe extinction]

Study author Samuel Bowring from M.I.T. says they can’t yet compare the speed of the previous extinction to the extinction rates caused by human activities today. But, he says, their research is starting to help reveal how past environmental changes that influenced extinctions—such as levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—compare to the changes in those levels seen today. In the midst of what many call the sixth extinction."

Biggest Mass Extinction Was Fastest, Too - Scientific American

I haven't listened to the podcast or anything.
 

gsa

Well-Known Member
This was the source I had found for the estimate:

"Using new tools and models—including a fresh analysis of rock formations in China—the researchers determined that the extinction took only about 60,000 years. That’s incredibly quick by geological standards, and is more than 10 times faster than previous estimates.

The report is in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. [Seth D. Burgess, Samuel Bowring and Shu-zhong Shen, High-precision timeline for Earth’s most severe extinction]

Study author Samuel Bowring from M.I.T. says they can’t yet compare the speed of the previous extinction to the extinction rates caused by human activities today. But, he says, their research is starting to help reveal how past environmental changes that influenced extinctions—such as levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—compare to the changes in those levels seen today. In the midst of what many call the sixth extinction."

Biggest Mass Extinction Was Fastest, Too - Scientific American

I haven't listened to the podcast or anything.

Right. But the problem is this, from the article itself: "The extinction occurred between 251.941 ± 0.037 and 251.880 ± 0.031 Mya, an interval of 60 ± 48 ka." KA being kiloannum, or a thousand years. So this is a range that is being reported as a solid figure. If we take the high and low estimates as setting the boundaries of the range, I read that as an effective range of 12,000 to 108,000 years, for an event that wiped out 96% of the species. I'm not a geologist and might be getting the range wrong since it doesn't seem to square with the MYA estimate but my point is threefold: 1) these are only precision estimates within the context of deep or geological time, which means that they are vast beyond most human perception and comprehension and 2) they are measuring mass extinction not species-level extinction, and 3) they cannot take into account human behavior or really anything about humanity. Humanity has the ability to accelerate or slow the extinction process.

But very interesting.
 
Top