Almost all arguments about ancient history are probabilistic and qualified rather than the simple reporting of objective facts with absolute certainty, and this is especially true in this field. If you can't grasp this point, no wonder you are so credulous on this issue.
Your "rational, open minded" argument: "Because actual historians need to make qualified statements, we should take it on faith that the religious apologists who state things with absolute certainty are right and the fact they agree with each other means there is a consensus."
I've told you a dozen times, there is probably a broad historicity to it, but most of the details are made up.
The Quran is an early text and is probably at least mostly from Muhammad.
The secondary literature is much less reliable, and numeorus things have been left out regarding the context of the Late Antique Middle East.
Early "proto-Muslims" fought alongside Jews and Christians in the conquests. "Islam" as a reified confessional identity seems to have emerged and developed 70+ years later. Like Christianity, it didn't come out of a bottle fully formed.
I don't trust any occasions of revelation, most if not all are likely fabricated to explain the Quran. Early exegetes didn't know how to interpret much of the Quran, later ones did based on newly discovered stories that happily explain everything. Many of these stories, including the ones with the 'most reliable' chains of narration seem obvious fabrications.
I don't trust much of the Sirah as the further we get from Muhammad, the more detailed and miraculous the Sirah gets and the more theologians agree on the details. This is how orthodoxies are formed out of disparate traditions.
The letter to Heraclius probably didn't exist, the Banu Qurayza 'occasion of revelation' is probably made up to explain the Quran and act as a Biblical trope. A general memory of conflict with Jewish tribes (possibly in a Roman-Persian context), becomes a pious myth, etc.
So no need to continue the silly ruse of pretending I haven't addressed this
Beyond that you have to address individual points, and often there isn't much evidence either way. So if you want a facile yes/no answer you will need to ask the fundamentalists, ideologues or those suffering the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Now, why do you trust the religious narrative as actual history? Previously you said you believed it because it was" historical consensus". I've now proved without a doubt that this is not true, and that it is widely disputed among mainstream historians.
So have you revised your opinions based on the new evidence, or do you still assume the theologians are right and the secular historians are wrong?