It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset

[Quetzal]

n a stunning upset, Democrat Conor Lamb won an incredibly close special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, beating out Republican candidate Rick Saccone in a deeply conservative district the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated R+11.

The race stretched into Wednesday midday, when CNN reported Lamb was in the lead with 627 votes, with 100 percent of precincts reporting. State law does not mandate a recount in district-level elections.

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset

Democrats pick up momentum early after a victory in Alabama with a victory in Pennsylvania. What do you think? Flukes? Beginning of the next political movement? A snoozer of a headline? Do we care? Why/why not?

 

[Subduction Zone]

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset

Democrats pick up momentum early after a victory in Alabama with a victory in Pennsylvania. What do you think? Flukes? Beginning of the next political movement? A snoozer of a headline? Do we care? Why/why not?

Bad news for Republicans all around. Even if the Republican candidate had won it would have been a "loss" for them. This is a race that should have been a slam dunk. It looks like unless the Republicans have a major win or if the Democrats have an epic screw up the House will certainly be Republican, and even though relatively few Republican senators are up for reelection this time around I would say that even the Senate is threatened.

Hmmm, wars are always good for the party in power, at least at the outset. What guilty party can we attack?

 

[David1967]

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset

Democrats pick up momentum early after a victory in Alabama with a victory in Pennsylvania. What do you think? Flukes? Beginning of the next political movement? A snoozer of a headline? Do we care? Why/why not?

Just the natural ebb and flow of politics.

 

[It Aint Necessarily So]

Yes, bad news for the Republicans

The significance of this upset victory is a little harder to discern than it would have been had the last incumbent not resigned in disgrace following a sex scandal. What we want to see is just how much the combination of Trump's chaotic presidency and an indolent Republican Congress will cost Republicans running in the fall. Some of the fall in votes for the Republican candidates in 2016 and 2018 probably reflects distaste over the scandal, which involved a married, pro-life Republican who impregnated his mistress and recommended an abortion for her.

Here are some outcomes for House special elections last year:

• Tom Price won Georgia's 6th district last November by 21%, and was then made Secretary of Health and Human Services. A special election the following June was won by the Republican candidate by 4%.

• Mike Pompeo won Kansas' 4th district beating the Democratic candidate by 31% before being named head of the CIA. In the following April, the Republican won the special election by 6%.

• Mick Mulvaney won South Carolina's 5th congressional district in 2016 by 21% before being tapped to become director of the Office of Management and Budget. Republican Ralph Norman won the special election in June by 3%

• Ryan Zinke vacated his House seat in Montana to become Secretary of the Interior, a seat which he won by a 16% margin. His successor won the same seat by a little over 6% the following May.

There was an outlier special election in Utah last November where the present incumbent got 32% of the vote compared to the 35% his predecessor collected.

 

[esmith]

Well the Democrat was a Marine, he ran on the 2nd Amendment, tariffs were OK, tax plan was good for the economy. Sounds like a Republican running as a Democrat, and I do believe that the Republican supported the "right to work" and this is a heavy union district.

 

[Twilight Hue]

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset

Democrats pick up momentum early after a victory in Alabama with a victory in Pennsylvania. What do you think? Flukes? Beginning of the next political movement? A snoozer of a headline? Do we care? Why/why not?

This stuff flip flops all the time it's nothing new.

 

[Skwim]

ALL RIGHT!​

 

[esmith]

ALL RIGHT!​

So you are OK with his stance on the 2nd Amendment. Glad to see you have finally came around.

 

[ADigitalArtist]

Just the natural ebb and flow of politics.

This is pretty significant as an ebb or flow, as it's been like 15 years since last ebb or flow. Even longer with the Alabama Senate race. There's some not insignificant turnover happening.

 

[metis]

I think that this is one big lesson for the Democrats in that it is generally best not to try and micro-manage candidates running as Democrats at either the state of local level by having some sort of litmus test. For example, if the party continues to only be "Pro-Choice", then they shouldn't complain when they lose the "Pro-Life" vote that otherwise might be inclined to vote for their candidates.​

To put it another way, a "big-tent" approach beats losing.

[I don't know what I did to offset the above post-- ok, so I'm low-tech ]

 

[Skwim]

So you are OK with his stance on the 2nd Amendment. Glad to see you have finally came around.

Being a Democrat is far more important, no matter what his stance on the 2nd Amendment may be.

.

 

[David1967]

This is pretty significant as an ebb or flow, as it's been like 15 years since last ebb or flow. Even longer with the Alabama Senate race. There's some not insignificant turnover happening.

Perhaps. Anytime a party, be it Dem or GOP has control over the white house and both houses of congress for very long, its not unusual for the next election to see the rise of the opposing party. Why? IMHO when people see that those in the majority don't make their dreams come true, they throw them out and try the other side. Of course, that's just my opinion.

 

[LuisDantas]

[I don't know what I did to offset the above post-- ok, so I'm low-tech ]

You used the "Indent" function of the Rich Text Editor.

There is an "outdent" button next to it that can undo that effect. And, of course, there is "undo" proper as well.

 

[LuisDantas]

So you are OK with his stance on the 2nd Amendment. Glad to see you have finally came around.

Incremental change.

 

[sun rise]

Demanding that a candidate pass every bullet point is political correctness at its worse and notably has led to losses when a relatively moderate Republican was defeated in a primary by a bullet-point fanatic. I hope the Democratic party does not go down the same stupid path - let's leave it for the right to do.

The key point is the swing between Trump's vote and the special election vote. In 2010 that kind of swing involving Obama predicted the outcome very well. Back then Democrats claimed it was due to poor candidates or something special. And guess what, Republicans are doing the exact same thing today. I expect the result this year will be the same as 2010 only with the left winning.

And yes, I agree people here do tend to keep the pendulum moving back and forth.

 

[metis]

You used the "Indent" function of the Rich Text Editor.

There is an "outdent" button next to it that can undo that effect. And, of course, there is "undo" proper as well.

Are you speaking Portuguese to me?

 

[YmirGF]

Impressive, the Dems managed to not screw something up. Neato.

 

[Quetzal]

Impressive, the Dems managed to not screw something up. Neato.

SHHHHHH!!!! They will hear you!

 

[Father Heathen]

Well the Democrat was a Marine, he ran on the 2nd Amendment, tariffs were OK, tax plan was good for the economy. Sounds like a Republican running as a Democrat, and I do believe that the Republican supported the "right to work" and this is a heavy union district.

What do you mean by "ran on the 2nd Amendment". I never heard of any serious democratic candidate who actually sought to appeal the 2nd amendment.
And weren't tariffs traditionally considered a democrat thing to begin with, and it's only because Trump had suggested them that conservatives mysteriously become cool with them overnight?
And what does the hell being a Marine have to do with political affiliation?

 

[esmith]

What do you mean by "ran on the 2nd Amendment". I never heard of any serious democratic candidate who actually sought to appeal the 2nd amendment.
And weren't tariffs traditionally considered a democrat thing to begin with, and it's only because Trump had suggested them that conservatives mysteriously become cool with them overnight?
And what does the hell being a Marine have to do with political affiliation?

Us Patriots like Marines