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New Hampshire primary predictions

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Something I think will happen is a surge of unaffiliated voters heading to the Republican side. Because the dems are such a boring done deal.
Sanders will take at least 60% to Clinton's 40%. If anything, low turnout in the dem side will benefit Sanders.
On the rep side all those voters will benefit the middle of the road candidates. So Trump will underperform, winning with 25%, while Rubio edges out Cruz by a bit for second. Kasich will also gain from this, possibly staying up in double digits.
Tom
 

Taylor Seraphim

Angel of Reason
Something I think will happen is a surge of unaffiliated voters heading to the Republican side. Because the dems are such a boring done deal.
Sanders will take at least 60% to Clinton's 40%. If anything, low turnout in the dem side will benefit Sanders.
On the rep side all those voters will benefit the middle of the road candidates. So Trump will underperform, winning with 25%, while Rubio edges out Cruz by a bit for second. Kasich will also gain from this, possibly staying up in double digits.
Tom

Actually most independents in the county have been heading towards Bernie.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Actually most independents in the county have been heading towards Bernie.
Trump and Sanders have something in common. Their support is deep, but narrow. More passionate than most people. The unaffiliated voters who are confident that Sanders will win can then go vote against Trump or Cruz and give a boost to the moderate Republican candidates, like Kasich. I think a lot of that will happen.
But then, I thought Trump would be out by Christmas. What do I know?
Tom
 

Sultan Of Swing

Well-Known Member
Trump and Sanders have something in common. Their support is deep, but narrow. More passionate than most people. The unaffiliated voters who are confident that Sanders will win can then go vote against Trump or Cruz and give a boost to the moderate Republican candidates, like Kasich. I think a lot of that will happen.
But then, I thought Trump would be out by Christmas. What do I know?
Tom
That would be hilarious if all the Bernie supporters think a Bernie win is guaranteed, head on over and vote for a Republican moderate and let Hillary win.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
That would be hilarious if all the Bernie supporters think a Bernie win is guaranteed, head on over and vote for a Republican moderate and let Hillary win.
I don't believe Bernie is in danger. His support is the passionate folks. It is the unaffiliated voters who might have swung to Clinton who will be across the street voting against Trump.
Tom
 

esmith

Veteran Member
Something I think will happen is a surge of unaffiliated voters heading to the Republican side. Because the dems are such a boring done deal.
Sanders will take at least 60% to Clinton's 40%. If anything, low turnout in the dem side will benefit Sanders.
On the rep side all those voters will benefit the middle of the road candidates. So Trump will underperform, winning with 25%, while Rubio edges out Cruz by a bit for second. Kasich will also gain from this, possibly staying up in double digits.
Tom
Sounds bout right
 

ShivaFan

Satyameva Jayate
Premium Member
The state of the election as of tonight.

Right now, Trump is beating the second placed field which is not second place but collectively last place, by more points than Sanders is beating Hillary by, as Sanders is sitting on Hillary's too big to fail tummy and just knocked her breath out.

Some lessons learned as a result of the New Hampshire Republican primary.

1. Counting lawn signs and orchestrated machinations behind the lawn sign politics are as phony as the unemployment stats and mean little as to actual outcome.

2. In the age of the internet, social media and 401k balance junkies, that the least likely candidate is as much defined by neo-cons in the media as the likelihood that their amnesty guy is anointed by the money of the Chamber of Commerce Super PACs and campaign ads played during a Shepard Smith broadcast no one remembers except that it was annoying.

3. Rush Limbaugh is as much ones wise and observing father as Mark Levin is your screeching mother in law that you must bow to her every word or else you get even more of an annoying earful.

4. Interviewed and declared last minute decision voters are about as relevant to outcome as a guy declaring in an interview with Dopey Boy Bowtie with a mic and standing in front of a frosty field outside a school in New Hampshire on FOX, the interviewed case in point telling Bowtie and mic that never even ONCE has he gone into the ladies bathroom by mistake and then rushed out when two gals walked in.

5. How high your poll numbers go in a Republican primary is more determined by how high you say you will build the wall along the Mexican border, and is not determined by how loud you yell praise Jesus or never use cuss words in front of Barbara Bush.

6. A Chamber of Commerce Cable Network operative attacking a Republican front runner for not running a, quote, positive campaign, end quote, while at that very moment the voters are voting for a candidate who is trying to turnaround a national crisis of failure by the current regime while the nation is on a war footing and threatened by terrorists and an invasion of foreigners, the, quote, not running a positive campaign, end quote, attack is about as an effective establishment phony news agenda as saying positive things about Paul Ryan and hugging an illegal alien and saying your are not a serious candidate unless you take money from the pro-amnesty interests.

7. In other words, in reference to number 6 above, a positive campaign in 2016 means towing the Republican esrablishment line or you will be attacked for not running a positive campaign, of which such an attack is totally pathetic, and which if you were ever foolish enough to run a positive campaign which translates into attacking Trump that this means you lose by 10 points or more for being whimpy. The lesson learned is Megyn the Mullah Kelly and company cannot win one for the establishment even if she cut off all her hair bald to try and get folks to listen to her agenda to attack Trump as her career move.

8. Caucuses need to be outlawed and replaced with the primary vote process.

This is starting to look like a blow out by Trump and Sanders. North Carolina next.

The Republican establishment said after Iowa, Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks Presidents.

We have one on FOX right now,who regrets saying that.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Well, the Pubs in NH are providing some interesting results. At this time not quite half the precincts have reported, so things could change.
Trump is blowing them away. Close to 35%, nearly as much as the next three.
Bush is keeping his candidacy going. He is duking it out for third with Rubio and Cruz, all around 11%.
Kasich is solidly in second a little over 16%. That is the biggest surprise to me. A pleasant one, as I see him as the more moderate of the group.
Tom
 

Sultan Of Swing

Well-Known Member
People were speculating Trump's poll numbers won't translate into actual votes. Guess they were wrong.

Is Trump an unstoppable steamroller now, or will he fizzle out in a few weeks?

Imagine Jeb Bush won by 20% in a race of 7 candidates. The media would be saying the race is over, the other candidates should drop out. Not hearing that much when it's Trump though.
 

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
Trump and Sanders. Populism is alive and well.

Or at least, alive. With Trump, I don't think it's well.
 

Taylor Seraphim

Angel of Reason
Much more. The next two include lots of nonwhite voters. She should kick serious butt.
She is heavily favored in 8 of the next 9. Going all the way to June.
Things could change. But it will be very dramatic if they do.
Tom

By the way I was saying she is more populist (authoritarian) than Sanders.

Which to me is a bad thing.
 
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