NFL 2015: mid-season through the Super Bowl

[Quetzal]

Well, we've had Super Bowl winners who weren't terrific at the position, coupled with others who were and/or defenses that could compensate. Game managers can win along with qbs who can do enough without penalizing their team, like Griese, Ben the first time, Brad Johnson, Hostetler, Dilfer, Namath. But were any of them that green going in?

He may develop into a fine qb. He certainly has shown flashes, but he's not ready to challenge the best defenses and coordinators in a playoff run with enough games between now and then to see the book on him. No, at best he can help assure Denver a spot at the table while everyone hopes Peyton gets healthy enough to plant.

Ultimately, I blame Gary for this one. His scheme was ill suited to their talent and got Manning hammered early and often, which led to early breakdowns of an older body. If he'd started Peyton under center, worked in more of the running and fine tuned a healthier defense than last year I think we'd be in a much different place considering the Broncos. As it stands, I just don't know. It feels like the parade may have passed. Though on the up side, if Peyton could get healthy enough to return in the playoffs, after the off week and made the last run to glory, how great would that be as NFL stories go?

I will say that I think this will be it for Peyton. I hope he rides it all the way to a ring, but after this season... he has to think about hanging up the spikes, right?

Let's switch to the Patriots... Tom Brady places a heavy emphasis on the officiating in regards to their loss to Denver. What do you think? Personally, I find it pretty ironic the guy is trying to take the moral high ground given the shenanigans last season... but that's just me.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Ultimately, I blame Gary for this one. His scheme was ill suited to their talent and got Manning hammered early and often, which led to early breakdowns of an older body. If he'd started Peyton under center, worked in more of the running and fine tuned a healthier defense than last year I think we'd be in a much different place considering the Broncos. As it stands, I just don't know. It feels like the parade may have passed. Though on the up side, if Peyton could get healthy enough to return in the playoffs, after the off week and made the last run to glory, how great would that be as NFL stories go?

Question from a long way away...how easy is it to get Manning to play under center these days? Everything I hear is that he prefers pistol or shotgun, which obviously doesn't suit CJ Anderson as much.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Let's switch to the Patriots... Tom Brady places a heavy emphasis on the officiating in regards to their loss to Denver. What do you think? Personally, I find it pretty ironic the guy is trying to take the moral high ground given the shenanigans last season... but that's just me.

I never thought about it in those terms. But some of the calls he was complaining about were so far up the field, and he was on his back, so I have no idea how he could even have an opinion. Mind you, I thought the Gronk and the Chung calls were rubbish, so maybe he's just a savant.

 

[Town Heretic]

I will say that I think this will be it for Peyton. I hope he rides it all the way to a ring, but after this season... he has to think about hanging up the spikes, right?

He's had a remarkably healthy career, but yeah, the wheels are starting to come off and he needs to think about how much pain he wants to live with. I'd say any good post season showing would be sufficient to dot the "i". I mean, he already beat the chocker nonsense with his Super Bowl run. At worst you can say he's a version of the Atlanta Braves and wonder how that much talent produced one one big game win, but I think the answer is waiting in the season he went down with an injury, the team managed a couple of wins and everyone short of the owner lost their positions.

Let's switch to the Patriots... Tom Brady places a heavy emphasis on the officiating in regards to their loss to Denver. What do you think? Personally, I find it pretty ironic the guy is trying to take the moral high ground given the shenanigans last season... but that's just me.

I think he's just angry and embarrassed to come out with a loss against a previously one dimensional team minus the most important part of that particular. Being beaten by a team fielding a backup has to sting. I'd file that under "embarrassed competitor" and not think much more about it.

Question from a long way away...how easy is it to get Manning to play under center these days? Everything I hear is that he prefers pistol or shotgun, which obviously doesn't suit CJ Anderson as much.

It's problematic. He was great at selling the play action pass in the old days, but his legs and, I suspect, fear of the exposure that leaves an aging frame has him more comfortable in the shotgun. If I have to choose between a healthier and more productive Peyton and CJ it's not a real choice.

The tragedy of this season is the lack of necessity in the change. Peyton tried to play hurt in a SB and couldn't really step through consistently. That's all that happened. The powers should have returned that offense to him and recognized they'd be playing with a better defense this year (so I like that move) with last year's injuries off the board. They overthought and paid for it.

Hopefully it hasn't cost Peyton a last hurrah. If he can't come back this year you can bet he'll be back next with anyone willing to let him run his offense, if only to make a point.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Hopefully it hasn't cost Peyton a last hurrah. If he can't come back this year you can bet he'll be back next with anyone willing to let him run his offense, if only to make a point.

I hope he can come back this year, but I don't like the option of playing on next year. His arm strength just doesn't appear to be there, and his time taken to get the ball out of hands is on the rise. That's a bad combination. I suspect injuries would be a fact of life moving forwards, so any plan to get healthy and then play better worries me.

I could see him doing better in the right system, with a very strong offensive line being a prime consideration, but...I'm dubious he's helping his legacy at this point. On the other hand, if he likes playing, then more power to him. You're a long time retired.

 

[The Emperor of Mankind]

I'm just glad Denver snapped New England's perfect streak like a kit-kat. It's getting boring watching the Pats win almost every single game every year. And, frankly, Belichick is a dour old sod who can't seem to crack a smile when his team perform well - which is all the time!

I still don't understand how 'offensive pass interference' works. It's not something I can get my head around.

 

[Town Heretic]

Oh all right then, I'll do it.

Week 13

1. GB @ Det: oh what a difference a few weeks make. This write-off suddenly becomes a pause. A Santa pause? No, there's no gift giving here. The Pack is a visiting 3 road fav. 62% of the betting public says, "Why not?" with 38% responding, "Because." Ho, ho, ho. Detroit. They're playing better and have been for a while. If they could beat the Pack on the road why not at home?

2. Atl @ TB: hate this game like the Grinch hates Who Hash, but a pick'em 2.5 line favoring Tampa shouldn't leave anyone with indigestion for swallowing the "this is the week" Falcon narrative. The split (yea/nay on the line) is about even with thirty-nine and a half foot poles coming out in droves...I'm taking Atlanta because someone has to win.

3. Hou @ Buf: the Bills are a 2.5 fav at home. The split is 58/42 in favor. I think it's another heart breaker. I'll take the home team in cold weather over the visiting Texans. Buffalo.

4. SF @ Chi: Chicago is a confident 6.5 home favorite with the split in support of it 77/33. Should be a no brainer. I'd have taken it at seven....see what I did there?

5. Cin @ Cle: Cin is a 6.5 favorite and the split says "Yea" by a 90/10 margin. Heck, you can get over 50% offering ten now. Looks like the over/under on Manzel's bar tab would have been a more interesting bet. Bengals.

6. Jac @ Ten: the Titans keep burning me, but...this week they're a 2.5 home favorite. The split? 66/44 against. So, naturally, I'm staying with the Titans for the upset. Why: They're pretty evenly matched and Jac won the last one in a low scoring contest at home. On the road I figure it's more likely the other guy's turn.

7. Arz @ SL: The Cardinals are a 5.5 favorite with a whopping 81/19 split in agreement. I like them by eight or better, so I'm not arguing.

8. Bal @ Mia: having to think about this game is like being dragged into a women's apparel store during Christmas shopping as a kid so your mom can try on blouses while you stare longingly through the front window at the Toys R Us across the way...anyway, Miami is a 4.5 favorite and the split on this one is running "who the hell cares?" dead even. I don't like either team by anything so I'm taking Baltimore.

9. Sea @ Min: now this one is interesting. So interesting Vegas said, "Oh no we don't" and gave this a scintillating .5 line in favor of the home Vikings. When Vegas is trying to pull you in with all of a half point...you're better off putting everything on red at the roulette table. This split is a neither naughty nor nice 48/52 in favor. I like both teams, so I went into the numbers for help. It wasn't any.

Okay, Wilson found his sea(hawk) legs last week and AP will be bringing it, but I think I believe more in Seattle's ability to generate defensive heat and find some running room than I do the Vikings. The difference is at qb and it's just enough to tip this one and me in favor of Seattle.

10. Jets @ Gia: the line is a curious 1.5 fav for the visitor with around 60% of those looking on going "Wha? Really?" I know the Giants haven't been the model of consistency, but I like Eli and crew by better than a fg this week.

11. Den @ SD: Broncos are a 4.5 visiting fav. The split is 75/25 in favor. Sure, but an unproven qb on the road always makes me nervous.

12. KC @ Oak: head stratching 2.5 edge for visiting KC has me wondering what Vegas thinks it knows here. The split? 62/38 for...almost a surprise. I like KC going away and have it closer to a 29-21 final on the shy end. Now if Oak ignites offensively, this could end up a shoot out and a fg, which still leaves me with KC. Plus, KC will be wearing their Christmas colors. . .

13. Phi @ NE: Pats are a 9.5 home favorite. The split is 74/26 with. I know, it's a no-brainer, right? Or is it...I'm less sure. I'll take this as the upset by points.

14. Car @ NO: the Panthers continue their march toward perfection as a 7.5 road favorite, visiting a woeful Saints defense. The split is 66/44 in favor. The Saints have one of the best qbs of the modern era and that's always going to give you a puncher's chance, but the Panther defense is stout and the offense has found points aplenty itself. I'm going to start giving Carolina the credit they're sort of due.

15. Ind @ Pit: hate this game. The Steelers are a 6.5 home favorite and the split is about even. I'm going with my Colts to at least keep it closer and make this one a fg or two game.

16. Dal @ Was: Washington is an irksome 3.5 favorite against the perpetually wounded Cowboys...a double irony win for the home team? Why not. I'll take Dallas to keep it close enough to kill the gamblers with the half point gleam in their eye.

 

[Quetzal]

1. GB @ Det: oh what a difference a few weeks make. This write-off suddenly becomes a pause. A Santa pause? No, there's no gift giving here. The Pack is a visiting 3 road fav. 62% of the betting public says, "Why not?" with 38% responding, "Because." Ho, ho, ho. Detroit. They're playing better and have been for a while. If they could beat the Pack on the road why not at home?

No dice, TH. Sure, Stafford has been playing well the last two days but his performance at Lambeau was "meh" at best. Lacy has finally decided to show up and should help Rodgers out in the backfield. I am taking Green Bay by 6.

2. Atl @ TB: hate this game like the Grinch hates Who Hash, but a pick'em 2.5 line favoring Tampa shouldn't leave anyone with indigestion for swallowing the "this is the week" Falcon narrative. The split (yea/nay on the line) is about even with thirty-nine and a half foot poles coming out in droves...I'm taking Atlanta because someone has to win.

Eww, this game sucks. Atlanta's defense might just enough to Winston and company a rough Sunday in Tampa. On the other hand... I have as much confidence in Matt Ryan as I do in Hulk Hogan making a return to the ring, it simply won't happen. With that said, Atlanta, but it is going to be ugly.

3. Hou @ Buf: the Bills are a 2.5 fav at home. The split is 58/42 in favor. I think it's another heart breaker. I'll take the home team in cold weather over the visiting Texans. Buffalo.

I picked up the Houston defense this week, I am hoping for a low scoring affair in either case. Hobbes over there takes the Bills and so do I.

4. SF @ Chi: Chicago is a confident 6.5 home favorite with the split in support of it 77/33. Should be a no brainer. I'd have taken it at seven....see what I did there?

Jay Cutler has to be licking his chops after two lack-luster performances against Green Bay and and Denver respectively. (Still bitter that he won at Green Bay...) San Fran wishes the season ended in Week 2 and their destruction will continue here. Da Bears.

5. Cin @ Cle: Cin is a 6.5 favorite and the split says "Yea" by a 90/10 margin. Heck, you can get over 50% offering ten now. Looks like the over/under on Manzel's bar tab would have been a more interesting bet. Bengals.

Cleveland is on a 6 game losing streak and they are rotating in after McCown got knocked out for the season. Should be a layup with the Bengals and I agree with Vegas... they still owe me a ticket to the steak and lobster bar...

6. Jac @ Ten: the Titans keep burning me, but...this week they're a 2.5 home favorite. The split? 66/44 against. So, naturally, I'm staying with the Titans for the upset. Why: They're pretty evenly matched and Jac won the last one in a low scoring contest at home. On the road I figure it's more likely the other guy's turn.

I am with you here. If Mariota and Wright can get on the same page, they can create some magic against the struggling Jaguar secondary. I look for him to pull it together here, Titans.

7. Arz @ SL: The Cardinals are a 5.5 favorite with a whopping 81/19 split in agreement. I like them by eight or better, so I'm not arguing.

Arizona has too many weapons against the one dimensional StL defense. They will find holes all day, probably through the run game. Cards!

8. Bal @ Mia: having to think about this game is like being dragged into a women's apparel store during Christmas shopping as a kid so your mom can try on blouses while you stare longingly through the front window at the Toys R Us across the way...anyway, Miami is a 4.5 favorite and the split on this one is running "who the hell cares?" dead even. I don't like either team by anything so I'm taking Baltimore.

Is the puppy bowl pre-game show on? Yeah, let's watch that instead. I will take the Dolphins because of reasons, but mainly because we need a few contests here!

9. Sea @ Min: now this one is interesting. So interesting Vegas said, "Oh no we don't" and gave this a scintillating .5 line in favor of the home Vikings. When Vegas is trying to pull you in with all of a half point...you're better off putting everything on red at the roulette table. This split is a neither naughty nor nice 48/52 in favor. I like both teams, so I went into the numbers for help. It wasn't any.

Okay, Wilson found his sea(hawk) legs last week and AP will be bringing it, but I think I believe more in Seattle's ability to generate defensive heat and find some running room than I do the Vikings. The difference is at qb and it's just enough to tip this one and me in favor of Seattle.

Man, this is tough... I am looking at Rawls and how impressive he has been since Lynch took a seat but the Vikings defense holds their own against the run. This is also trouble for Wilson who enjoys to take a jog himself. Across the field you have Peterson against another defense that is tough in their own right... It will be close and with the line so close, Seahawks.

10. Jets @ Gia: the line is a curious 1.5 fav for the visitor with around 60% of those looking on going "Wha? Really?" I know the Giants haven't been the model of consistency, but I like Eli and crew by better than a fg this week.

No dice, if the Giants couldn't contain the Redskins, they cannot contain Fitzy and the boys. I take the jets Jets JETS!

11. Den @ SD: Broncos are a 4.5 visiting fav. The split is 75/25 in favor. Sure, but an unproven qb on the road always makes me nervous.

Have a bit of faith... in the defense! While I do not think (what is his name again...) Osweiler will shoot the lights out, the SD defense is beatable and the Denver defense will help recover from his rookie mistakes. Broncos.

12. KC @ Oak: head stratching 2.5 edge for visiting KC has me wondering what Vegas thinks it knows here. The split? 62/38 for...almost a surprise. I like KC going away and have it closer to a 29-21 final on the shy end. Now if Oak ignites offensively, this could end up a shoot out and a fg, which still leaves me with KC. Plus, KC will be wearing their Christmas colors. . .

I don't know much about either team, but what I do know is I picked up Maclin on the waiver and the Oakland defense is beatable. Chefs, I mean, Chiefs!

13. Phi @ NE: Pats are a 9.5 home favorite. The split is 74/26 with. I know, it's a no-brainer, right? Or is it...I'm less sure. I'll take this as the upset by points.

No way, you have lost your marbles here. Amendola is making a triumphant return (I hope) to the ring and the Philly defense has more holes than a piece of swiss cheese. Look for Brady to shoot the lights out here. Patriots.

14. Car @ NO: the Panthers continue their march toward perfection as a 7.5 road favorite, visiting a woeful Saints defense. The split is 66/44 in favor. The Saints have one of the best qbs of the modern era and that's always going to give you a puncher's chance, but the Panther defense is stout and the offense has found points aplenty itself. I'm going to start giving Carolina the credit they're sort of due.

Cam has easy pickins this week and 7.5 just isn't enough to sway me. Panthers.

15. Ind @ Pit: hate this game. The Steelers are a 6.5 home favorite and the split is about even. I'm going with my Colts to at least keep it closer and make this one a fg or two game.

You could convince me that the Steelers win the game, but by a touchdown? Nah, field goal at most. Colts.

16. Dal @ Was: Washington is an irksome 3.5 favorite against the perpetually wounded Cowboys...a double irony win for the home team? Why not. I'll take Dallas to keep it close enough to kill the gamblers with the half point gleam in their eye.

I'll take your money! Washington at home because they both suck too bad to figure out which is worse. Give them both a loss, I don't care.

 

[Quetzal]

@A Greased Scotsman or @lewisnotmiller , want in on the pick 'em action?

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Well...I usually just go with a 'best bets' list rather than pick every game and most of the games this week aren't for a few days.

I'd pick GB over Detroit, purely because I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers in revenge mode, but recent form of both teams gives me little confidence in that choice so I'll keep my wallet in my pocket.

I'll do some actual research on the otger games and get back to you!!

 

[Quetzal]

Alright sports fans, going into tonight...

@Quetzal and @lewisnotmiller believe Rodgers pulls it together to give all the cheese heads at home an early start to their weekend.

@Town Heretic is impressed with Detroit's recent performances and believe they will go 2-0 against Aaron and the boys.

 

[Town Heretic]

I was right until about the last ten seconds. A luck penalty and a Hail Mary to make the points. I can live with it. Doubly so since Q went GB and 6.

 

[Quetzal]

I was right until about the last ten seconds. A luck penalty and a Hail Mary to make the points. I can live with it. Doubly so since Q went GB and 6.

It shouldn't have even been that close. I think I am comfortable saying that Detroit was the better team last night.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

See? Told you the Cheeseheads would be happy. The game was never in doubt.

(I jest, of course. Holy crap, what an ending!)

 

[Quetzal]

See? Told you the Cheeseheads would be happy. The game was never in doubt.

(I jest, of course. Holy crap, what an ending!)

Oh yeah, they had them right where they wanted 'em!

 

[lewisnotmiller]

My best bets for the weekend are as follows;

Arizona to beat the spread, and then some, against a St Louis team which has lacked consistency this year. St Louis at their best are decent, but the Cards bring their best most weeks.

Denver to beat the spread against San Diego. They are getting enough from QB, I think, and their defence is pretty awesome and they're against a Chargers team with a limited amount to play for at this point. They might as well start packing for a new home next season. Having said that, I rate Rivers, so I'm never totally comfortable writing them off. But the Broncos should be able to pressure him enough.

I like the Steelers to end Hasselbeck's unbeaten streak with a solid victory and cover the spread. I am assuming Big Ben will play, since that seems to be the word, and I just think he links up with the Steeler receivers to cause some real damage here. The running game is still good, even without Bell, and their defence always stiffens at this time of year, it seems.

And finally, Washington to beat up on Dallas. I don't really rate the Cowboys WITH Romo, so without...I'll take the Washington Professional Football Team thanks.

 

[Quetzal]

And here we go! Going into Sunday:

Bal @Mia
TH takes Baltimore to sour plans for Miami at home while Q has some faith remaining for the fishes.

Jets @ Gia
Q's hatred for the lesser Manning continues as he hopes for Fitzpatrick to shoot the light out, while TH takes a risky gamble with Manning and Co.

Phi @ NE
TH takes a risky upset while Q decides to take a safer route with the rock that is Tom Brady.

Dal @ Wash
TH likes a beat up Dallas enough to give them the nod. Q and @lewisnotmiller are not convinced.

Ind @ Pitt
Q and TH join forces with the ponies to take on @lewisnotmiller and the Steelers!

Good luck gents!

 

[Town Heretic]

Well, the Baltimore and Giants are essentially pick'em games. Dallas and Philly are reaches, but I can see either or both losing while sabotaging the points. If I was betting real money I'd probably limit it to one of the two.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Well, the Baltimore and Giants are essentially pick'em games. Dallas and Philly are reaches, but I can see either or both losing while sabotaging the points. If I was betting real money I'd probably limit it to one of the two.

Ive got real money on my picks, albeit very small stakes.

 

[Town Heretic]

Ive got real money on my picks, albeit very small stakes.

I don't gamble any longer, but I'm glad you don't bet what you can't afford to lose. I don't see the harm in that. Good luck.