October 31, 2024 - The stock market sputters

[Kathryn]

Let's see how it does after the election.

 

[Watchmen]

Need a references, because your original post cited only one month and when you describe Stock Market Figures over a long period of time your complicating the economic influence including elections that followed extreme Stock Market drops.

Note from your source: "However, in any given year, market conditions, investor sentiment and economic factors can vary widely. Therefore, historical performance — while providing context — is not the best indicator of how the S&P 500 will perform on a year-by-year or month-by-month basis."

You're overthinking this. The three months prior are the indicator (see my previous source), and I was just pointing out that there was a big drop shortly before the election. Half of the loss was recovered the next day. All indicators point to Harris.

 

[oldbadger]

Wrong. The market has accurately predicted 83% of the elections the past century.

This Stock Market Stat Has Predicted 83% of Presidential Elections in the Past Century

Stocks have a strong record of predicting whether the incumbent will win.

money.com

What is the market's prediction for this Tuesday?

 

[Pogo]

What is the market's prediction for this Tuesday?

I don't know but the last time this prediction was wrong was 2020 when guess who was running as the incumbent.
2020: After the brief pandemic-induced bear market, the S&P 500 returned 2.3% in the three months prior to Election Day. Despite the market rebound, President Trump's approval rating dipped below 30%, unemployment was as high as 8.4% in the weeks leading up to the election and a record number of Americans voted.

​

And then there is that old bugaboo that correlation does not equal causation.

 

[Watchmen]

What is the market's prediction for this Tuesday?

A Harris win.

 

[Watchmen]

I don't know but the last time this prediction was wrong was 2020 when guess who was running as the incumbent.
2020: After the brief pandemic-induced bear market, the S&P 500 returned 2.3% in the three months prior to Election Day. Despite the market rebound, President Trump's approval rating dipped below 30%, unemployment was as high as 8.4% in the weeks leading up to the election and a record number of Americans voted.

​

And then there is that old bugaboo that correlation does not equal causation.

I don’t think anyone has mentioned causation. And the market is only right 83% of the time, not 100%. And this election is certainly a wild card given it’s Trump (a crazy man who MAGAs love) and Harris (someone who didn’t even go through the primary process technically and is the candidate because of Biden’s age-related decline). If ever there was a year when the market gets it wrong, this might be it.

 

[Pogo]

I don’t think anyone has mentioned causation. And the market is only right 83% of the time, not 100%. And this election is certainly a wild card given it’s Trump (a crazy man who MAGAs love) and Harris (someone who didn’t even go through the primary process technically and is the candidate because of Biden’s age-related decline). If ever there was a year when the market gets it wrong, this might be it.

The point is that basically a random stat that in hindsight correlated to some degree, this is a major danger in statistical analysis that they teach you about in first semester. It is mostly just a function of humans finding patterns.
Now if someone actually wanted to do a real analysis to see if there is something there, it will go through a lot of discussion before it is accepted, that is the scientific method as opposed to emotion.

 

[Watchmen]

The point is that basically a random stat that in hindsight correlated to some degree, this is a major danger in statistical analysis that they teach you about in first semester. It is mostly just a function of humans finding patterns.
Now if someone actually wanted to do a real analysis to see if there is something there, it will go through a lot of discussion before it is accepted, that is the scientific method as opposed to emotion.

A real analysis was done. That’s where the 83% comes from. But it’s just predictor, not causation.

 

[Pogo]

A real analysis was done. That’s where the 83% comes from. But it’s just predictor, not causation.

Nevermind, you and @Subduction Zone are entertaining enough already.