Poll: Who will be president?

[Watchmen]

Time for the very unofficial RF Presidential Poll. I define “easily” as securing 300+ electoral votes.

EDIT: This is not a thread to debate the pros and cons of the electoral college. This poll is based on the rules in place for this election.

 

[Pogo]

Time for the very unofficial RF Presidential Poll. I define “easily” as securing 300+ electoral votes.

The only easy thing is the likelihood that the EC will distort the outcome.

 

[Watchmen]

The only easy thing is the likelihood that the EC will distort the outcome.

Irrelevant. Play by the constitutional rules.

 

[Kathryn]

And I didn't vote for either one.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

While it's true that I may be dreaming in technicolor, I can't suppress this feeling I have that more undecided voters will come to their senses, especially once they are alone with their ballot. And to my mind, that means realzing that Donald Trump is not just the worser of two evils, but a very real threat to American democracy, and that means a vote for Harris. I think it possible that could get her to 302 EC votes.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

The only easy thing is the likelihood that the EC will distort the outcome.

That is an impossibility since it is the constitutional way to elect a president.

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

While it's true that I may be dreaming in technicolor, I can't suppress this feeling I have that more undecided voters will come to their senses, especially once they are alone with their ballot. And to my mind, that means realzing that Donald Trump is not just the worser of two evils, but a very real threat to American democracy, and that means a vote for Harris. I think it possible that could get her to 302 EC votes.

The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

 

[Twilight Hue]

The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

Plus Harris and Vance has proven even to a lot of left-wingers, that she and Waltz both are clearly incapable of running a country with any degree of confidence or ability and the fact that they were just simply appointed by the hive mind party overlords and not through any type of nomination process that one would expect to see in a responsible representative republic.

 

[Copernicus]

The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

The problem is that the polls are almost all within their margins of error, and some are quite biased to favor Republicans or Democrats. More recently, there have been a flood of polls released that tend to lean in the Republican direction. Whether that is by design or chance is difficult to say, but they make it look like Trump is gaining on Harris. Poll aggregators like Nate Silver tend to weigh polls in order to correct for that in their trend lines, but it is extremely difficult to tell how accurately polls are being weighed in models of that sort. The fact remains that the polling shows a fairly evenly-divided electorate. And what really matters is the swing states, where the voters who will really choose the winner of the election live.

GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy​

 

[Clizby Wampuscat]

The problem is that the polls are almost all within their margins of error, and some are quite biased to favor Republicans or Democrats. More recently, there have been a flood of polls released that tend to lean in the Republican direction. Whether that is by design or chance is difficult to say, but they make it look like Trump is gaining on Harris. Poll aggregators like Nate Silver tend to weigh polls in order to correct for that in their trend lines, but it is extremely difficult to tell how accurately polls are being weighed in models of that sort. The fact remains that the polling shows a fairly evenly-divided electorate. And what really matters is the swing states, where the voters who will really choose the winner of the election live.

GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy​

Historically he outperformed all the polls. We will see this time.

 

[an anarchist]

Ron Paul, but it will be very close.

 

[fantome profane]

I cannot make any predictions as to who will win the U.S. Presidential election. It is too close and too volatile.

But I will make the following predictions.

Harris will win the popular vote. I know that does not matter, but it is something I can predict with reasonable confidence. No Republican Presidential candidate has won the popular vote for 20 years, and Donald Trump has lost the popular vote twice. He will lose it a third time.

Trump will declare victory. He will declare victory regardless of the actual outcome.

Trump will complain about the outcome. If he loses he will say it was rigged, and even if he wins he will still claim he won by a larger margin than he did,

If Trump does not win there will be court cases, protests, and violence. It will be a repeat of what happened in 2020,

Those are my predictions.

 

[Regiomontanus]

Time for the very unofficial RF Presidential Poll. I define “easily” as securing 300+ electoral votes.

EDIT: This is not a thread to debate the pros and cons of the electoral college. This poll is based on the rules in place for this election.

I don't want the Orange One to win but I think he will - mainly because I think he will take PA. It will probably be close though.

 

[crossfire]

Harris will win the popular vote. The electoral college vote is a toss up, leaning towards Trump, imo. If Trump wins, he won't be in there for long. We'll be stuck with Vance.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

And I didn't vote for either one.

Such has been your mantra, althoughh why you persistently brag about seeing them as coequal evils is beyond me. But you do you.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

I suspect that this might be true, although I I suspect that there are also many in MAGA land who find Trump contemptible.

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

I voted "Harris but quote," only because I insist that people are better than we're led to expect.

 

[Watchmen]

The problem is that the polls are almost all within their margins of error, and some are quite biased to favor Republicans or Democrats. More recently, there have been a flood of polls released that tend to lean in the Republican direction. Whether that is by design or chance is difficult to say, but they make it look like Trump is gaining on Harris. Poll aggregators like Nate Silver tend to weigh polls in order to correct for that in their trend lines, but it is extremely difficult to tell how accurately polls are being weighed in models of that sort. The fact remains that the polling shows a fairly evenly-divided electorate. And what really matters is the swing states, where the voters who will really choose the winner of the election live.

GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy​

This is spot on. I really think it’s a toss up, but I also think a toss up at this point probably translates to a Trump win. We’ll know in about 2.5 weeks.

 

[Copernicus]

Historically he outperformed all the polls. We will see this time.

Nevertheless, Joe Biden beat him by a comfortable margin in 2020, and Democrats outperformed their polling in 2022, where the president's party traditionally has done more poorly than the opposition. This has been an extremely unusual election season, and Kamala Harris's emergence as the Democratic nominee was a gamechanger. She quickly caught up with and passed Trump's polling numbers. Now there appears to have been some leveling, as the initial wave of enthusiasm for her inevitably waned. She did not get the traditional bump in polling from the Democratic convention, but her numbers have been holding fairly steady.

Bear in mind that almost all of the pollsters use models that do not report raw numbers, but numbers weighted according to the demographic of the individual answering the poll. What we do not know is what voter turnout will be like and whether there will be a surge in, say, the number of young voters, which would favor Harris. We also know that a small percentage of Republicans will vote for Harris, and some ticket-splitting will take place. Will people continue to feel that inflation or the border situation are strong issues for Trump, or will the super hurricanes make people more concerned about climate change than they have been in the past?

There are an awful lot of variables that can affect results, including the weather conditions on November 5. And early voting appears to be really strong this year, which should be a modest advantage for Harris. I dropped my own ballot off yesterday, just a couple of days after I received it in the mail. There was no doubt in my mind about who I would vote for, so there was no point in delaying. OTOH, my state was always going to prefer Harris, so I could have sat it out, if I were more apathetic about elections.

 

[Heyo]

The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

Yeah, I don't get that. Why do people who are ashamed for voting for Trump do it anyway (though in secret)?