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Poll: Who will be president?

Who will win the US Presidential Election?

  • Harris…easily

    Votes: 7 24.1%
  • Trump…easily

    Votes: 3 10.3%
  • Harris, but it will be very close

    Votes: 16 55.2%
  • Trump, but it will be very close

    Votes: 3 10.3%

  • Total voters
    29

Heyo

Veteran Member
Why do people do shameful things in secret? Because they’re ashamed, I suppose.
But why do they do them? I get it when they have an urge, like masturbation. I understand it when they have a monetary incentive, like stealing. But voting for Trump when you know it is shameful?
 

RestlessSoul

Well-Known Member
But why do they do them? I get it when they have an urge, like masturbation. I understand it when they have a monetary incentive, like stealing. But voting for Trump when you know it is shameful?


I don't know the answer to that, but a similar phenomenon has been identified in the UK. 'Shy Tories' don't want to admit to voting for what has been labelled, by one of their own, as 'The Nasty Party', but do so in the privacy of the voting booth, prseumably because they think it's in their interests.
 

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.
Yeah, I don't get that. Why do people who are ashamed for voting for Trump do it anyway (though in secret)?

There is something to be said for Clizby's point, but I don't think it is so much the fear of being called nasty names. It is the resentment they feel at having been disrespected, ignored, and made to feel helpless. Anger, resentment, grievance, and outright hatred are the main campaign themes in Donald Trump's speeches. Voting for him, and maybe getting him shoved down the throats of people they despise must give a feeling of satisfaction, empowerment, and revenge to those who resonate with Trump's grievances. He often tells his supporters that he is just like them--a scapegoat for the haters on the left--and that he will protect and satisfy them. The woke crowd are exposing them to dangers from immigrants and influencing children and adults to undergo sex change operations, among other things. So they vote for him. Never mind that the changes he brings will not be the ones they expect.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.

Considering the ratio of "Let's Go Brandon" bumper stickers to any sort of "**** Trump" bumper stickers, I think this is unlikely.

Trump's voter base tends to skew toward demographics who more reliably make the conversion from "likely voter" to "actual voter."
 

fantome profane

Anti-Woke = Anti-Justice
Premium Member
There is something to be said for Clizby's point, but I don't think it is so much the fear of being called nasty names. It is the resentment they feel at having been disrespected, ignored, and made to feel helpless. Anger, resentment, grievance, and outright hatred are the main campaign themes in Donald Trump's speeches. Voting for him, and maybe getting him shoved down the throats of people they despise must give a feeling of satisfaction, empowerment, and revenge to those who resonate with Trump's grievances. He often tells his supporters that he is just like them--a scapegoat for the haters on the left--and that he will protect and satisfy them. The woke crowd are exposing them to dangers from immigrants and influencing children and adults to undergo sex change operations, among other things. So they vote for him. Never mind that the changes he brings will not be the ones they expect.


This is only one example of intimidation of Harris voters. There may be more Harris voters who will not admit to being Harris voters for this reason. There may be people who have always been Republicans who are not comfortable telling their friends and family that this year they are voting for a Democrat.

I am not making predictions. I am only saying that predictions of Trump overperforming the polls may or may not be correct.
 

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
I am not making predictions. I am only saying that predictions of Trump overperforming the polls may or may not be correct.

But Trump could overperform and still lose. That is what happened in 2020. He got more votes than he had in the past, but Biden got a lot more. I expect both candidates to overperform. Turning out the vote in swing states is probably where the real battle will be fought. That is why attempts at voter suppression in this election cycle have been so blatant and frequent around the country. The infiltration of Trump supporters into the election machinery is another wild card.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
The problem is that the polls are almost all within their margins of error, and some are quite biased to favor Republicans or Democrats. More recently, there have been a flood of polls released that tend to lean in the Republican direction. Whether that is by design or chance is difficult to say, but they make it look like Trump is gaining on Harris. Poll aggregators like Nate Silver tend to weigh polls in order to correct for that in their trend lines, but it is extremely difficult to tell how accurately polls are being weighed in models of that sort. The fact remains that the polling shows a fairly evenly-divided electorate. And what really matters is the swing states, where the voters who will really choose the winner of the election live.

GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy

That is a bit of a relief. Polls can be shifted at times depending upon how questions are asked and who is asked. There is no good explanation for why Trump would be gaining at all. If anything his increased dementia should be causing huge drops.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
The reason trump overperforms the polling is because people don’t want to be called nasty names for voting for trump. There are more closet trump voters than closet Harris voters.
It is likely to be the opposite this time around. We have seen that in a few elections. First off in 2022 the Republican grossly underperformed compared to the polls. You probably forgot all of the predictions of a Red Tide that totally failed to appear. That may be because of America's inherent prudishness. Abortion is an important issue for many and people often do not let that be known publicly. But the let it be known in the polls. Both Kansas and Ohio were huge surprises when it came to abortion rights.
 

fantome profane

Anti-Woke = Anti-Justice
Premium Member
But Trump could overperform and still lose. That is what happened in 2020. He got more votes than he had in the past, but Biden got a lot more. I expect both candidates to overperform. Turning out the vote in swing states is probably where the real battle will be fought. That is why attempts at voter suppression in this election cycle have been so blatant and frequent around the country. The infiltration of Trump supporters into the election machinery is another wild card.
Maybe. It depends on how the poll numbers are presented, in terms of votes, or percentage of votes.

But I think you are right; voter turnout will be huge this year. Any other time I would say that is good, and it is good, but I know it is because people are absolutely terrified, and that is not good.
 
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Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
It is likely to be the opposite this time around. We have seen that in a few elections. First off in 2022 the Republican grossly underperformed compared to the polls. You probably forgot all of the predictions of a Red Tide that totally failed to appear. That may be because of America's inherent prudishness. Abortion is an important issue for many and people often do not let that be known publicly. But the let it be known in the polls. Both Kansas and Ohio were huge surprises when it came to abortion rights.

2022 did contradict conventional wisdom, which suggested that the president's party would tend to lose votes. I do believe that the abortion issue was a big part of that, but we are in a presidential cycle now. Trump has made immigration a huge issue, and Harris has not been effective at blunting it. Abortion is still a factor, but it is not at the front of every voter's mind right now. Probably the assault on democracy looms larger when it comes to what drives Democrats to vote. Trump poses a real danger to it, and the public is definitely split over how serious that danger is. The thing about immigration is that there is an undercurrent of racism to it. Most voters are white, and white grievance over antidiscrimination efforts is felt strongly in many areas. I know that it is especially strong in Ohio, which used to be more of a swing state. It is a factor in most of the battleground states.
 
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