Putin Broaches Pretext For War Against NATO?

[exchemist]

And then the problem would be that we do not have enough conventional firepower there to beat Putin's forces back, so the next in line would be tactical nukes that they would have as an advantage there, and the next are the big-uns. Do we really want that?

Mind you, Russia's conventional firepower is not what it has been cracked up to be. One very interesting thing we are discovering is how crap they are.

 

[Revoltingest]

Mind you, Russia's conventional firepower is not what it has been cracked up to be. One very interesting thing we are discovering is how crap they are.

I suspect that Russia is playing the game of sending in
the lower quality material & personnel, ie, the pawns
in the opening. Sacrifice them before committing the
valuable assets.

 

[metis]

Mind you, Russia's conventional firepower is not what it has been cracked up to be. One very interesting thing we are discovering is how crap they are.

Yes and no.

I think Putin was surprised at the resistance and the world's reaction, which may be because he was getting bad advice. Remember, tyrants don't like the word "no", thus his staff may have been feeding him that which they know he would want to hear.

OTOH, they would hand's down win on a conventional or even a tactical nuclear conflict largely because they have everything there nearby, plus their air force has been little used thus far, and it is VERY formidable.

 

[fantome profane]

I suspect that Russia is playing the game of sending in
the lower quality material & personnel, ie, the pawns
in the opening. Sacrifice them before committing the
valuable assets.

If so it has proven to be a remarkably stupid plan.

 

[exchemist]

Yes and no.

I think Putin was surprised at the resistance and the world's reaction, which may be because he was getting bad advice. Remember, tyrants don't like the word "no", thus his staff may have been feeding him that which they know he would want to hear.

OTOH, they would hand's down win on a conventional or even a tactical nuclear conflict largely because they have everything there nearby, plus their air force has been little used thus far, and it is VERY formidable.

The morale of Russia's troops seems to be very poor. They are reported to be ill fed and probably fed up with being out in the cold for weeks now. Most of them were told they were going on a training exercise (!) and a lot of them seem to be unhappy conscripts.

But you make a good point about the air force. I had not been thinking about that.

 

[Revoltingest]

If so it has proven to be a remarkably stupid plan.

It's not stupid. It just shows priorities &
the value placed upon lives of others.

 

[fantome profane]

It's not stupid. It just shows priorities &
the value placed upon lives of others.

Nah, it was stupid.

Look at what the Put man has accomplished. Trump spent four years weakening the resolve of NATO, and in in less than a week in has made it stronger and more united than ever. Putin wanted to stop NATO expansion, and now he has sped it up (Sweden, Norway, Findland).

He has united the Ukrainian people in defiance against Russia. Putin may take the territory and cities of Ukraine, but he will never take the nation. This is never going to lead to the reuniting of “Greater Russia”, never gonna happen. He has sent millions of refugees fleeing, and they ain’t fleeing to Russia. They are fleeing to the west, to NATO nations. Thereby strengthening the ties between Ukraine and the west and weakening the ties between the Ukraine and Russia.

As I said to you before, taking is not the same thing as keeping.

The Russian economy is on the verge of total collapse, oil pipeline project have been halted, and existing pipeline have stopped flowing. International trade is almost completely halted, or will be soon.

Russian oligarchs are having their property seized.

Putin would still be having some of these problems if he has managed to take Ukraine quickly (as I am convinced was his plan) many of these things would still be happening, but the effect would have been minimized and he would have been in a better negotiating position.

No, I don’t think Putin planned on sending in lower quality personnel and equipment first. But if he did plan that it would have been a stupid plan. If he planned on taking Ukraine quickly and failed that show incompetence.

 

[Revoltingest]

Nah, it was stupid.

I spoke of the tactical situation, ie, sacrificing pawns initially.
However, I agree that strategically, the invasion is stoopid on steroids.

 

[fantome profane]

I spoke of the tactical situation, ie, sacrificing pawns initially.
However, I agree that strategically, the invasion is stoopid on steroids.

But a good tactician will sacrifice pawns for some material gain. Not just for the sake of sacrifice.

 

[sun rise]

The way the NATO talks about the situation is a little bit like the Ents from Lord of the Rings. They see a tragedy unfolding so they gather together and just sort of talk about it.
AKA appeasement.

Oh boy does that ignore all the help we're giving Ukraine - totally ignores the hundreds of millions of dollars of military equipment so they can destroy tanks, shoot down planes, fight urban warfare etc.

 

[Revoltingest]

But a good tactician will sacrifice pawns for some material gain. Not just for the sake of sacrifice.

I never said that sacrifice is the goal.
It's a tool to soften the opposition & determine capability
without risking valuable assets. This is common in games.

 

[sun rise]

Agree. We can and should call Putin's bluff over pretending sanctions are an act of war. In fact we should carry on toughening them, to show we are not intimidated, while refraining from any inflammatory language that he could choose to misinterpret.

The reaction of the Russian oligarchs to our sanctions reminds me extremely well of this:

 

[exchemist]

The reaction of the Russian oligarchs to our sanctions reminds me extremely well of this:

Yeah, though they are not running fast enough from London, due to the deep financial connections between Bozo's Tories and oligarch wealth. Part of the strategy has been to buy in to the Western establishment in certain countries. Oligarchs own some of the biggest houses in London, send their kids to Eton....and make political donations........

 

[sun rise]

Yeah, though they are not running fast enough from London, due to the deep financial connections between Bozo's Tories and oligarch wealth. Part of the strategy has been to buy in to the Western establishment in certain countries. Oligarchs own some of the biggest houses in London, send their kids to Eton....and make political donations........

One tried and may have succeeded in buying Israel with donations to a holocaust museum. Israel has to decide between a building and the suffering of a nation.

 

[Truthseeker]

This guy seems to be like Mark Russell. Remember him?

 

[Truthseeker]

Mind you, Russia's conventional firepower is not what it has been cracked up to be. One very interesting thing we are discovering is how crap they are.

It's firepower is greater than Ukraine's. But they have botched their operation. It was predicated on the notion the conflict would only last a few days, it seems.

 

[Revoltingest]

This guy seems to be like Mark Russell. Remember him?

Me no remember him.
Name familiar though.

 

[Truthseeker]

Me no remember him.
Name familiar though.

Don't know what country you live in, but he was a comedian on PBS in the US who used to sing while playing the piano, and other stand-up political comedy. I once saw perform in person with my wife in Dayton, Ohio. We loved him.

 

[Revoltingest]

Don't know what country you live in, but he was a comedian on PBS in the US who used to sing while playing the piano, and other stand-up political comedy. I once saw perform in person with my wife in Dayton, Ohio. We loved him.

I can picture what he looks like.
But I was never a fan.
(I live in Revoltistan, which is in SE Michiganistan.)

 

[Ponder This]

He said any attempt by another power to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would be considered by Russia to be a step into the military conflict. NATO has rejected Kyiv's request for a no-fly zone, on the grounds it would escalate the war beyond Ukraine.

I'm seeing more that mere talk from
NATO, eg, Germany's military build-up.
BTW, the Ents did enter the war.

Oh boy does that ignore all the help we're giving Ukraine - totally ignores the hundreds of millions of dollars of military equipment so they can destroy tanks, shoot down planes, fight urban warfare etc.

NATO decided against a no-fly zone over Ukraine.