As has always been the case, probabilities arise out of ignorance. Because we don't know enough about the governing conditions to nail down a future event---whether it will happen or not---we are left to to construct likelihoods: probabilities. Of course, this does not mean such an event is uncaused.
Again, our inability to gather and evaluate all the relevant causal factors does not mean they don't exist.
But we know such 'hidden variables' are NOT the explanation for what we see. There are actual experiments that have been done that exclude the probabilities being due to hidden information. Local realism is no longer a possibility. QM is a local, non-realist description.
Says who? If initial conditions don't, then it must be the case that some kind of absolutely random uncaused event intervened. Got any unequivocal evidence for such an intruder?
Honestly, I'd be extremely interested to see the evidence for such an event. And just as an fyi, things like quantum tunneling and beta-particle emissions have yet to qualify.
How about the violations of Bell's inequalities? Aspect's experiment? Here's a fun little article:
http://web.pdx.edu/~pmoeck/lectures/Mermin longer.pdf
As a side note
, even if it was shown that some quantum events are absolutely uncaused, they would have no impact on the deterministic nature of human events. As physicist Max Tegmark observed: "quantum states in the brain would decohere before they reached a spatial or temporal scale at which they could be useful for neural processing. Based on his calculations, Tegmark concluded that quantum systems in the brain decohere quickly and cannot control brain function."
Source: Wikipedia
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And to a large extent I agree. I don't see quantum indeterminacy as relevant to consciousness at all.