red wave or a blue flame

[We Never Know]

Is there a lesson here?

Sure. People that live behind fences and walls to keep people out... Don't feel the same about our borders.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Sure. People that live behind fences and walls to keep people out... Don't feel the same about our borders.

I'd ask you to explain, but...

 

[We Never Know]

I'd ask you to explain, but...

Let me put it this way...
The white house has a fence around it and guards so anyone that shouldn't be there can't enter.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Let me put it this way...
The white house has a fence around it and guards so anyone that shouldn't be there can't enter.

And yet, humans are a social species. Yet, apparently, a very confused species, as well.

 

[Ponder This]

What's your predictions for the midterms...

Generally speaking, midterm elections go against the party in charge. This election is not likely to differ from that trend. Most important is the general (dis)satisfaction with the job performance of the party in charge. The worse the performance of the party in charge, the larger the shift in power during midterms. The midterm elections are, generally speaking, an informal referendum on the party in charge. Only losing a few seats would mean that the Democrat party didn't perform too badly in the eyes of the people. Losing many seats means the Democrats really did perform badly in the eyes of the people.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

The fact that Americans really are concerned about the economy, pretty much above all things, suggests that the House will return to Republican control -- but I do not think it will be a big win for them. Under 24 seats, giving them a small majority. Then we can have the pure joy of watching Kevin McCarthy try to control Marjorie Taylor Green. McCarthy doesn't have quite the cojones for that gal, I'm bettin'.

The Senate is tougher. It could be a 1 seat gain on either side, or status quo. I really don't see more than that.

The thing is, I think Americans, like everybody else, say a lot (especially to pollsters) before they cast their ballots, but once in the polling booth, I think a little sobriety sets in. And Americans do seem to care about other things than the economy, and while these won't make the day, they can mitigate. Americans do care about the rising amount of political violence, for example, and except for a few, most know on which side it largely originates. That might figure, as well as abortion -- lots won't say it, but even many Republican women still want the right to decisions about their own health care. And I think that most people know someone, or have family members, who identify as LGBTQ, and are not all that anxious that they should potentially have their hard-won rights stripped away.

But we'll see. We won't know the Senate, I think, until after a Georgia run-off.

By the way, Republicans are already filing lawsuits against mail-in votes in battleground states. They are, of course, seeking every possible advantage, just as they've been carving likely Democrat voters out of the general mob, and making voting more difficult for them. I would not want to be a supporter (nor could I be a "proud supporter") of a party with such shoddy values.

Off-hand, I'd say my pre-vote analysis and projection (above) was not very far off.

 

[Revoltingest]

Off-hand, I'd say my pre-vote analysis and projection (above) was not very far off.

Yesterday, I told someone my prediction...
There will be results.
I was right.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Yesterday, I told someone my prediction...
There will be results.
I was right.

Says the guy who respects nothing more than low expectations.

 

[fantome profane]

Off-hand, I'd say my pre-vote analysis and projection (above) was not very far off.

Yesterday, I told someone my prediction...
There will be results.
I was right.

I think the Republican will make some slight gains, but nothing like Obama’s shellacking, and not even as big as the blue wave Trump saw.

Check.

I also predict that there will be chaos, some results will take days if not weeks to finalize, there will be recounts and court cases. There will be whining and temper tantrums. And that prediction I am more confident about. I hope there will be no violence.

Wait for it.

 

[Revoltingest]

Says the guy who respects nothing more than low expectations.

My expectations were exceeded this time.

 

[pearl]

Obviously, the House now belongs to the Republicans. Mcarthy will more than likely be voted for Speaker. But I think he is in for a rough ride in that he will face the same divisions in his caucuses that too former Republican Speakers faced and gave up. And that was before Trump, and the conspiracies.

 

[dybmh]

R's will take the House
D's will maintain the Senate

winner winner chicken dinner?

 

[Twilight Hue]

We need a "who cares" option.

Really. It's not like anything significant or productive will be accomplished for the foreseeable future.

It's just a ra ra fest for keeping somebody's egregiously overpaid political career.

That's petty much it.

 

[Subduction Zone]

winner winner chicken dinner?

View attachment 68468

View attachment 68469

Yes, some Republicans may take some solace from the House figures. They will have picked up some seats, even if they do not take over the House. But the Republicans actually fared much worse than that.

Historically the average pickup by the party not in power in the House is 25 seats since 1946:

Historically, The President's Party Performs Poorly In The Midterms [Infographic]

And it is even worse than that. When the President in power has a low approval rating as Biden had an approval rating of just 41% going into the election it should have been well over that figure.

" According to Gallup's polling history, presidents with an approval rating below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats on average."

Since the Republicans underperformed by such a massive amount to me this is looking like a "Blue Flame" in retrospect.