The changing demographics of Christianity in recent times - What does it all really mean?

[Dawnofhope]

The Christian Church is facing an unprecedented crisis in New Zealand with rapidly dwindling numbers. Our last census recorded a rapid decline of those who identify as Christian from 48% of our population to 37% in just over 5 years. OTOH those who identify with no religion have risen from 42% to 49%.

'No religion' overtakes Christianity in latest Census results

This is a dramatic change in a very short period of time but one that was been accelerating over the last few decades.

In the USA the numbers of those who identify as Christian is much higher but there is still a rapid decline as a recent survey in Pew highlights.

In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace

The trend is likely to continue as there are much higher rates of affiliation with Christianity in the Baby boomer generation and beyond compared to the younger generations such as the millennials.

So in considering these ‘facts’, there has been a great deal of discussion and speculation about ‘why’ this demographic shift is happening. On one end of the spectrum we have atheists gleefully predicting the end of Christianity. OTOH many theists remind us of the repeated failure of such predictions that hark back to modernist views through the so called enlightenment age of eighteenth century Europe.

So to what extent does the changing demographic reflect the actual message of Christianity and its ability to adapt to modernity? What sociological factors are at work that Christianity has no control over?

I could speculate along with all the other commentators but I’m interested to hear what others have to say. Thanks for dropping by if you’ve made it this far.

 

[Secret Chief]

Education?

 

[Dawnofhope]

Education?

The Christian response to Darwin’s theory of evolution along with other scientific developments that challenged core Christian beliefs is certainly an important aspect of this discussion. Darwin himself grew up a Christian though later considered himself as an agnostic. Many Christians of course found his theory outrageous.

 

[Sunstone]

I recently came across mention of a meta-study that found surprisingly little scientific support across a variety and number of other studies for the notion education actually plays much of a role in the decline of religions. Of much greater importance, apparently, is the presence of good social safety nets. Those correlate much closer to the decline of religions than does the rise of education. There are also other lines of evidence for the notion that the safer and more secure people feel, the less religious they become.


Why Religion Is Not Going Away and Science Will Not Destroy It

 

[Sirona]

I don't know the situation in New Zealand, but people who experience(d) distress are more likely to keep their religious affiliation. Since the end of WWII, many Western countries have experienced an ongoing long period of peace together with a steady improvement in general wealth and other "issues" such as healthcare for example. At least in Germany, death is a taboo issue, and for many religious people, religion is what makes you feel good. In this context, as a piece of decoration, a Buddha statue from the DIY market may be more desirable than a crucifix.

 

[Vinayaka]

Is this uniquely Christian, or is a trend across most religions? If so, why single out Christianity?

 

[Sunstone]

This is an almost off-topic comment except that it perhaps illustrates the difficulty with ever finding the whole story behind the decline. We might isolate some of the major factors, but we will most likely never know all of the factors. For instance, one very minor factor has been that religions today are in increasingly greater competition with the entertainment industry. Go to church or play a video game? A sermon or football? Netflix or communion?

 

[Sunstone]

A related question might be whether fundamentalism is on decline, and if so, is its decline as rapid as mainstream Christianity.

 

[Sunstone]

Is this uniquely Christian, or is a trend across most religions? If so, why single out Christianity?

The overall decline of religion in general might be too huge of a topic for just one thread. Might be best to focus more narrowly. At least at first.

 

[Vinayaka]

Here's the latest Pew research (for America only) on all religions, on retention rates.

Pew Forum's U.S. Religious Landscape Survey - RationalWiki

 

[Dawnofhope]

I recently came across mention of a meta-study that found surprisingly little scientific support across a variety and number of other studies for the notion education actually plays much of a role in the decline of religions. Of much greater importance, apparently, is the presence of good social safety nets. Those correlate much closer to the decline of religions than does the rise of education. There are also other lines of evidence for the notion that the safer and more secure people feel, the less religious they become.


Why Religion Is Not Going Away and Science Will Not Destroy It

That’s an excellent paper. It brings to mind Friedrich Nietzsche’s somewhat facile announcement that “God is dead”.

God is dead - Wikipedia

 

[Kenny]

The Christian Church is facing an unprecedented crisis in New Zealand with rapidly dwindling numbers. Our last census recorded a rapid decline of those who identify as Christian from 48% of our population to 37% in just over 5 years. OTOH those who identify with no religion have risen from 42% to 49%.

'No religion' overtakes Christianity in latest Census results

This is a dramatic change in a very short period of time but one that was been accelerating over the last few decades.

In the USA the numbers of those who identify as Christian is much higher but there is still a rapid decline as a recent survey in Pew highlights.

In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace

The trend is likely to continue as there are much higher rates of affiliation with Christianity in the Baby boomer generation and beyond compared to the younger generations such as the millennials.

So in considering these ‘facts’, there has been a great deal of discussion and speculation about ‘why’ this demographic shift is happening. On one end of the spectrum we have atheists gleefully predicting the end of Christianity. OTOH many theists remind us of the repeated failure of such predictions that hark back to modernist views through the so called enlightenment age of eighteenth century Europe.

So to what extent does the changing demographic reflect the actual message of Christianity and it ability to adapt to modernity? What sociological factors are at work that Christianity has no control over?

I could speculate along with all the other commentators but I’m interested to hear what others have to say. Thanks for dropping by if you’ve made it this far.

I think this is completely normal. There is always an ebb and flow in spirituality. If we go to the OT, we find what the problem is:

Deuteronomy 8:11-17King James Version (KJV)
11 Beware that thou forget not the Lord thy God, in not keeping his commandments, and his judgments, and his statutes, which I command thee this day:
12 Lest when thou hast eaten and art full, and hast built goodly houses, and dwelt therein;
13 And when thy herds and thy flocks multiply, and thy silver and thy gold is multiplied, and all that thou hast is multiplied;
14 Then thine heart be lifted up, and thou forget the Lord thy God, which brought thee forth out of the land of Egypt, from the house of bondage;
15 Who led thee through that great and terrible wilderness, wherein were fiery serpents, and scorpions, and drought, where there was no water; who brought thee forth water out of the rock of flint;
16 Who fed thee in the wilderness with manna, which thy fathers knew not, that he might humble thee, and that he might prove thee, to do thee good at thy latter end;
17 And thou say in thine heart, My power and the might of mine hand hath gotten me this wealth.

Reasons:

1. Pride due to good living
2. Ignorance
3. Rejection (forgetting) of God

Then, as it will be now, everything will be taken away and spirituality will come back. The remnant will be there to help guide them.

 

[Dawnofhope]

Is this uniquely Christian, or is a trend across most religions? If so, why single out Christianity?

It is a phenomenon throughout much of Western Europe and Australasia. It could be argued that North America has resisted the trend until relatively recently. In regards overall proportions of Christians in the world, Christianity remains steady at over 30% and is the largest religion.

Islam on the other hand is growing rapidly and Hinduism isn’t likely to decline either. The projections are based on population changes through births and deaths. The population is increasing rapidly in Asia and Africa that offsets the slower growth in Europe.

Why Muslims are the world’s fastest-growing religious group

So the question could be more accurately phrased why does Christianity have declining numbers in Western countries such as the USA and NZ.

As I’m living in one such country the question intrigues me.

 

[Dawnofhope]

Reasons:

1. Pride due to good living
2. Ignorance
3. Rejection (forgetting) of God

Then, as it will be now, everything will be taken away and spirituality will come back. The remnant will be there to help guide them.

That was certainly the story throughout the Hebrew Bible. I guess there’s been a number of Christian revivals in the USA over the last century that would give cause for optimism that the tide may turn again. I can’t see it happening soon though. Can you?

 

[Dawnofhope]

I don't know the situation in New Zealand, but people who experience(d) distress are more likely to keep their religious affiliation. Since the end of WWII, many Western countries have experienced an ongoing long period of peace together with a steady improvement in general wealth and other "issues" such as healthcare for example. At least in Germany, death is a taboo issue, and for many religious people, religion is what makes you feel good. In this context, as a piece of decoration, a Buddha statue from the DIY market may be more desirable than a crucifix.

The experience of Europe and the USA through WWII was very different. The two world wars caused great destruction in Europe and left many questioning the values they had previously cherished including religious ideals. The USA on the other hand emerged as victors. They were relatively unscathed and their prosperity and influence in the world soon eclipsed Europe’s. So their Christian ideals were affirmed. The Cold War that followed with Russia in some ways affirmed Americas religious identity a righteous Christian nation resisting the evil and Godless communism.

There’s an interesting item from Christianity today which touches on this theme.

What to Understand about Christianity’s Decline in America

 

[Sunstone]

That’s an excellent paper. It brings to mind Friedrich Nietzsche’s somewhat facile announcement that “God is dead”.

God is dead - Wikipedia

Actually, Nietzsche was borrowing from Hegel who somewhere said much the same thing, but in prose so dense it never became an aphorism. Both men meant far more by it than is widely supposed. More or less something along the lines of we moderns no longer look exclusively and only to religion for the big picture, the big take on life. We are no longer religious in the sense that religion provides us with the whole of our worldview. Therefore, "God", in the sense of something that you cannot escape framing the world in terms of -- in that sense, God is dead. Or, God as the only lens you have for seeing the world -- that God is dead. And with that God, a sort of religiosity that we will never recover.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Actually, Nietzsche was borrowing from Hegel who somewhere said much the same thing, but in prose so dense it never became an aphorism. Both men meant far more by it than is widely supposed. More or less something along the lines of we moderns no longer look exclusively and only to religion for the big picture, the big take on life. We are no longer religious in the sense that religion provides us with the whole of our worldview. Therefore, "God", in the sense of something that you cannot escape framing the world in terms of -- in that sense, God is dead. Or, God as the only lens you have for seeing the world -- that God is dead. And with that God, a sort of religiosity that we will never recover.

Funny story. In a 450 level seminar on Nietzsche at uni, I witnessed a fellow student deliver a paper attacking "God is dead" on the grounds that God by definition cannot die. In a 450 level seminar! Like, dude, did you even study Nietzsche? The tragic thing was, I liked the guy. I felt totally embarrassed for him. As did at least one or two others in the room that evening. His paper was met with silence.

Kinda where the whole 'not even wrong' scenario comes in.
To be fair, he's not in that boat alone. Nietzsche is one of the more horrendously misused philosophers.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

The experience of Europe and the USA through WWII was very different. The two world wars caused great destruction in Europe and left many questioning the values they had previously cherished including religious ideals. The USA on the other hand emerged as victors. They were relatively unscathed and their prosperity and influence in the world soon eclipsed Europe’s. So their Christian ideals were affirmed. The Cold War that followed with Russia in some ways affirmed Americas religious identity a righteous Christian nation resisting the evil and Godless communism.

There’s an interesting item from Christianity today which touches on this theme.

What to Understand about Christianity’s Decline in America

The point about the 50's commonly being used for comparitive reporting, yet representing an outlier from previous times is interesting. I've seen skewing on statistics in other areas around the same time (Inc certain crime stats).

Have you looked at religious levels in NZ pre WW2, for example?

 

[Polymath257]

I think a significant aspect of the 'why' is that people are rejecting the morality pushed by many religions.

So, the hypocrisy of the Catholic church protecting pedophiles has caused a LOT of disillusionment with that particular church. But other churches have their own scandals. And that is frequently seen as just showing them to want to collect money while their leaders have no real scruples themselves.

Also, as people have shifted their views of homosexuality, that has often meant a rejection of those religions seen as condemning those people who are gay. In this, the morality proclaimed is, increasingly, seen as being just bigoted and worthy of little more than contempt.

 

[Kenny]

That was certainly the story throughout the Hebrew Bible. I guess there’s been a number of Christian revivals in the USA over the last century that would give cause for optimism that the tide may turn again. I can’t see it happening soon though. Can you?

That certainly that is the million dollar question proverb.

My personal view is that it is just around the corner. With Covid and the reality of shortness of life... it tends to make one begin thinking differently