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The Iowa Caucuses

Jayhawker Soule

Jayhawker Soule

-- untitled --
Premium Member
I've been watching the run-up to the Iowa Caucus returns, so let me start this thread with a rant:

<rant>

As I watch, I feel increasingly tempted to ban/cancel any candidate or pundit that begins a statement with: "Let me be [or I have been] perfectly clear -- the American people know|want ..." I just wish Tom Lehrer would reprise one of his old songs and come out with "The Talking Points Rag."​
​
</rant>

Thanks.

Now, turning to the Iowa Caucus, at issue is whether it matters at all. My guess is "not much," save for a couple of caveats.
  1. Whatever the outcome, it will come with an asterisk. If Trump performs as expected or exceeds expectations, he will portray it as an historic victory in the face of historic weather conditions. If it underperforms, weather conditions will be blamed.
  2. Meanwhile, many suggest that today's weather is most likely to suppress the Halley vote. This could mean (a) that DeSantis could live on to fight another day, and that Halley, unable to boast of a narrowing Trump-Haley gap, would find herself weakened going into New Hampshire.
Back on December 21st, News4 ran a piece under the headline: "Colorado court's Trump decision risks blunting Haley Momentum." The solar vortex now threatens to do the same.

In any event, quoting abcNEWS/538:

Long story short, DeSantis's best-case scenario is a result that earns him the "Comeback Kid" moniker that Bill Clinton famously gave himself after finishing second in the 1992 New Hampshire primary. Even though beating Trump looks outside the realm of possibility, beating expectations (and Haley) with a clear runner-up performance in the mid-20s is feasible.​

So, given that there's no multiverse in which the GOP anoints DeSantis over Trump, we're left with Trump as uber-winner no matter what. Yes?
 
Secret Chief

Secret Chief

Veteran Member
Jayhawker Soule said:
I've been watching the run-up to the Iowa Caucus returns, so let me start this thread with a rant:

<rant>

As I watch, I feel increasingly tempted to ban/cancel any candidate or pundit that begins a statement with: "Let me be [or I have been] perfectly clear -- the American people know|want ..." I just wish Tom Lehrer would reprise one of his old songs and come out with "The Talking Points Rag."​
​
</rant>

Thanks.

Now, turning to the Iowa Caucus, at issue is whether it matters at all. My guess is "not much," save for a couple of caveats.
  1. Whatever the outcome, it will come with an asterisk. If Trump performs as expected or exceeds expectations, he will portray it as an historic victory in the face of historic weather conditions. If it underperforms, weather conditions will be blamed.
  2. Meanwhile, many suggest that today's weather is most likely to suppress the Halley vote. This could mean (a) that DeSantis could live on to fight another day, and that Halley, unable to boast of a narrowing Trump-Haley gap, would find herself weakened going into New Hampshire.
Back on December 21st, News4 ran a piece under the headline: "Colorado court's Trump decision risks blunting Haley Momentum." The solar vortex now threatens to do the same.

In any event, quoting abcNEWS/538:

Long story short, DeSantis's best-case scenario is a result that earns him the "Comeback Kid" moniker that Bill Clinton famously gave himself after finishing second in the 1992 New Hampshire primary. Even though beating Trump looks outside the realm of possibility, beating expectations (and Haley) with a clear runner-up performance in the mid-20s is feasible.​

So, given that there's no multiverse in which the GOP anoints DeSantis over Trump, we're left with Trump as uber-winner no matter what. Yes?
Click to expand...
Yes.

- Iowa caucuses: What Trump's dominant win means for his rivals
 
Last edited:
Jayhawker Soule

Jayhawker Soule

-- untitled --
Premium Member
So ...

The state’s most devoted Republican caucus-goers were undeterred, defying snowy driveways, icy roads and speculation of lower turnout to show up and throw their support behind the former president. In total, Edison Research estimated turnout at 115,000 on Monday night — down from 186,657 in 2016 and lower than 2012′s 121,503 and 2008′s 119,207. Of those Iowans who bundled up in layers, donned their warmest coats and gave little thought to staying home, and with roughly 96 percent of the expected votes tallied, 51 percent of caucus-goers selected Trump, 21 percent picked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 19 percent backed Haley, a revealing glimpse at Republican voters’ choices in this first contest. [source]​

Trump got slightly over 50% in a Republican caucus process that engaged slightly more than 60% of the number that came out in 2016. Perhaps the least underwhelming result is that the DeSantis-Haley gap was a mere 2% which, for DeSantis, is a truly laughable ROI.
 
B

Bthoth

Well-Known Member
Jayhawker Soule said:
I've been watching the run-up to the Iowa Caucus returns, so let me start this thread with a rant:

<rant>

As I watch, I feel increasingly tempted to ban/cancel any candidate or pundit that begins a statement with: "Let me be [or I have been] perfectly clear -- the American people know|want ..." I just wish Tom Lehrer would reprise one of his old songs and come out with "The Talking Points Rag."​
​
</rant>

Thanks.

Now, turning to the Iowa Caucus, at issue is whether it matters at all. My guess is "not much," save for a couple of caveats.
  1. Whatever the outcome, it will come with an asterisk. If Trump performs as expected or exceeds expectations, he will portray it as an historic victory in the face of historic weather conditions. If it underperforms, weather conditions will be blamed.
  2. Meanwhile, many suggest that today's weather is most likely to suppress the Halley vote. This could mean (a) that DeSantis could live on to fight another day, and that Halley, unable to boast of a narrowing Trump-Haley gap, would find herself weakened going into New Hampshire.
Back on December 21st, News4 ran a piece under the headline: "Colorado court's Trump decision risks blunting Haley Momentum." The solar vortex now threatens to do the same.

In any event, quoting abcNEWS/538:

Long story short, DeSantis's best-case scenario is a result that earns him the "Comeback Kid" moniker that Bill Clinton famously gave himself after finishing second in the 1992 New Hampshire primary. Even though beating Trump looks outside the realm of possibility, beating expectations (and Haley) with a clear runner-up performance in the mid-20s is feasible.​

So, given that there's no multiverse in which the GOP anoints DeSantis over Trump, we're left with Trump as uber-winner no matter what. Yes?
Click to expand...
yes, the people of iowa made US look like idiots again.
 
Copernicus

Copernicus

Industrial Strength Linguist
Trump's win is being touted as a great victory for him, but was it? Well over 40% or Republicans backed a different candidate. In 2020, Donald Trump won 97% of the vote.

2020 Iowa Republican Caucuses Results

With that kind of showing in Iowa, the state seems more likely to be carried by Biden in the general election. Caucuses usually tend to be skewed in the direction of party activists, and primaries tend to produce more moderate results. New Hampshire and other primary states will give a better picture of what Trump's popularity will be in the general election.
 
Twilight Hue

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Bthoth said:
yes, the people of iowa made US look like idiots again.
Click to expand...
Yeah the Republicans sure did make a certain political demographic look like idiots.

I'm pretty sure they'll make that same demographic look like idiots during the presidential run as well.
 
B

Bthoth

Well-Known Member
Twilight Hue said:
Yeah the Republicans sure did make a certain political demographic look like idiots.

I'm pretty sure they'll make that same demographic look like idiots during the presidential run as well.
Click to expand...
I don't see the problem as demographic but closer to an ignorance within the spoiled population
 
Evangelicalhumanist

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Copernicus said:
Trump's win is being touted as a great victory for him, but was it? Well over 40% or Republicans backed a different candidate. In 2020, Donald Trump won 97% of the vote.

2020 Iowa Republican Caucuses Results

With that kind of showing in Iowa, the state seems more likely to be carried by Biden in the general election. Caucuses usually tend to be skewed in the direction of party activists, and primaries tend to produce more moderate results. New Hampshire and other primary states will give a better picture of what Trump's popularity will be in the general election.
Click to expand...
How long ago would it have seemed utterly unfathomable to you that someone facing 91 criminal indictments attracts the votes of so many evangelical Christian would win 51% of the vote (with 70% of those evangelicals supporting)?

On the other hand, incumbent Republicans in Iowa win 70% of the vote or more, so how exciting is 51% by someone who is -- in effect -- the incumbent?

I will be bringing these questions and more up in a new post tomorrow. There is something altogether new going on, and it's time we all started investigating what it is.
 
F

F1fan

Veteran Member
Let's note that 66% of the Caucus voters believe that Trump won the 2020 election, but Trump didn't even get that percentage of votes, he only got 51%. So there were election deniers who don't support Trump. That's interesting.

The question I have is how many of these 15% will not vote for Trump regardless if he's on the ballot. It's notable that Biden got an advantage in 2020 because many conservatives went to the polls but did not cast any vote for president.
 
beenherebeforeagain

beenherebeforeagain

Rogue Animist
Premium Member
Population of Iowa: almost 3.2 million
Number of registered Republicans in the state: about 570,000
Number who participated in caucuses: about 110,000

participants accounted for about 3.4 percent of the state...admittedly among the most motivated of the Republicans
The registered make up about 5 times that number, or about 18 percent of the population.

So just about 1.7 percent supported Trump, while slightly less favored the other candidates...

Shouldn't Trump, as the "incumbent" with all the flash and publicity around him, have polled better in a deep red state?
 
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