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The James and Jewel Thought Experiment

joe1776

Well-Known Member
You seem to be conflating the terms centralised and hierarchy.
Centralized organization can be defined as a hierarchy decision-making structure where all decisions and processes are handled strictly at the top or the executive level. Managers and employees lower in the chain of command are limited in the decision-making processes and can rarely implement .
 

joe1776

Well-Known Member
So competition in the marketplace is only a temporary solution for you until you ultimately ban it via government control of goods and services. So i didn't jump to an erroneous conclusion at all. You are ultimately against competition and want to eliminate it, even if you are willing to temporarily allow it for the moment.
Nope, you still don't have it. I am opposed to economic competition but not ALL competition as you earlier wrote.

I like how the dichotomy in your mind is that either a) I believe our society is perfect and has no room to improve or b) I have to agree with your half-baked utopian idea. Can you not imagine a third possibility?
How in the hell did you come up with that?

Im glad you concede, at least, that our society is not a dystopia.
The long term economic outlook isn't good.
 
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joe1776

Well-Known Member
Says who? By what metrics? For what reasons?
Several factors, mainly residential real estate.
I'm a retired real estate broker. I've seen the market over several years. Inflation has made home ownership a real challenge for most people. And, it was home ownership, the tax advantages and rising values, that allowed my generation to live well.
 
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MikeF

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
What do you think about using a form of sortition in addition to some form or electoral reform?

For me it massively mitigates the harm of zero-sum partisan politics, creates a diverse and truly representative body of lawmakers and removes the need for non-elected representatives to 'play to the gallery' to seek reelection.

I was unfamiliar with the concept or sortition, or some type of election by lottery, so I took a minute to get familiar with the concept.

Not to reject it out-of-hand, I do have concerns.

- To start, a concern would be how to determine what criteria might qualify someone to be eligible. I'm trying to view this in terms of current political offices in the US. Could any citizen of a state throw their hat in the pool to be selected as a Senator or Congressperson? I see that as disastrous. I don't see participation in the lottery being compulsory to the extent of jury duty, so the pool is limited to those with the personality to seek these offices, and if they must meet some qualification to participate, we are again putting a selective pressure on who will eventually serve, for good or ill.

- Candidates that are part of a political party system are really part of a political team, with a lot of institutional memory, experience and support given to candidates with winning potential. If any citizen with minimum qualifications can put their hat in the lottery, how successful can we expect them to be if they do not have political governing experience and ready support with institutional governing experience?

- Since such a system won't change the issues, I still see a diversity of views on issues, with the whole gamut of special interest advocacy around issues. This leads me to believe that there will still be political parties and that such parties would flood the lottery with as many potential candidates as they can in hopes of increasing the odds that someone supporting their issues is the one drawn from the lottery. I see fights in court over the criteria of who can qualify for entering the pool of candidates, or challenging specific candidates as not qualified, etc.

- As is the case now, those who may actually be best qualified and have the best temperament to be an elected representative in government may have other life goals and aspirations they are working towards and would not participate in the lottery. If we still get the same type of people as prospective candidates as we have now, we just won't be able to select the least worst option, it will be done by random selection. I think I prefer the opportunity to fight for the least worst than face the odds of getting the worst, which has the potential to be high if there are a lot of worsts.

- In our current party system, there is some pressure to conform to certain expectations as to political platform and objectives. Someone who gains office by chance alone did not get screened and vetted to get there (depending on how one becomes eligible for the lottery), does not have a base of support with expectations that the candidate feels bound to, to some degree. I see this as a loss of one type of check and balance on the behavior and actions of the candidate once in office. If the lottery provides only one term, then moderating behavior to meet expectations so as to achieve a second term is also lost. If there are no parties, then moderating behavior to preserve the reputation of the party would also be lost. In these cases, I see the risk of putting loose cannons in positions of governmental power.

- If society is largely polarized, candidates that with very extreme views, or of parties with very extreme views, might have more of a chance winning a seat by lottery than they would ever have in a general election. Is that potential outcome worth the risk?

So, it seems to come down to how a sortition system would ensure the quality of prospective candidates, and who's notion of quality would apply.
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
Several factors, mainly residential real estate.
I'm a retired real estate broker. I've seen the market over several years. Inflation has made home ownership a real challenge for most people. And, it was home ownership, the tax advantages and rising values, that allowed my generation to live well.

Housing, particularly in certain hot markets, is likely to pop in the next few years, I've heard that from others as well. But that isn't "long term" as in a generational or decades-long outlook. Markets wax and wane. It's not a reason for long-term panic.
 
To start, a concern would be how to determine what criteria might qualify someone to be eligible. I'm trying to view this in terms of current political offices in the US. Could any citizen of a state throw their hat in the pool to be selected as a Senator or Congressperson? I see that as disastrous. I don't see participation in the lottery being compulsory to the extent of jury duty, so the pool is limited to those with the personality to seek these offices, and if they must meet some qualification to participate, we are again putting a selective pressure on who will eventually serve, for good or ill.

If it were up to me, I'd leave it open to anyone with citizenship who has resided in the country for the past 5 years, hasn't opted out and is able to complete a preparatory course once selected. There would be 'reserves' for people who die, get sick, drop out etc.

I would imagine a large number of people of all demographics would be involved, not only because it is a chance to shape the direction of the polity, but also because they get paid more than the average worker.

The current system often favours exactly the kind of person you wouldn't want in power.

- Candidates that are part of a political party system are really part of a political team, with a lot of institutional memory, experience and support given to candidates with winning potential. If any citizen with minimum qualifications can put their hat in the lottery, how successful can we expect them to be if they do not have political governing experience and ready support with institutional governing experience?

A lot of that institutional memory relates to winning the horse race, and getting reelected. Many people are selected for ministerial positions not due to competence, but because they are good at playing the political game and horse trading their way to power.

There would be some elected officials though (maybe 50%), as some degree of experience is necessary and some degree of public input is important, but having a large number of unaligned MPs vastly weakens the power of the parties, and breaks the zero sum aspect of "the lesser of 2 evils" that keeps incompetent parties popular.

- Since such a system won't change the issues, I still see a diversity of views on issues, with the whole gamut of special interest advocacy around issues. This leads me to believe that there will still be political parties and that such parties would flood the lottery with as many potential candidates as they can in hopes of increasing the odds that someone supporting their issues is the one drawn from the lottery. I see fights in court over the criteria of who can qualify for entering the pool of candidates, or challenging specific candidates as not qualified, etc.

The lottery would contain too many people to influence in this manner. Parties aren't going to find millions of people who wouldn't otherwise have entered. Of course some party members would be selected by randomness, but that's perfectly ok.

- As is the case now, those who may actually be best qualified and have the best temperament to be an elected representative in government may have other life goals and aspirations they are working towards and would not participate in the lottery. If we still get the same type of people as prospective candidates as we have now, we just won't be able to select the least worst option, it will be done by random selection. I think I prefer the opportunity to fight for the least worst than face the odds of getting the worst, which has the potential to be high if there are a lot of worsts.

How many politicians do you see that you admire and respect?

At the moment most people would select Hitler if he was in "their" political party. The candidate is largely irrelevant, and is often exactly the wrong kind of person.

You wouldn't get the same kind of person as you'd be choosing from, I'd guess 30-70% of the eligible population.

- In our current party system, there is some pressure to conform to certain expectations as to political platform and objectives. Someone who gains office by chance alone did not get screened and vetted to get there (depending on how one becomes eligible for the lottery), does not have a base of support with expectations that the candidate feels bound to, to some degree. I see this as a loss of one type of check and balance on the behavior and actions of the candidate once in office. If the lottery provides only one term, then moderating behavior to meet expectations so as to achieve a second term is also lost. If there are no parties, then moderating behavior to preserve the reputation of the party would also be lost. In these cases, I see the risk of putting loose cannons in positions of governmental power.

At the moment, parties often make decisions that are supported by a tiny percentage of the population, simply because they need to appease their financial backers, party base, other politicians, etc. Everything is a calculated, and often cynical, balancing of interests.

Political debate is toxic and polarising, and many actively despise the "other side" which is a disaster for social unity.

Selected officials don't have the same pressures and can vote according to what they feel is right. The point of randomness is that it balances out. Of course there would also be procedures for dealing with political misconduct.

Most people, I believe, would govern responsibly.

What makes you think the average person might not?

- If society is largely polarized, candidates that with very extreme views, or of parties with very extreme views, might have more of a chance winning a seat by lottery than they would ever have in a general election. Is that potential outcome worth the risk?

Randomness from a large sample will roughly balance out most of the time. Sometimes it will lean left, other times lean right, but it would be very unlikely to select extremists in large numbers unless they form a significant % of population, in which case they can win elections.

I'd say there is far less chance of fringe views gaining power than via an election, especially in proportional representation systems where coalitions are generally required.

So, it seems to come down to how a sortition system would ensure the quality of prospective candidates, and who's notion of quality would apply.

Just a basic level of competence, and randomness to balance out.
 
Centralized organization can be defined as a hierarchy decision-making structure where all decisions and processes are handled strictly at the top or the executive level. Managers and employees lower in the chain of command are limited in the decision-making processes and can rarely implement .

You need to read the whole sentence ;)

Decentralised structures have a hierarchy, it's just that people lower down the chain have increased autonomy and are empowered to make decisions themselves as they are closer to the problem and it maximises the knowledge and skills of the entire organisation

Now we have cleared up your misunderstanding, do you accept that the modern trend in organisations is towards decentralisation?

intelligence is an important factor to consider when fitting the cooperative citizen to a job.

What kind of job do you think you would have got?
 

joe1776

Well-Known Member
You need to read the whole sentence ;)

Decentralised structures have a hierarchy, it's just that people lower down the chain have increased autonomy and are empowered to make decisions themselves as they are closer to the problem and it maximises the knowledge and skills of the entire organisation

Your definition renders these words useless. Centralized and decentralized represent both ends of a range on authority. Tight control at the top (centralized) and greater control at the other (decentralized). However, the real power of the hisrarchy is at the top.

In a democracy, decisions should reflect the will of the majority of the people. In the USA, the majority will can be obstructed by moving the decision to the states (decentralizing). We had to fight a bloody civil war because a handful of states wanted to keep slavery legal. Our supreme court just moved the abortion issue to the states, a blow to the majority will.

There are some decisions that can only be made at the local level. However, as a general rule, if the decision CAN be made at the top of the hierarchy, it SHOULD be made at the top because the country's foremost experts can be assigned to the task. Sadly, in the USA, the government's decision will likely be made by the biased experts of an interested industry.
 
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MikeF

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
MikeF said:
So, it seems to come down to how a sortition system would ensure the quality of prospective candidates, and who's notion of quality would apply.

Just a basic level of competence, and randomness to balance out.

I think it's a hard pass for me on implementing some form of sortition in our large, complex society. I'd much prefer a system that at least attempts to strive for a superior level of competence in potential candidates.
 
I think it's a hard pass for me on implementing some form of sortition in our large, complex society. I'd much prefer a system that at least attempts to strive for a superior level of competence in potential candidates.

If you were selected, would you do your best?

How many current politicians do you think qualify as both honest and having superior competence?

How many current politicians would you happily replace with a random member of society (perhaps a bank manager, or an electrician or a doctor or a social worker)?

Do you not think it important to weaken the power of money, special interests and political parties and the fostering of bad faith dishonest politics that is simply expedient and benefits the politician at the expense of the people?

What reforms would you implement instead? (surely you can't think the status quo is desirable)
 

joe1776

Well-Known Member
If you were selected, would you do your best?

How many current politicians do you think qualify as both honest and having superior competence?

How many current politicians would you happily replace with a random member of society (perhaps a bank manager, or an electrician or a doctor or a social worker)?

Do you not think it important to weaken the power of money, special interests and political parties and the fostering of bad faith dishonest politics that is simply expedient and benefits the politician at the expense of the people?

What reforms would you implement instead? (surely you can't think the status quo is desirable)
Replacing our biased, bought-and-paid-for decision-makers with grade C unbiased decision-makers would be an upgrade, I agree. But, if you're going to go through the very difficult process of changing the old entrenched political system, I'd want to shoot for grade A decision-makers.
 
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MikeF

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
I'm going to rearrange the order of your questions a little:

Do you not think it important to weaken the power of money, special interests and political parties and the fostering of bad faith dishonest politics that is simply expedient and benefits the politician at the expense of the people?

My answer to this group of questions is an unequivocal yes. :)

That being said, sometimes a solution that may fix or eliminate one problem may create other, unintended or unforeseen problems(or even foreseen with careful consideration).

If sortition were to solve the above (which I'm not saying it will), I believe it would create other weakness that may even be worse (in my inadequately informed, non-professional opinion).

If you were selected, would you do your best?

In my experience, well-meaning people can be naïve, inadequately informed, not have the capacity to comprehend certain complex problems, have bias, overly rely on the expertise of others without sufficient background or understanding to evaluate the product of a presented expert, or to evaluate conflicting advice from multiple "experts". In addition, not everyone has the personality to manage people or creativity with which to find novel and efficient solutions to problems.

In regards to myself, I would attempt to do my best, and compared to the population as a whole I think I would do a better job than most, but there are those who would be a hundred times better than me at governing, managing, and solving political problems. Given the size of the population, that means there are plenty of people who are more suited to governing than myself, no matter how just and earnest I might be.

How many current politicians do you think qualify as both honest and having superior competence?

I'll take this question as rhetorical as I have no way to give a reasonable or informed answer. Even a politician who today appears squeaky clean publicly my simply be a politician who's dishonesty is yet to be discovered.

What I find interesting in this question is that there is almost a subtle assertion that it will have to be either/or. We can have honest politicians but of only average, functional competency, or we can have superior competence but a high probability of dishonesty.

It is my opinion that an honest, yet statistically person would be as harmful as a corrupt above average person in any high level government position.

How many current politicians would you happily replace with a random member of society (perhaps a bank manager, or an electrician or a doctor or a social worker)?

Yes, there are those politicians who glaringly stand out as ones we would happily replace with literally anyone else, but in seriousness, I would always much prefer they be replaced by someone with superior ability and who shares my values. :)

What reforms would you implement instead? (surely you can't think the status quo is desirable)

I am not a political scientist, nor do I have a hobby interest in the subject, so it would take some research and more than a bit of thought to give any kind of informed answer to this question.

Given that disclaimer, I see social systems as evolving, ever changing, and as such, see changes to the structure and rules of society as inevitable and necessary over time. So no, I am not for maintaining the status quo or inclined to conserve or preserve historical tradition simply for traditions sake.

It would seem to me that the most effective starting point would be to add some refinement to the Constitution. This is terribly difficult to do, by design, and in reality, given that whole states are polar opposite in goals and temperament from each other, no effective Constitutional amendments are likely.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I speculate that election reforms that enhances the voice of the political middle and attenuates political extremes may be helpful, but given the strength of the current two-party system in the US, I see that kind of reform as quite the uphill battle.

The reality is, things may have to get much worse before meaningful reforms can be made.

As a last note on sortition and the expectation of candidate qualifications, it might be useful to relate the practice and endeavor of politics to other professional pursuits. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, the sciences, and professional academia all have long and rigorous training pipelines that are designed to ensure high competence and suitability in those that ultimately complete their respective program, and not all that attempt will complete.

Now I'm not suggesting that only those with a PhD in Political Science and Governance should be eligible for consideration to elective office, rather, I am suggesting that in our current system of campaigning and running for office, there is a public vetting process in which a candidate must demonstrate their qualifications and level of competency in an environment in which they are in competition with other candidate under the same scrutiny. Sortition as you have described would eliminate this process of evaluation and verification, leaving us with essentially no standards.

I can't imagine you would want those who are to be doctors or engineers to be selected by lottery from the population as a whole. Why then would you entertain less professionalism in prospective politicians?
 
My answer to this group of questions is an unequivocal yes. :)

That being said, sometimes a solution that may fix or eliminate one problem may create other, unintended or unforeseen problems(or even foreseen with careful consideration).

If sortition were to solve the above (which I'm not saying it will), I believe it would create other weakness that may even be worse (in my inadequately informed, non-professional opinion).

Sorry, about the slow reply, been a bit busy but wanted to get back to you :)

I think the problem is that we overstate human ability to fine tune outcomes dependent on complex systems.

Every system has its downside, but I don't think the harms of electoral politics can be fixed by electoral politics.

In my experience, well-meaning people can be naïve, inadequately informed, not have the capacity to comprehend certain complex problems, have bias, overly rely on the expertise of others without sufficient background or understanding to evaluate the product of a presented expert, or to evaluate conflicting advice from multiple "experts". In addition, not everyone has the personality to manage people or creativity with which to find novel and efficient solutions to problems.

Some of the recent Presidents the US has elected: a career politician with declining cognitive abilities, a corrupt and dishonest businessman/reality TV star, a career politician from a connected family, a career politician from a connected family's son, a Hollywood actor, a peanut farmer.

A number of Senators/congresspeople seem to be both incompetent and deluded, and many of the others are craven and have to pretend they believe stuff just so Trump doesn't ruin their careers.

So we have inadequately informed people acting in bad faith, and the system guarantees this.

When only 50% ( or even 70%) of the politicians are elected, they cannot run the country based on what is best for them and their party, which the current system ensures.

This in turn breaks the zero sum current situation that drives the extreme polarisation and starts a positive cycle of 'deescalation'.

I'll take this question as rhetorical as I have no way to give a reasonable or informed answer. Even a politician who today appears squeaky clean publicly my simply be a politician who's dishonesty is yet to be discovered.

What I find interesting in this question is that there is almost a subtle assertion that it will have to be either/or. We can have honest politicians but of only average, functional competency, or we can have superior competence but a high probability of dishonesty.

It is my opinion that an honest, yet statistically person would be as harmful as a corrupt above average person in any high level government position.

As noted before, I don't think we are getting superior competence now.

Electoral politics by its nature attracts many of the "wrong type of people". The nature of party politics means the wrong type of people tend to survive the party politics best.

People who are good at playing the game win.

Yes, there are those politicians who glaringly stand out as ones we would happily replace with literally anyone else, but in seriousness, I would always much prefer they be replaced by someone with superior ability and who shares my values. :)

You will still elect many officials, you are just adding in the calming influence of those not beholden to getting reelected.

As we've seen with the Republican Party (but no doubt applies to the other side too, it just hasn't been as starkly highlighted), almost all politicians care more about reelection than anything else. They will happily do untold harm the nation if they get to keep their jobs.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I speculate that election reforms that enhances the voice of the political middle and attenuates political extremes may be helpful, but given the strength of the current two-party system in the US, I see that kind of reform as quite the uphill battle.

The reality is, things may have to get much worse before meaningful reforms can be made.

The modern media environment very much favours the extremes, the demagogues, manipulators and liars, etc.

In the very near future, we will be able to make flawless deep fake videos showing whatever we want and having anybody say whatever we put in their mouths.

AI will be exponentially better at manipulating social media and identifying how to push people's buttons.

Politicians are already exceedingly "professional" (i.e. good at getting elected by any means necessary).

These forces are going to get worse for the foreseeable future.

As a last note on sortition and the expectation of candidate qualifications, it might be useful to relate the practice and endeavor of politics to other professional pursuits. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, the sciences, and professional academia all have long and rigorous training pipelines that are designed to ensure high competence and suitability in those that ultimately complete their respective program, and not all that attempt will complete.

I don't think any job prepares you to make the wide ranging decisions required to run a country. Diversity of knowledge is thus a boon, and being astute can be as important as book intelligence.

People who think they are the smartest guy in the room will often make worse decisions than someone of average intelligence because they get caught up in fancy theories. The British finance minister, of genius level intelligence, crashed the pound on basically the first day of his job by making a decision so stupid a midwit would have been unable to make it. To paraphrase Orwell, some decisions are so stupid only an intellectual could make them.

But selecting only wealthy, social elites is also problematic as they don't understand most of the people or their experiences.

I think the decision making process would be massively boosted by the input of builders, nurses, plumbers, truck drivers, primary school teachers and farmers.

And it is obvious that people now don't make decisions based on detailed analyses of policies and their implications, but by toeing the party line.
 

MikeF

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Sorry, about the slow reply, been a bit busy but wanted to get back to you :)

Never a problem. Our conversation are always a pleasure.

I think the problem is that we overstate human ability to fine tune outcomes dependent on complex systems.

Every system has its downside, but I don't think the harms of electoral politics can be fixed by electoral politics.

Some of the recent Presidents the US has elected: a career politician with declining cognitive abilities, a corrupt and dishonest businessman/reality TV star, a career politician from a connected family, a career politician from a connected family's son, a Hollywood actor, a peanut farmer.

A number of Senators/congresspeople seem to be both incompetent and deluded, and many of the others are craven and have to pretend they believe stuff just so Trump doesn't ruin their careers.

So we have inadequately informed people acting in bad faith, and the system guarantees this.

When only 50% ( or even 70%) of the politicians are elected, they cannot run the country based on what is best for them and their party, which the current system ensures.

This in turn breaks the zero sum current situation that drives the extreme polarisation and starts a positive cycle of 'deescalation'.

As noted before, I don't think we are getting superior competence now.

Electoral politics by its nature attracts many of the "wrong type of people". The nature of party politics means the wrong type of people tend to survive the party politics best.

People who are good at playing the game win.

You will still elect many officials, you are just adding in the calming influence of those not beholden to getting reelected.

As we've seen with the Republican Party (but no doubt applies to the other side too, it just hasn't been as starkly highlighted), almost all politicians care more about reelection than anything else. They will happily do untold harm the nation if they get to keep their jobs.

The modern media environment very much favours the extremes, the demagogues, manipulators and liars, etc.

In the very near future, we will be able to make flawless deep fake videos showing whatever we want and having anybody say whatever we put in their mouths.

AI will be exponentially better at manipulating social media and identifying how to push people's buttons.

Politicians are already exceedingly "professional" (i.e. good at getting elected by any means necessary).

These forces are going to get worse for the foreseeable future.

I don't think any job prepares you to make the wide ranging decisions required to run a country. Diversity of knowledge is thus a boon, and being astute can be as important as book intelligence.

People who think they are the smartest guy in the room will often make worse decisions than someone of average intelligence because they get caught up in fancy theories. The British finance minister, of genius level intelligence, crashed the pound on basically the first day of his job by making a decision so stupid a midwit would have been unable to make it. To paraphrase Orwell, some decisions are so stupid only an intellectual could make them.

But selecting only wealthy, social elites is also problematic as they don't understand most of the people or their experiences.

I think the decision making process would be massively boosted by the input of builders, nurses, plumbers, truck drivers, primary school teachers and farmers.

And it is obvious that people now don't make decisions based on detailed analyses of policies and their implications, but by toeing the party line.

What can I say but that I agree with everything above. You have detailed very real and consequential problems that exist in the current US political system.

As an aside, apologies for being US-centric, it is simply easiest for me to apply the concept of sortition to what I am familiar with.

As a reply, I will focus on one sentence:

I think the decision making process would be massively boosted by the input of builders, nurses, plumbers, truck drivers, primary school teachers and farmers.

I think my main opposition t0 the concept of sortition is informed from my personal experience of the average citizen in circumstances such as local government meetings and public hearings, school board meetings, parent/teacher associations, jury duty, residential and commercial condominium associations, employees and co-workers etc. Given this experience with the average citizen, drawing randomly from this broad group of people with no prior intention to serve and no support system and no experience I see as a much worse prospect than what we currently have. And still, I think it will be a lot like jury duty in that those who have careers and lives that would be terribly inconvenienced will work hard to get out of the lottery. That leaves those who want to be there, for whatever reason, which is what we have now, self-selection to be a candidate. If out of the broad population of the eligible electorate, only 20% would make worthwhile political candidates, I would venture most of those would be ones to try and get out of serving. That leaves one big pool of not very competent candidates for your lottery. The odds seem pretty stacked that the lottery will land on a bad choice, in my view.

Although you have given lots of examples of bad or incompetent elected officials, they are not alone, but become part of a team with support. There are very smart people behind the scenes for many national politicians (because they get paid a lot, of course). I don't think this should be dismissed out of hand.

In the current system, we already have the the input of builders, nurses, plumbers, truck drivers, primary school teachers and farmers. Their input is provided at the ballot box, and it is these individuals, along with everyone else, that are putting into office all those politicians with which you find fault.

I am all for fixing the system, I just don't see sortition as the answer. I have had too much experience with the common man. :)
 

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