The most convincing argument is there is no evidence for any God.
Of course we are, how would you explain the fossil record?
| The Hominid Family Tree
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| | | | | mya = millions of years ago tya = thousands of years ago | | | | |
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You are starting with a strawman? "One of the main reasons the majority of nonhuman animals may experience more suffering than happiness in nature is that many more animals are born than can survive. The reasons behind these high mortality rates are rooted in the function of evolutionary processes and natural selection.
Evolution doesn’t optimize happiness, but fitness"
www.animal-ethics.org
Consciousness is a complex mental state. So?
"The important thing to know about these traits is that the ones that are more common in nature aren’t traits that maximize the animals’ wellbeing; they are traits that maximize the chances that animals who have them will continue to have descendants through time."
Not useless.
"positive and negative experiences (sometimes referred to as “states of welfare”) evolved as mechanisms motivating animal behavior that is more likely to lead to the animals’ survival, reproduction, or helping animals with similar genotypes to survive and reproduce (such as siblings). Ultimately, this leads to increasing the fitness of that animal, that is, promoting the transmission of the animal’s genetic information to new generations.
We must also note that while happiness and suffering exist because they can increase fitness, they are not perfectly adjusted to maximize it. In natural history, features determined by genetic inheritance are selected simply when they work well enough to make a difference for genetic transmission. It is not necessary for them to work perfectly. So, conscious individuals have positive and negative experiences even if they themselves will never reproduce or contribute in other ways to the transmission of their genetic information (that is, helping other individuals with shared genes to reproduce).
In natural history, sentience is selected for because in many situations it increases an animal’s fitness, by encouraging behaviors that increase their fitness and discouraging ones that don’t, through the experience of pleasure and pain. But in natural history, certain life histories are also selected that favor certain reproductive strategies. These strategies imply that only a fraction of sentient beings can survive past infancy, and those who do survive usually suffer because of inhospitable environments that they cannot avoid. Of course, there can be many individuals whose lives contain much happiness. The argument we have seen doesn’t mean that suffering necessarily prevails for members of all populations or species. But it provides a basic explanation of why it is prevalent for so many of them."
Suffering is a feedback mechanism critical for survival. A species just needs to get to the age of reproduction and be reasonable healthy. Suffering comes from illness and injury which cause a behavior most conducive to making it through the problem. It also keeps us in pair bonds and group bonds because it's uncomfortable to leave them. Also we remember suffering from periods of drought or food shortages and work to create solutions.
If we lived in a probabilistic reality, where we are just governed by probabilities we would see things like : most species don't survive as well as large areas of suffering from war, lack of food or pandemic.
We see all this. While the majority of humans are able to reach reproduction age and live reasonable lives there are terrible areas of suffering like the black plague, world wars and the 25,000 people who die every day, right now from lack of food.
It all points to a natural world without a theistic deity.