There's absolutely no market at the moment, so the odds are set by the bookies rather than reacting to market pressure. 3 years out, there's a whole lot of water to pass under the bridge though, which is why the odds are not far off a toss up.
Bookies are as non-base as you can get.
So you are pretty much certain that the 'pubs are done for, yet consider the stock market to be more likely to give you a 90c profit on $1 over 3 years?
For you not to take that bet, you'd have to consider the 'pubs have a realistic chance of winning or be wildly irrational.
Not at all I expect a consistant 5% gain over many years in the Stock Market. With Gambling my losses exceed my wins to the point, that I could buy a house with them if I had them. People that gamble never are happy with just one win and give all there winnings back, I know. With the stock market there is risk and reward like gambling but if you force yourself to be long term you usually end up ahead. Of course I'm never going to win 400 million but in 40 years of gambling I never won more than 600.00 at one time and as I said lost more than around 50,000 over the 40 years.