The Situation in Egypt

[Sunstone]

that maybe so! which leads to the frightening scenario of a split in the army, Between the old senior officers and the younger lower ranks.

Not good. What do you think are the odds of civil war, Kai?

 

[kai]

Not good. What do you think are the odds of civil war, Kai?

I think everything is possible at the moment,all the balls are in the air at the same time, this is one tense situation, I believe the Army is telling the people you will get what you want, but not today.

The Army wants order not chaos but will the younger officers make a play for ousting Mubarak before September ?I am not sure .

i may think differently in a hour though!there is so much conflicting information around.

 

[EiNsTeiN]

There is not a possible chance for a civil war. The people are united in a great way.

 

[Sunstone]

I think everything is possible at the moment,all the balls are in the air at the same time, this is one tense situation, I believe the Army is telling the people you will get what you want but not today.The Army wants order not chaos but will the younger officers make a play for ousting Mubarak before September not sure.

I agree. Everything is up in the air.

i may think differently in a hour though!there is so much conflicting information around.

Spot on!

 

[Sunstone]

There is not a possible chance for a civil war. The people are united in a great way.

That's reassuring.

 

[kai]

There is not a possible chance for a civil war. The people are united in a great way.

I hope your right!

 

[EiNsTeiN]

The case in Egypt is totally not like Iraq or Lebanon. We do not have much divisions.

 

[Alceste]

I dont believe that Mubarak isn't consulting with the Army , if the Army is that fractious then thats another worry.

There was a consultation of the military and Suleiman that he was not invited to. Today or yesterday, I think. It seems he's effectively out of it but there are technical problems with amending the costitution without a president. The military may have shuffled him off to the side as far as operations are concerned while allowing him to retain his title until certain legal obligations are met. Who knows at this point.

 

[Alceste]

Correction, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces met without Mubarak or Suleiman, then released a statement pledging that the legitimate demands of the protesters would be met. Not sure which ones they think are "legitimate". That's what prompted all the speculation he would be stepping down. I think he's gone mad, personally. I don't think he has the support of the military but he doesn't care. He's not going to budge.

 

[Bismillah]

The military is most definitely in contact with Mubarak's regime, if not directly with the figurehead only because Mubarak is now deemed irrelevant. The fact is that Suleiman is the new representative of the authoritative Egyptian government and the Egyptian military has had years of economic and political success under the current authoritative government.

Regardless it is also just as naive to believe that the military will issue enact a Tienanmen Square style crackdown on the protesters. They have recognized the potency and power of the protesters and as long as the protesters keep up the pressure on the government they will be respected.

We have seen attempts to placate and divide these men and women, they have failed. I would be more concerned about the military's reaction were these protesters to acquiesce to some of the government's demands only to protest again. But that is not the case and with the addition of Union and workers their demands are strengthened.

 

[Sunstone]

I don't think he has the support of the military but he doesn't care. He's not going to budge.

If he doesn't have the support of the military, then he's a paper man.

 

[EiNsTeiN]

The Army doesn't support him, it just honors him.

 

[Bismillah]

Einstein I think many officials in the Army do in fact support the authoritative government even if they publicacly denounce Mubarak.

The man himself is now irrelevant, what is in question is whether this government will be allowed rule. What we see is that Suleiman is the same type of man with the same interests in preserving state power.

The army has profited immensely and constitutes a giant share of Egypt's economy. The idea of a civilian government would be very worrisome to those senior officers who would see their political and economic power subverted.

What is also as important though is the rank and file and the fact that he very much closely relates to the protesters. But I believe that the army has a vested interest in how things develop and would be just a critical of any interim government propped by the military.

 

[EiNsTeiN]

We can not predict whats going to happen. The supreme council met without Mubarak or Soliman, and issued a very serious statement supporting all the requests of the people.
Does this mean that the Army denounced Mubarak and Soliman and is willing to start a temp military ruling?

No one can tell until the Army issues the second statement.

 

[Alceste]

I'm going to have a go at guessing. I think the military is staging or has already staged a coup, and Mubarak is finished. I think they're trying to do it carefully and avoid unnecessary casualties and leave him a few scraps of dignity, but he is not cooperating. I don't think he'll make another public speech unless it's an unambiguous resignation. Once the military finally comes out and announces their plans, they will attempt to use force to clear the streets if people don't start to wander off on their own. Hopefully their plan will include meeting the opposition's key demands, which (let's face it) are completely reasonable.

Just guessing, as I said. Looking forward to another news day tomorrow.

 

[kai]

The army said in what it called "Communique No 2" that it "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency

as soon as the current circumstances end

".

It endorsed the transfer of President Mubarak's powers to his vice-president, General Omar Suleiman, and guaranteed a free and fair presidential election, constitutional changes and "protection of the nation".

The army also urged "the need to resume orderly work in the government installations and a return to normal life, preserve the interests and property of our great people".


BBC News - Egypt crisis: Army in pledge to end state of emergency


It seems the army wants the protests to stop:

"as soon as the current circumstances end"


I think the Army is interested in stability in Egypt over Mubarak and the protesters, this is a serious time for the protesters they need to be very careful in escalating the protest. the Army could see that as not beneficial to "Egypt"

 

[Sunstone]

Basically, the Army has backed Mubarak. Or at the very least, the senior command has.

I guess the next question is, will it fire on the people if they don't disperse?

 

[kai]

Basically, the Army has backed Mubarak. Or at the very least, the senior command has.

I guess the next question is, will it fire on the people if they don't disperse?

I think they have backed the current regime (and pushed Mubarak to the side )on the basis of guaranteeing the protesters demands but gradualy not all at once now. I think they want stability until September.

i believe they are in control now.

 

[Sunstone]

I think they have backed the current regime (and pushed Mubarak to the side )

Good point.

 

[kai]

The military statement said the army will ensure that reforms proposed by Mr. Mubarak are carried out as planned, including a the eventual lifting of 30-year-old emergency laws that enabled the government to keep tight control on Egyptian citizens. The statement also promised that the presidential election scheduled for September will be free and fair. The military urged protesters to return to their homes.

Egypt's Military Backs Transfer of Power to Vice President | Middle East | English


but Its hard to trust sources now.


My question is, do the protesters trust the Army to be Guardians of the change ?