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The Tax Cuts

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
Ultimately, it may be too soon to make any firm conclusions about how impactful the tax cuts will eventually be; but given that the US economy is already experiencing strong economic growth, and given that virtually all the signs point to an economy operating at full employment—and therefore, at full capacity—such sweeping reforms that have been at least partly designed as an economic stimulus could well be dangerous. --The International Banker.

It's true economics is a largely uncertain discipline, especially when it comes to making accurate forecasts, but I think it is even more true that most Americans don't know enough economics to fairly judge the field. Hence, you get myths that it is of little or no value at all, which even a child might wisely see through by countering, "If so, why does every major corporation employ its own squad of in-house economists? Are corporations charitable organizations these days?"

Does the above International Banker quote make perfect sense to you? Or does it perhaps seem strange to you that a tax cut plan designed to boost the economy "could well be dangerous"? I'm genuinely -- and I hope non-judgmentally -- curious how many of us reading that quote were instantly aware it was talking about the risk that the tax cuts could boost the economy so much they might ignite inflation? That's a very basic economic fact - one no one doubts, except perhaps those many of us who know nothing about it.

I'm no economist, and most likely neither are you, but why on earth should that matter to us?

We're humans and therefore know it alls. I'm even quite certain that when God wrote the American Constitution he wrote into it the sacred right of all peoples on earth to think they know everything. Even James Madison's blasphemous amendment separating church and state can't change a right as fundamental as that one.

So I'd like to hear your views on the most likely consequences of the cuts. Go for it!
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member
Classical economics from my background states exactly what that quote indicates - an overheating economy.

The one thing we know for sure having had it illustrated on both the national and state levels is that tax cuts increases the deficit. California, a high tax state, has a serious surplus and outstanding economic growth. Kansas, the latest failure of the tax cut religion wound up with increasing deficits to a critical level.

As a fiscal conservative, or precisely one who does not believe that debt can increase forever, I think we're going to be in trouble sooner rather than later due to the tax cuts which went overwhelmingly to the people on the top.
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Sounds all good till you begin to dissect it. "The US economy" and the prosperity of the masses are two different things. The gross national income may be there, but it's flowing into the coffers of the billionaire class, banks and corporations, not into the pockets of the people.
Compared to fifty or sixty years ago, the jobs are poorly paid and insecure, with few benefits and no pensions. Keep in mind, 200 years ago the American South had full employment.
 
It's true economics is a largely uncertain discipline, especially when it comes to making accurate forecasts, but I think it is even more true that most Americans don't know enough economics to fairly judge the field. Hence, you get myths that it is of little or no value at all, which even a child might wisely see through by countering, "If so, why does every major corporation employ its own squad of in-house economists? Are corporations charitable organizations these days?"

I'm not sure this logic follows. Corporations pay lots of money to people to predict things like oil prices, yet evidence shows such predictions are worthless (see for example: Future Babble - Dan Gardner).

Re economists:

How many economists were loudly warning us of a coming financial crisis in 2007? (Certainly a lot less than half).

Given we generally have no way of judging an individual economist, what are the odds that this one is one of the 'good' ones?

For what reason should we consider any individual economist's prediction to be anything more than noise given the high chance that they are not one of the 'good' ones?

Has the economist in question staked a significant amount of their personal money on their prediction? If not, why should I trust someone who won't put their money where their mouth is?
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
I'm no economist, and most likely neither are you, but why on earth should that matter to us?

I'm no economist either, although I still like to make jokes about them just the same.

supply-side_economics.jpg


---

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?

---

Q: How many conservative economists does it take to change a light bulb?

A1: None. If the government would just leave it alone, it would screw itself in.

A2: None, because, look! It's getting brighter! It's definitely getting brighter!

A3: None, they're all waiting for the unseen hand of the market to correct the lighting disequilibrium.

---

An economist is someone who doesn't know what he's talking about - and make you feel it's your fault.

---

A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The physicist says, "Let's smash the can open with a rock." The chemist says, "Let's build a fire and heat the can first." The economist says, "Let's assume that we have a can-opener..."


...

Edit: I had to laugh at something I found in this article, which points to a recent jobs report which said that there are more job openings now than people to fill them: There are now more job openings than workers to fill them

Low wage growth has puzzled economists, since employers should start paying more as workers become more scarce.
 
Last edited:

PureX

Veteran Member
Ultimately, it may be too soon to make any firm conclusions about how impactful the tax cuts will eventually be; but given that the US economy is already experiencing strong economic growth, and given that virtually all the signs point to an economy operating at full employment—and therefore, at full capacity—such sweeping reforms that have been at least partly designed as an economic stimulus could well be dangerous. --The International Banker.

It's true economics is a largely uncertain discipline, especially when it comes to making accurate forecasts, but I think it is even more true that most Americans don't know enough economics to fairly judge the field. Hence, you get myths that it is of little or no value at all, which even a child might wisely see through by countering, "If so, why does every major corporation employ its own squad of in-house economists? Are corporations charitable organizations these days?"

Does the above International Banker quote make perfect sense to you? Or does it perhaps seem strange to you that a tax cut plan designed to boost the economy "could well be dangerous"? I'm genuinely -- and I hope non-judgmentally -- curious how many of us reading that quote were instantly aware it was talking about the risk that the tax cuts could boost the economy so much they might ignite inflation? That's a very basic economic fact - one no one doubts, except perhaps those many of us who know nothing about it.

I'm no economist, and most likely neither are you, but why on earth should that matter to us?

We're humans and therefore know it alls. I'm even quite certain that when God wrote the American Constitution he wrote into it the sacred right of all peoples on earth to think they know everything. Even James Madison's blasphemous amendment separating church and state can't change a right as fundamental as that one.

So I'd like to hear your views on the most likely consequences of the cuts. Go for it!
Since the new tax cuts will effect no one, significantly, except the wealthiest few, and they are already obscenely wealthy, I see no reason to think they will have much of an effect, at all, except to place even more money and power in the hands of a small fraction of people who will use it to further their own interests: i.e., bribing congressmen and senators, buying elections for their paid political toadies, starting pointless wars for profit, and creating ever more gigantic monopolies for themselves, so as to further price-gouge the American consumer on nearly everything they have to buy, to live, while keeping their wages so low they can barely afford to live.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
I've been partial towards the economists who, since Obama, warned our economy is in a very fragile bubble that is very easy to burst, with the best scenario being we see a stagnant economy like Japan's, with the worst being we go into an economic depression. And as the economic recovery since Bush Jr's recession has been a "numbers" improvement with the working class and poor not seeing the gains for themselves, I do think our economy is a house of cards.
 

David1967

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Since the new tax cuts will effect no one, significantly, except the wealthiest few

Blatantly untrue, though a popular slogan anytime taxes are cut for anyone regardless of income by a Republican. And please define wealthy. I am lower middle class, and I now get to keep more of what I make. How is this a bad thing?
 

dfnj

Well-Known Member
Ultimately, it may be too soon to make any firm conclusions about how impactful the tax cuts will eventually be; but given that the US economy is already experiencing strong economic growth, and given that virtually all the signs point to an economy operating at full employment—and therefore, at full capacity—such sweeping reforms that have been at least partly designed as an economic stimulus could well be dangerous. --The International Banker.

It's true economics is a largely uncertain discipline, especially when it comes to making accurate forecasts, but I think it is even more true that most Americans don't know enough economics to fairly judge the field. Hence, you get myths that it is of little or no value at all, which even a child might wisely see through by countering, "If so, why does every major corporation employ its own squad of in-house economists? Are corporations charitable organizations these days?"

Does the above International Banker quote make perfect sense to you? Or does it perhaps seem strange to you that a tax cut plan designed to boost the economy "could well be dangerous"? I'm genuinely -- and I hope non-judgmentally -- curious how many of us reading that quote were instantly aware it was talking about the risk that the tax cuts could boost the economy so much they might ignite inflation? That's a very basic economic fact - one no one doubts, except perhaps those many of us who know nothing about it.

I'm no economist, and most likely neither are you, but why on earth should that matter to us?

We're humans and therefore know it alls. I'm even quite certain that when God wrote the American Constitution he wrote into it the sacred right of all peoples on earth to think they know everything. Even James Madison's blasphemous amendment separating church and state can't change a right as fundamental as that one.

So I'd like to hear your views on the most likely consequences of the cuts. Go for it!

"There's a reason":


What are you going to do? Everywhere else in the World is probably worse (except parts of Europe).
 

Thermos aquaticus

Well-Known Member
Classical economics from my background states exactly what that quote indicates - an overheating economy.

The one thing we know for sure having had it illustrated on both the national and state levels is that tax cuts increases the deficit. California, a high tax state, has a serious surplus and outstanding economic growth. Kansas, the latest failure of the tax cut religion wound up with increasing deficits to a critical level.

As a fiscal conservative, or precisely one who does not believe that debt can increase forever, I think we're going to be in trouble sooner rather than later due to the tax cuts which went overwhelmingly to the people on the top.

It is rather strange for a political party to complain about the national debt and then pass a bill that decreases the amount of money coming in that could pay down that debt. If I had increasing debt every month I wouldn't go to my employer and ask them to pay me less so that I could decrease my debt. That makes no sense.
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
It is rather strange for a political party to complain about the national debt and then pass a bill that decreases the amount of money coming in that could pay down that debt. If I had increasing debt every month I wouldn't go to my employer and ask them to pay me less so that I could decrease my debt. That makes no sense.
I agree, but let's not forget that the tax changes also
included an increase in the form of lost deductions.
Ref....
https://money.usnews.com/money/pers...-tax-deductions-that-will-disappear-next-year
And if the net effect of the tax changes is increased revenue,
it is of questionable cromulence to label them as "tax cuts"
when the financial reality is more complex.
Ref...
Trump Tax Cuts: Are They Paying For Themselves? | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD
 

sun rise

The world is on fire
Premium Member

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
True that deductions many less than wealthy depend on are going away with the benefit, in dollar terms, flowing to the wealthy.
The wealthy are seeing massive tax increases on their mansions.
But I've never seen a tax cut since 1975 that wound up increasing revenue and history tells me it won't this time.
Bush's "tax cuts" were followed by a tax revenue increase just a couple years later.

Are you disagreeing that the tax changes included any tax increases?
Are you saying that tax revenue has actually declined?
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Blatantly untrue, though a popular slogan anytime taxes are cut for anyone regardless of income by a Republican. And please define wealthy. I am lower middle class, and I now get to keep more of what I make. How is this a bad thing?
The take-home pay increase you see is only temporary, unlike the permanent cuts for the rich. It's there to buy you off for a few years till the new situation becomes well established.
What you gain in your paycheck will be offset with decreased and more expensive social services, fewer deductions, &c.
 

Shadow Wolf

Certified People sTabber & Business Owner
Blatantly untrue, though a popular slogan anytime taxes are cut for anyone regardless of income by a Republican. And please define wealthy. I am lower middle class, and I now get to keep more of what I make. How is this a bad thing?
What we have now are temporary cuts to our taxes; the wealthiest of Americans got theirs indefinitely. Also, though we pay less in taxes, we'll be paying more in other areas where funding has been cut, suffer with reduced service and quality, and those on SNAP, Medicare/Medicaid, and other programs are going to have less.
 

PureX

Veteran Member
Blatantly untrue, though a popular slogan anytime taxes are cut for anyone regardless of income by a Republican. And please define wealthy. I am lower middle class, and I now get to keep more of what I make. How is this a bad thing?
How much more?

Every economist on the planet agrees (except the ones being paid by the Fox Network) that the vast majority of this latest republican tax cut goes to the wealthiest few among us, meaning the top 1%, who already have and control most of the wealth in the Unites States. So do most of the members of the republican party. So this fiction that you are engaged in is not even being supported by the people who made the tax cut possible. Nor even by the wealthy few that are benefitting from it.
 
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