Ok...a scene setter first.
In another thread, the following was posted, and it seemed worthy of it's own thread;
I find this a pretty interesting topic, and thought this was a very reasonable assessment of the impact of the Treaty of Versailles, and it's impact or otherwise on leading to the rise of the Nazi's, and hence WW2. But I also wanted to respond, which meant this warranted it's own thread.
I'll compose my thoughts on this and respond below, but obviously all are welcome.
In another thread, the following was posted, and it seemed worthy of it's own thread;
While I do agree with you very much in essence, and certainly applaud your stance on Hitler as opposed to Sterling, I would suggest that I am not quite sure that Germany was fated as a result of Versailles to become a fascist nationalist state, and certainly not to the extremity of National Socialism.
Nationalism yes, imperialism yes but a person looking at the TREATY objectively in 1919 would likely have considered the possibility of a resurgence of a republican version of Wilhelmine Germany rather than the ideological, biologically racist and totalitarian state that Germany became.
Had Hitler not founded National Socialism and become a politician, I believe that an authoritarian right-wing nationalist, along the lines of Hugenberg's DNVP, would have become Chancellor of Germany in the early to mid-thirties.
Versailles was hard on Germany, however that is to be expected when one loses a war, especially in the early 20th century before the foundation of the UN and international conventions. By the standards of the time it was not excessively harsh. The Germans were forced to disarm, the Rhineland was occupied by Allied troops, the war clause lay sole responsibility for the war on Germany, she was stripped of her colonies, France occupied and took the proceeds from the coal region bordering her and she had to pay reparations totalling nearly £300 billion in today's money.
Nonetheless Germany had lost the war and when France lost to Germany in the Franco-Prussian wars of the 19th century, Germany treated France a lot harsher. The new Germany had taken Alsace and Lorraine from France at the end of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871, as well as imposing a huge financial indemnity on a defeated France. As Niall Ferguson points out, post WW1 Weimar Germany was able to afford the Reparation repayments, if only they had had the political will to pay up on time and in full and if the Great Depression had not occurred in 1929. Gustav Stresemann, had he not died, may have steered Germany down a successful, largely peaceful yet nationalist course that would have avoided WW2 and the rise of Nazism. He was enormously popular in Germany.
Compared to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, imposed on Russia by Germany in early 1918, Versailles was a "slap on the wrist" in the words of one eminent modern historian. Check it out and it will give you an idea of what a victorious Imperial Germany would have been like. Far harsher than Versailles.
The Allies could have marched into Berlin and occupied Berlin and all of Germany. They could have divided Germany up amongst themselves. The Germans only lost small amounts of territory and that was largely territory that the Germans took from other countries in the 1800's. In comparison, the Turks lost their entire Ottoman Empire and Constantinople, the capital, was even occupied by the allies.
A more moderate Nationalist leader might been radical and reactionary but also mentally balanced and negotiable. Germany could still have been a respected member of the League of Nations and capable of real diplomacy.
He would likely have pursued a quiet policy of territorial expansion, gradually but through feigned statesmanship repealing the dictates of the Treaty and re-incorporating Germans into the Reich. Such a leader would likely not have pursued the extreme lebensraum policy of the Third Reich which was directed not only towards rectifying the territorial diminutions of the Treaty but at acquiring new land that had never been part of Germany. It was this policy, more than any other, which caused the Second World War. It was entirely avoidable, and would have been even if Germany had embraced an authoritarian, nationalism but shot of Nazism IMHO.
I therefore do not think that Czechoslovakia would have been occupied after the concession of the Sudetenland to such a Germany, nor do I think that Poland and Russia would have been invaded, nor do I believe that territory expansion would have proceeded as swiftly and forcefully as it did under the Third Reich regime.
Finally, the despicable anti-Semitism and biological racism of the Third Reich would never have materialized. There would have been no Holocaust, no mass murder of disabled people and the classification of certain groups as "untermensch" (sub-humans).
I do not think that Germany was fated to become fascist. After the Wall Street Crash of 1929, coupled with the Versailles Treaty, it was uniquely positioned to become an authoritarian, nationalist state with similarities to WW1 Germany. It was not necessarily destined to embrace an amplified, German variant of Mussolini's fascist ideology, the racialism of Nazism and so forth...
It could quite easily have gone down the same path as innumerable authoritarian states that sprung up in the 1930s but which were not anything near as abhorrent and dangerous to humankind as Nazi ideology.
I find this a pretty interesting topic, and thought this was a very reasonable assessment of the impact of the Treaty of Versailles, and it's impact or otherwise on leading to the rise of the Nazi's, and hence WW2. But I also wanted to respond, which meant this warranted it's own thread.
I'll compose my thoughts on this and respond below, but obviously all are welcome.