Well if there is a poster on RF who might know, I suppose it would be you. And I am at the mercy of your expertise here.
I'm no expert in anything. But I've broad experience in transportation
(GM Truck & Bus) & aerospace (Northrop & others). It's a
useful broad perspective, despite my lack of expertise.
A couple of thoughts:
1) if we were able to send rockets to the moon with just electricity, Tesla would be all over it. So I acknowledge that combustion can provide much more energy. But the question here is whether we can provide adequate energy. Your post would seem to answer this with a no. And perhaps I should take and accept just that. But knowing what you do in both engineering and working with defense contracts is this the end of the discussion?
I simply advise making progress in EVs, & then
applying the technology wherever it makes sense.
2) Is it possible you have been out of the game long enough or worked in a sector removed enough to not answer this with such certainty?
As I said, I'm no expert in anything. And I've long
been out of the industries. However, the basics of
logistics remain the same. Ya gotta get the soldiers
& materiel where needed, with proper support.
I find the argument for all EVs on a strict schedule
to be a fantasy. It's public knowledge that we'd
need a huge change in battery, electricity generation,
infrastructure, & experience first. Those are so far
off that any estimates would be unreliable.
3) I have heard tales of military proving math equations years before the public sector provided solutions. If this is true of math, how true is it of various technologies?
I've not heard of that. But math is merely tool to
model the real world. The quality of the results
is limited by the quality of the assumptions.
And those are currently vaporware...so to speak.
4) Also of note, when we land on a way to do something that works well enough, it starts to carve a path where future innovation utilizes past solutions and leaves other paths, which would perhaps lead to equally effective or in some cases more efficient solutions, untrodden. Is it possible something like this has occurred with the combustion engine?
There's also room for improving IC engines, eg,
adiabatic (almost) engines using more ceramic
components. Technology should advance on
parallel paths, with results guiding change.
5) your assessment seems to indicate where potential pitfalls reside, but doesn’t explain why these pitfalls cannot be surmounted.
Parallel research programs to see where they lead.
EV & hybrid tech has great potential for civilian &
non-combat vehicles. That should & will expand.