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Three Little Boxes
- Thread starter Jayhawker Soule
- Start date
Yep. Same.
Kathryn
It was on fire when I laid down on it.
Dawny, the formula only works because the game show host KNOWS what is behind the doors. It's not truly random after you make your first choice.
Badran's answer is the "non-mathematical" reasoning that makes the most sense to me. It is unlikely that you just happened to pick the correct box. There is more of a chance that the gold is in one of the two other boxes you didn't pick since there's two of them and only one of yours.
Circle_One
Well-Known Member
Marble
Rolling Marble
I don't get it eighter, and I do believe that the chances are 50% - 50% for brown/green.
Proof that rational people can be tricked by analatical statistics.
It is not one problem but two. If you want to think it is one problem lets play the game and I guarenty you will never win.
50 trials is not enough to prove this. The mythbusters do not always get it right either.
What ever you people want to believe, I have learn something in this thread how to deceive people at odds. It can be used to my advantage.
First any probabilty test to be close to accurate would involve 1000 or more attempts.
Monty Hall likes you.
There are 3 boxes he opens one before you pick your odds are 50/50
Monty Hall doesn't like you
He opens the box after you pick but allows you to pick either box after he opens one. According to the RF analytics the odds are better to pick the one you don't have.
The great thing and why this lives for ever is that it doesn't matter its a 50/50 outcome and unless you do 1000 or more tests you can fight about this forever but people like Monty Hall can use it to take advantage of you.
Monty Hall likes you.
There are 3 boxes he opens one before you pick your odds are 50/50
Monty Hall doesn't like you
He opens the box after you pick but allows you to pick either box after he opens one. According to the RF analytics the odds are better to pick the one you don't have.
The great thing and why this lives for ever is that it doesn't matter its a 50/50 outcome and unless you do 1000 or more tests you can fight about this forever but people like Monty Hall can use it to take advantage of you.
I got it in the middle of the night, although I went for the 50 50 option to start with. If you think of it (correctly), the only time luck is involved is the first stage. If you get 'lucky', (one chance in three) and pick the right one, then you will lose because when you switch it, you get one of the wrong ones.
However, if you pick either of the wrong boxes, (2 out of 3) then the host removes the other wrong box, giving you 100% chance to win, when you switch. (2 of 3)
So you're only making a decision on the first guess. After that its just routine.
However, if you pick either of the wrong boxes, (2 out of 3) then the host removes the other wrong box, giving you 100% chance to win, when you switch. (2 of 3)
So you're only making a decision on the first guess. After that its just routine.
I realize the issue now
The OP is slightly different then the Monty Hall problem.
The Monty Hall problem, monty Hall will always open a bad box, He will never open the good box this skews the odds and links the two problems.
If the box was opened was truely random, it would sometimes be the best box and the two choices would not be linked and it would be a 50/50 result for the second choice.
So I'm good now with the 2/3 results as long as the box opened in question is a known result.
The OP is slightly different then the Monty Hall problem.
The Monty Hall problem, monty Hall will always open a bad box, He will never open the good box this skews the odds and links the two problems.
If the box was opened was truely random, it would sometimes be the best box and the two choices would not be linked and it would be a 50/50 result for the second choice.
So I'm good now with the 2/3 results as long as the box opened in question is a known result.
dawny0826
Mother Heathen
At least from the perspective of the "player".
Alex_G
Enlightner of the Senses
As has prob been said already, always switch.
3 boxes, 2 incorrect and one correct.
Situation 1, you pick a box that’s incorrect to begin with. The other incorrect box is revealed, leaving the correct box available to switch to.
Situation 2, you pick the other incorrect box to begin with, again the accompanying incorrect box is eliminated, leaving the correct box available to switch to.
Situation 3, you actually pick the correct box first time, one of the other incorrect boxes is eliminated, leaving an incorrect box to switch to.
Situation 1 and 2 warrant a switch, and situation 3 warrants a stick.
Statistically you are better of switching when all is in the dark.
3 boxes, 2 incorrect and one correct.
Situation 1, you pick a box that’s incorrect to begin with. The other incorrect box is revealed, leaving the correct box available to switch to.
Situation 2, you pick the other incorrect box to begin with, again the accompanying incorrect box is eliminated, leaving the correct box available to switch to.
Situation 3, you actually pick the correct box first time, one of the other incorrect boxes is eliminated, leaving an incorrect box to switch to.
Situation 1 and 2 warrant a switch, and situation 3 warrants a stick.
Statistically you are better of switching when all is in the dark.
Last edited:
lunakilo
Well-Known Member
What!
Link to youtube clip please or it doesn't count...
Edit: No Mythbusters comfirmed that people stick to their first choice even if that is not the smart move
Last edited:
lunakilo
Well-Known Member
I know how you feel.
I discussed this with a group of friend one night after too many beers.
I said that I was convienced the math was correct even if it didn't make sense to me intuitively.
Then one of my friends said:
"What if there are 10 doors?
say, you pick number 7.
The game host then opens 8 doors (all but number 3 and number 7)
What is the chance he gold is NOT behind door number 3?"
"If 10 doors is not clear enough for you try 100"
That is when I got it
lunakilo
Well-Known Member
Very good way of explaining it :clap
They covered both in the same episode.
-Whether people tend to switch or not.
-Whether switching affects odds of winning.